Who will make the College Football Playoff?

The Allstate Playoff Predictor breaks down which teams have the best chance to make this season's College Football Playoff.


We're two weeks into the 2021 college football season, and already, two top-five teams have suffered losses.

So how does this impact the College Football Playoff picture going forward?

For the past several years, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has been painting a week-to-week picture of which teams have a realistic chance to be one of the four teams in the College Football Playoff, and overall, it has been pretty accurate, if we do say so ourselves.

Using that stat and the criteria below to set the table, we give you the chance to pick a team and decide how its season will pan out. According to your choices, the Allstate Playoff Predictor will determine how likely that team is to be one of the four CFP semifinalists.

Teams with less than a 3% chance to make the CFP are not included.

Choose one team

Each of these 15 teams has at least a 3% chance to make the College Football Playoff. They are ordered from most to least likely.

How does {selected-team} finish the remainder of the regular season?

No team has ever made it to the playoff with more than one loss. Two-loss teams have an outside chance, but three or more losses all but exclude a team from the playoff, so that option isn't on the table.

Which {team-value} does {selected-team} lose to?

The three toughest opponents on the schedule are listed here with the percentage chance {selected-team} wins. Choose {team-count}.

Does {selected-team} win its conference title game?

The College Football Playoff committee greatly values conference championships (24 of 28 CFP selections have been conference champs), but it's not a requirement.

{selected-team}'s Chances

If the season plays out exactly as you've selected, the Allstate Playoff Predictor says this is your postseason outlook.

Sorry, this scenario either isn't possible or did not play out in enough of the 200,000 simulations run by the Allstate Playoff Predictor to be analyzed.

Make Playoff
Win Championship

{selected-team}'s Matchup Win Probability

These are your team's chances to win every game left on its schedule, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

Matchup Date Win %

Week 3 games that matter to the CFP race

Oklahoma faces its first Big 12 opponent since it announced it would be moving to the SEC. Speaking of the SEC, Alabama and Florida square off in a game with massive CFP implications.

Win %
Win %

September 18, 2021


12:00 PM on FOX


September 18, 2021


3:30 PM on CBS


September 18, 2021


7:30 PM on ABC

Run the numbers again

Editing by Matt Eisenberg

Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Heather Donahue, Jarret Gabel, Alecia Hamm, Lori Higginbotham and Sarah Pezzullo.

Stats & Information: Matt Morris, Lauren Poe, Mitchell Wesson and Paul Sabin