Workers Are Striking And Americans Are Into It: 9/18/23
Welcome aboard the Acela, listeners. Today on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we are taking a break from the campaign trail and heading to Washington, D.C., where theres quite a lot going on. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced last week that Republicans are opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. There are also just 12 days until a possible government shutdown. And some Republicans are threatening McCarthy's speakership. Politics reporter Leah Askarinam and POLITICO Playbook co-author and ABC News contributor Rachael Bade join Galen Druke to discuss. They also play a round of "Quiz of the Union," where they try to put this year's higher-than-usual number of strikes in the context of public opinion.
Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color: 9/11/23
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that youd usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald Trump and President Biden tied is to be trusted. What to make of a CNN poll showing Nikki Haley as the only Republican candidate with a lead over Biden that falls outside the margin of error. How to understand data from the New York Times suggesting that Biden is losing support among voters of color. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Carlos Odio of Equis Research and Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies to parse through which recent data is actually worth paying attention to and which is sound and fury.
Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?: 9/6/23
Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is as tradition goes when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment of the podcast, we ask a question we will undoubtedly return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trumps nomination inevitable? And if not inevitable, how can we place the likelihood he wins the GOP primary in historical context? We also have partial results from two special primary elections and we debate good or bad use of polling for a classic and controversial topic: internal polls.
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut: 8/28/23
This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of "good or bad use of polling" examples. They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate polling, whether Nikki Haley used polling well in her debate performance and more.
Lessons From A Trump-Less Debate: 8/24/23
The crew discusses their takeaways from the first Republican presidential primary debate in this late-night edition of the podcast.
What The GOP Primary Looks Like In The Early States: 8/21/23
Game time for the Republican presidential primary begins in earnest this week. The first debate is being held in Milwaukee on Wednesday, and it marks the beginning of a five-month countdown to the Iowa caucuses, during which there will be monthly debates, nonstop campaigning and a likely winnowing of the field. While this may be when the nation begins to tune in, folks in the early states have been tuning in -- either by choice or because of multimillion-dollar ad spending -- for months. And so, in preparation for the months ahead, in this installment of the podcast, we take in the view from the early states. To do that, Galen speaks with Katie Akin, politics reporter at the Des Moines Register; Josh Rogers, senior political reporter at New Hampshire Public Radio; and Joseph Bustos, politics reporter at The State in Columbia, South Carolina. They also play the second-ever installment of Guess Which Candidate Said This!"
Three Georgia Law Professors Weigh In On Trump's Indictment: 8/15/23
Former President Donald Trump has been indicted for a fourth time, now in Fulton County, Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in that state. While the alleged crimes in this case are similar in some ways to his previous federal indictments in special counsel Jack Smiths investigation, there are important differences. First, these are state crimes, based in part on Georgias racketeering laws, which have historically been applied much more broadly than federal racketeering laws. Second, and relatedly, the core of this case involves an alleged criminal enterprise, which has led to the indictments of 18 other people also involved in various ways in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Third, these being state crimes, the president has no power to pardon or commute a sentence in this case important when thinking about the possibility of a second term for Trump. And unlike the former presidents prior indictments in New York, Florida and Washington, D.C., Georgia allows its court proceedings to be televised. That could be a significant factor in how the public might process the indictment. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with a group of Georgia legal experts about what to expect from this case and what makes it distinct from Trump's other legal woes.
Who Is The Likeliest GOP VP Candidate?: 8/14/23
Abortion rights advocates notched another win in a red state. Last Tuesday, Ohioans voted by a 14-point margin not to raise the threshold to amend the constitution to a 60 percent supermajority. Instead, such amendments will continue to require a simple majority, making it likelier that Ohioans will pass an amendment to codify abortion rights in the state constitution this November. Most of the post-election analysis concluded that abortion is a major driver of turnout in elections now, and its hard to deny in otherwise low-turnout environments, but should we apply these lessons to high-turnout environments -- like the 2024 presidential election -- as well? The crew discusses in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. They also do a 2024 GOP vice presidential draft, in a world where former President Donald Trump wins the presidential primary.
