2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 4/19/2022 at 08:00 a.m. ET

Will the Kansas Jayhawks become the first repeat champion in men's college basketball since Florida in 2006-07? That's among the questions to consider in the offseason prelude to the 2022-23 season, a period that will include a frenzy of transfer movement and the usual spate of NBA draft decisions. When the dust settles, Division I's 350+ teams will begin considering the march to the 2023 NCAA tournament, a journey that will end at Houston's NRG Stadium for the Final Four on April 1 and 3. ESPN will be there every step of the way with its 2023 bracket projections, evaluating the current state of the bubble and identifying the top seeds for the game's showcase event.

Bracket Watch

It is, of course, a fool's errand to compile any kind of "next year" bracket in college basketball. It takes an even bigger fool to attempt one with over 1,000 Division I players in the transfer portal. All of which suggests I am perfect for the job, as making an annual April fool of myself has become a true occupational hazard. That said, since doing the first "next year" bracket way back in 2005, we average right around two No. 1 seeds per year landing in the same spot on Selection Sunday (and about 20 at-large teams overall). Think of this merely as a starting point for the long wait until November, when the real fun begins again.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)

Columbus

1 Kentucky - aq
16 SIU Edwardsville - aq/
Texas So. - aq
8 Iowa
9 Colorado St.

Albany

Greensboro

Des Moines

WEST (LAS VEGAS)

Sacramento

Des Moines

Columbus

Denver

MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)

Birmingham

Denver

Sacramento

Orlando

EAST (NEW YORK)

Birmingham

Orlando

Albany

Greensboro

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)

Columbus

Albany

Greensboro

Des Moines

WEST (LAS VEGAS)

Sacramento

Des Moines

Columbus

Denver

MIDWEST (KANSAS CITY)

Birmingham

Denver

Sacramento

Orlando

EAST (NEW YORK)

Birmingham

Orlando

Albany

Greensboro

Conference Breakdown

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