Who will make the College Football Playoff?

The Allstate Playoff Predictor breaks down which teams have the best chance to make this season's College Football Playoff.


Week 5 of the college football season will feature four matchups in which both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25, and the one to watch could very well be Friday night when Utah visits Oregon State. As always, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives you a chance to look into the future and see the ramifications of this week's games.

For the past nine years, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has been painting a week-to-week picture of which teams have a realistic chance to be one of the four in the College Football Playoff, and overall, it has been pretty accurate, if we do say so ourselves. All nine champions were given at least a 65% chance to make the CFP before their championship season even began.

Using that stat and the criteria below to set the table, we give you the chance to pick a team and decide how its season will pan out. According to your choices, the Allstate Playoff Predictor will determine how likely that team is to be one of the four CFP semifinalists.

Choose one team

These are the 14 teams with the highest-percent chance to make the CFP, ordered from most to least likely.

How does {selected-team} finish the remainder of the regular season?

No team has ever made it to the playoff with more than one loss. Two-loss teams have an outside chance, but three or more losses all but exclude a team from the playoff, so that option isn't on the table.

Which {team-value} does {selected-team} lose to?

The three toughest opponents on the schedule are listed here with the percentage chance {selected-team} wins. Choose {team-count}.

Does {selected-team} win its conference title game?

The College Football Playoff committee greatly values conference championships (27 of 32 CFP selections have been conference champs), but it's not a requirement.

{selected-team}'s Chances

If the season plays out exactly as you've selected, the Allstate Playoff Predictor says this is your postseason outlook.

Sorry, this scenario either isn't possible or did not play out in enough of the 200,000 simulations run by the Allstate Playoff Predictor to be analyzed.

Make Playoff
Win Championship

These are your team's chances to win every game left on its schedule, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Matchup Date Win %

Week 5 games that matter to the CFP race

A weekend of strong matchups begins on Friday when two-time defending Pac-12 champion Utah, ranked No. 10 in the country, visits No.19 Oregon State.

Win %
Win %

September 29, 2023


9:00 PM on FS1


September 30, 2023


12:00 PM on FOX


September 30, 2023


7:30 PM on ABC


Edited by Chris Grandstaff.

Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Dominique DeMoe, Heather Donahue, Jarret Gabel and Rachel Weiss.

Data managed by ESPN Analytics: Matt Morris, Lauren Poe and Mitchell Wesson.