Ohio Voters Weigh In On Abortion (Indirectly): 8/7/23
Tuesday is Election Day in Ohio and its a bit of an unusual one. Ohioans are voting on whether to increase the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from a simple majority to a 60 percent supermajority. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich about where the race stands and the broader trend of similar ballot measures. Galen also digs into the New York Timess first polls of the 2024 primary and general elections with Ruth Igielnik, the Times's editor of news surveys. Their surveys with Siena College during the 2022 midterms earned them the distinction of the best pollster in the country, according to FiveThirtyEight's ratings. At this point, their early data suggests that former President Donald Trump is far outpacing his rivals in the Republican primary and is tied with President Biden in general election polling. So, what should we make of that?
Emergency Podcast: Trump Charged In Jan. 6 Investigation: 8/2/23
Did former President Donald Trump conspire to defraud the United States, conspire to obstruct an official proceeding, actually obstruct that preceding and conspire to willfully deprive American citizens of their right to vote? Those will now be questions for a federal jury after a grand jury indicted the former president on four felony charges on Tuesday. In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what was in the Department of Justice's 45 page charging document, what comes next and how Americans are thinking about it.
July Was Hot As Hell. Do Voters Care?: 7/31/23
Calculations from the World Meteorological Organization suggest that July was the hottest month on record. Throughout the month, heat records were broken across the globe. Phoenix, Arizona, recorded 31 days in a row of temperatures over 110 degrees Fahrenheit and Sanbao, China, provisionally recorded the countrys all-time hottest temperature of 126 degrees. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Anthony Leiserowitz, the director and founder of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, about public perceptions of climate change, how extreme weather shapes those views and whether it's shaping our politics. Galen also speaks with Kaleigh Rogers and Nathaniel Rakich about some of the latest GOP primary polling and how changes to election law in both red and blue states will reshape how Americans vote in 2024.
Who'd Win A Trump-less GOP Primary?: 7/24/23
It is widely believed that former President Donald Trump will be indicted for a third time in the coming days or weeks, as he received a target letter from the Department of Justice last week. The potential federal charges involve the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election leading up to that day. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what Americans think about Jan. 6, Trump's role in it and whether he ought to be charged. They also draft a 2024 Republican primary lineup, under a hypothetical scenario in which Trump's legal woes catch up to him and the field is thrown open.
Why A Third-Party Candidate Poses A Threat To Biden: 7/17/23
Campaign finance figures from the second quarter of 2023 were released over the weekend. They offered a first glimpse at many of the presidential campaigns finances, since most candidates announced their bids during the second quarter. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew breaks down which of the 2024 candidates has been able to haul in the big bucks and who looks like they might have cash problems. Also, on Monday, the centrist group No Labels is hosting a town hall in New Hampshire featuring Sen. Joe Manchin and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. The group has said that they plan to run a moderate ticket in 2024 featuring one Republican and one Democrat (although not necessarily the two featured in Mondays town hall). Early polling suggests that such a ticket would pull more support from President Biden than former President Donald Trump in a potential rematch. But is that a good or bad use of polling, 16 months out?
What's So Special About 'Bidenomics'?: 7/10/23
Love it or hate it, this is President Bidens economy and hes taking credit for it. In recent weeks, Biden has been rolling out his economic pitch to Americans. It started with a high-profile speech in Chicago where he branded his policies as Bidenomics and positioned them in opposition to trickle-down Reaganomics. Since then, Biden and his campaign surrogates have fanned out across the country to make their pitch. This is coming at a time when Americans are quite pessimistic about the economy. In recent polls, less than a third of Americans say the economy is good. But still, economic data paints a relatively strong picture. The unemployment rate -- according to data out last Friday -- stands at 3.6 percent. Thats close to a 50-year low. And inflation, although it remains somewhat high, has fallen to 4 percent from a high of 9 percent last summer. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek, who covers the Federal Reserve and economy for the New York Times, and Neil Irwin, chief economic correspondent for Axios. They discuss how much of Bidens approach to economic policy is actually new, what it looks like on the ground and why Americans are so pessimistic.
How The Supreme Court Will Shape The 2024 Election: 7/3/23
The Supreme Court wrapped up its business for the term last week, closing out a docket that touched on the Voting Rights Act, affirmative action in university admissions, student loan forgiveness, business services to LGBTQ people, religious liberty and the power of state legislatures. It was another term with high-profile cases, coursing through the heart of some of Americas cultural debates. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses whether this years decision could ricochet through the political environment, as last year's decisions did. They also take stock of what more we've learned about a still quite new 6-3 conservative majority.
