2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 5/23/2023 at 6 a.m. ET

College basketball has never been more of a year-round enterprise. From the coaching carousel to the transfer portal to early NBA draft entries, the roster of your favorite team might have changed since you clicked on this page. ESPN Bracketology has it covered during the entire offseason, with regular updates as we count down to the 2023-24 campaign. Opening night will be here before we know it.

Bracket Watch

For all the attention paid to big-name transfers such as Hunter Dickinson and Max Abmas, the truth is that their new schools -- Kansas and Texas, respectively -- were already NCAA tournament locks for 2024. (The Jayhawks, in fact, are the new No. 1 overall seed in this update.) To see the real impact of player movement, we have to dig deeper. Namely, we need to focus on bubble teams, for which a single offseason decision can mean the difference between the Big Dance and the NIT. In this update, a pair of surprises -- 6-foot-11 Tolu Smith pulling out of the NBA draft and returning to Mississippi State, preceded by Rutgers' leading scorer Cam Spencer making a late portal entry -- are enough to massively change the fortunes of two schools. Suddenly, the Bulldogs are off the bubble as a projected 10-seed, while the Scarlet Knights sink to the dreaded "First Four Out" list. It is indeed a whole new world.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (DALLAS)

Omaha

Salt Lake City

Memphis

Pittsburgh

WEST (LOS ANGELES)

Indianapolis

Spokane

Omaha

Memphis

EAST (BOSTON)

Charlotte

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Brooklyn

MIDWEST (DETROIT)

Indianapolis

Brooklyn

Spokane

Charlotte

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (DALLAS)

Omaha

Salt Lake City

Memphis

Pittsburgh

WEST (LOS ANGELES)

Indianapolis

Spokane

Omaha

Memphis

EAST (BOSTON)

Charlotte

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Brooklyn

MIDWEST (DETROIT)

Indianapolis

Brooklyn

Spokane

Charlotte

Conference Breakdown

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