What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?: 6/26/23
It's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, business services to LGBTQ people and the power of state legislatures. In this installment of the podcast, we take a look at what various public opinion polls have found on affirmative action and ask whether it's a good or bad use of polling. We also explore what to make of RFK Jr.s relatively strong Democratic primary polling. Plus, the Republican presidential primary field has grown again, with the addition of former Texas Rep. Will Hurd. He joins a crowded anti-Trump lane. So whats up with all the anti-Trump candidates in a primary full of voters who like former President Donald Trump? And lastly, this weekend marked one year since the Supreme Courts decision in Dobbs. We consider how that decision itself may have changed public opinion.
Are Millennials Getting More Conservative?: 6/19/23
Theres been a lot thrown at Republican voters over the past few weeks. The field of primary candidates has doubled; the leading contender in the primary was federally indicted on 37 counts related to his handling of classified documents and alleged obstruction of justice; and a contest that had remained largely deferential to Trump has gotten more testy. In this installment of the podcast, pollster Kristen Soltis-Anderson and Washington Post data columnist David Byler join Galen to look at how Republican primary voters are processing the news and what they want from a presidential nominee. They also ask the timeless question: What is up with the kids these days? Various analyses have come to conflicting conclusions about whether millennials and young voters in general are bucking a generations-long trend of growing more conservative with age. And they play a new game called Which Candidate Said This?
How Trump's Classified Documents Case Could End: 6/13/23
Former President Donald Trump was arraigned on Tuesday at a federal courthouse in Miami in relation to his alleged retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice. He pleaded not guilty, setting in motion a trial that could potentially run in tandem with his campaign for president. In this installment of the podcast, Galen Druke speaks with law professor and legal analyst Kate Shaw about how the case will proceed and what the possible outcomes are.
Emergency Podcast: Trump's Indictment, The Sequel: 6/9/23
Former President Donald Trump was indicted on federal charges on Thursday related to classified documents he took from the White House. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the severity and possible political implications of the charges.
The GOP Field Gets Crowded: 6/5/23
By the end of this week, the number of major candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination is expected to grow to nine. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are all expected to jump into the race this week. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses how these candidates might shape the race. Also, the Republican National Committee announced the date and criteria for the first primary debate last Friday. The polling criteria are pretty notable, as there may not be that many polls that actually qualify. So is that a good or bad use of polling? And over the weekend, President Biden signed into law a suspension of the debt ceiling through January 2025 along with some cuts to federal spending.
There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now: 5/30/23
In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about whats in the debt ceiling agreement, why polls on the debt ceiling have been straight-up contradictory and what could happen if the legislation isnt passed by next Monday. They also discuss the significant increase in laws involving sexuality and gender in Republican-led states and what Americans think about them. And Galen speaks with senior writer Monica Potts about her new book, "The Forgotten Girls."
The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis: 5/25/23
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening remarks, he stressed his electability and the ability to implement a policy platform that may not look all that different from that of former President Donald Trump. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what DeSantis's presidential bid will look like. In FiveThirtyEight's national GOP primary polling averages, Trump currently leads at around 54 percent with DeSantis at around 20 percent, although these things can change quickly in a primary environment. In fact, they already have: Just a couple months ago, Trumps lead over DeSantis was half of what it is today.
Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP?: 5/22/23
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a reality this week. And, according to the Treasury Department we are just a week or so away from a possible default on the nations debt. National politics reporter at the AP Meg Kinnard and Data Columnist at the Washington Post join the crew to weigh in.
Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged?: 5/18/23
Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model to determine whether there really are biases advantaging or disadvantaging certain nations. Galen also speaks with Courtney Kennedy, vice president of methods and innovation at the Pew Research Center, who recently published a study showing that the polling industry of today bears little semblance to the polling industry at the start of the century. The days of real human beings randomly dialing landline phones are gone, but what does that mean for the accuracy of public opinion research?
Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel: 5/15/23
On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the state of those three races. They also speak with YouGov's Linley Sanders about a new poll showing that Democrats broadly trust news outlets more than Republicans, including even some right-leaning news outlets. And they look at how the public is reacting to last week's scandals involving former President Donald Trump and New York Rep. George Santos.
How Immigration Shapes American Politics: 5/11/23
Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at record highs and Americans give President Biden some of his lowest ratings on his handling of immigration. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Georgetown economics professor Anna Maria Mayda about what Americans think of immigration and why, its impacts on the U.S. and its politics, and how that compares with other countries.
Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular?: 5/8/23
King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers arent great, but in some ways that's beside the point. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks if polling non-democratic institutions is a good use of polling. They also look at a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Biden in a very early 2024 matchup. And they talk about the 2024 Senate races that are taking shape. Republican challengers to vulnerable Democratic incumbents are announcing their bids, and a number of them are repeat candidates from the 2022 midterms.
How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live: 5/4/23
For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that its only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. However, as he writes in his new book, "The Great Displacement," this time it wont be cheap housing, low taxes and plentiful jobs that attract people to new places. It will be a harshening climate that pushes them away.
Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024: 5/1/23
President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring. They also discuss last week's decision from the North Carolina Supreme Court, clearing the way for partisan gerrymandering in the state. And they ask whether Americans can be trusted to reliably tell pollsters which high school cliques they belonged to.
Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans?: 4/24/23
Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinsteins absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of money as early as June. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the latest developments and what Americans think about it all. They also dig into new data on Americas most and least popular senators and governors, and ask which animals American are and aren't willing to eat.
Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!: 4/21/23
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-themed trivia.
The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion: 4/17/23
The Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDAs approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. It means that for now the status quo stands, but in this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about where things could go from here. They also discuss South Carolina Sen. Tim Scotts pitch to Republican voters after the launch of his exploratory committee for president, and the potential impact of Montana Republicans attempts to change the states election laws for the 2024 U.S. Senate race.
Americans Are Feeling Better These Days: 4/13/23
According to Gallups National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were lonely a lot of the day yesterday, down from a pandemic high of 25 percent. Galen Druke speaks with director of the National Health and Well-Being Index, Dan Witters, to get an understanding of what American life satisfaction looks like today.
The Politics Of AI: 4/10/23
How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use of polling? In this installment, the crew discuss how reflective of public opinion a recent poll on AI was and why politicians have been slow to regulate it. They also turn their attention to the recent expulsion of two Tennessee lawmakers from the state House and a ruling from a federal judge in Texas that would revoke federal approval of a drug used in medication abortions.
The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday: 4/5/23
Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the countrys purplest states and its third-largest city. In Wisconsin, voters chose the liberal state Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz by a double-digit margin, flipping the ideological orientation of the court. And in Chicago, voters chose progressive Brandon Johnson as their next mayor in a very close race, ultimately rejecting the tough-on-crime alternative. The crew covers it all in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast.
Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023: 4/3/23
The crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last week's indictment. Also on Tuesday, voters will head to the polls to decide the balance of power on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the next mayor of Chicago. The crew also discusses former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson's entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted: 3/31/23
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case.
New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart: 3/30/23
In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year FiveThirtyEight is tracking what that looks like -- what legislation is being proposed and passed and how Republicans and Democrats are going about things differently. In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at new proposals on guns, tax and spending plans and identity.
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version): 3/27/23
After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about one of Americas favorite musicians: Is this a good or bad use of polling? Then they take a hard turn back into electoral politics, with the question: Who do Democrats want the GOP nominee to be, and what does that tell us about how theyre thinking about 2024?
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?: 3/23/23
All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorneys office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldnt be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and dont know about Trumps legal jeopardy and the possible political impact of an indictment.
The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back: 3/20/23
The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history.
The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census: 3/16/23
The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them."
Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998: 3/13/23
Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms.
Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm: 3/9/23
Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society and consider what to make of former president Donald Trumps gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling.
The Poll That Ended Dilbert: 3/6/23
Author Marianne Williamson officially entered the 2024 Democratic presidential primary on Saturday. Its very unlikely that Williamson will be a serious challenger to President Biden, but with multiple polls suggesting that a majority of Democrats dont want Biden to run for reelection, the crew asks if he might be vulnerable against the right challenger? They also take a look at the results of recent elections in Chicago, Wisconsin and Virginia to see if they hold any lessons about the national political environment. And they ask whether the poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist rant over was actually a meaningful poll.
Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless': 3/2/23
American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers across American markets and society on the whole. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused.
How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear: 2/27/23
To mark a year since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and author of the book Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end.
What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection: 2/21/23
It's a busy week! The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful.
Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination?: 2/16/23
This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls.
American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted: 2/13/23
The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. Were still waiting to find out what the deal is, but this focus on slow moving objects in U.S. airspace was kicked off by a Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down earlier this month. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling.
Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech: 2/8/23
President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. It was his first big national speech since the midterms and a preview of his likely 2024 reelection bid. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency.
How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did: 2/6/23
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time?
The Politics Of Loneliness: 2/2/23
Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America.
There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023: 1/30/23
Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling.
Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing.: 1/26/23
In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. Galen speaks with him.
What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common: 1/23/23
The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics.
California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy: 1/17/23
Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like.
There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right?: 1/12/23
As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the final episode.
What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP: 1/9/23
The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign.
How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics: 1/2/23
Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the second episode.
Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident: 12/26/22
Happy holidays! As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. This is the first episode.
The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump: 12/22/22
As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond.
What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms: 12/19/22
Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on.
Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters?: 12/15/22
As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024.
We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022: 12/12/22
With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump.
How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff: 12/7/22
The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff.
Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race: 12/5/22
Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar.
Is Democracy All Good Now?: 12/1/22
Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like.
If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will?: 11/28/22
Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft.
How The '90s Shaped Today's GOP: 11/21/22
Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s."
Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?: 11/16/22
Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022: 11/14/22
Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions.
When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate: 11/10/22
Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far.
The Red Wave Didn't Happen: 11/8/22
In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle.
The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk: 11/7/22
Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle.
The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending: 11/4/22
The crew previews what to expect on Election Day and listens to some of the most common types of campaign ads aired this cycle.
How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?: 11/2/22
Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk."
The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knifes Edge: 10/31/22
With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth.
Live From D.C. & This Is Model Talk: 10/27/22
In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms.
How A College Education Divides American Voters: 10/24/22
The crew discusses how much the two parties are spending on campaign ads and if it could factor into the forecasts shift. Then, Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio joins the pod to break down a new poll that asked Latino Americans which party they are favoring in the midterm elections. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics.
Dont Obsess Over The Crosstabs!: 10/20/22
Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22
The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here.
Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor?: 10/13/22
Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here.
From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict & What Is Shaping The Midterms?: 10/10/22
Its October and the surprises are rolling in. OPEC+ announced its cutting oil production by 2 million barrels a day, President Biden is talking about the threat of nuclear Armageddon and shoes keep dropping in the Georgia Senate race. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters?: 10/6/22
The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats?: 10/3/22
The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Theres A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress: 9/29/22
Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats: 9/26/22
The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Is Social Media Turning Us Into Political Extremists?: 9/22/22
Max Fisher, author of the new book, "The Chaos Machine: The Inside Story of How Social Media Rewired Our Minds and Our World," speaks with Galen about the impacts of social media on politics globally and in the U.S. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022?: 9/19/22
The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here.
It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls: 9/15/22
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners.
Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval?: 9/12/22
The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass.
What To Expect Between Now And Election Day: 9/6/22
Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy.
Why Sarah Palin Lost: 9/1/22
Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures.
Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics?: 8/29/22
The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July.
If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble: 8/24/22
Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing.
The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them: 8/22/22
What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives.
What Liz Cheney Might Do Next: 8/17/22
Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska.
Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin?: 8/15/22
In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.
Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle: 8/10/22
The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries.
Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?: 8/8/22
The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out.
Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion: 8/3/22
The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.
All The Political News You Missed Last Week: 8/1/22
The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump.
The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again): 7/25/22
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms.
Americans Arent Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.: 7/18/22
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling."
Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?: 7/14/22
In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond.
The Supreme Court Episode: 7/11/22
With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall.
Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?: 7/5/22
The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
The 2022 Forecast Is Live And Model Talk Returns!: 6/30/22
The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.
What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now: 6/27/22
The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections.
Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade: 6/24/22
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion.
Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil?: 6/21/22
The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization.
More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley: 6/15/22
Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. The crew recaps that race and other notable results from the June 14 primaries.
Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians?: 6/13/22
The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend.
Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement?: 6/8/22
The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances.
The Democratic Divides In California: 6/6/22
The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings.
Are Democrats Actually In Disarray?: 5/31/22
The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California.
Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails: 5/25/22
The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota.
Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia?: 5/23/22
The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment.
What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November: 5/18/22
The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days.
Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania?: 5/16/22
The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms.
The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws: 5/12/22
Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.
How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States: 5/9/22
The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups
The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion: 5/4/22
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade.
Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft: 5/2/22
The crew follows up on last weeks Republican 2024 primary draft with its first Democratic primary draft. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting.
How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right: 4/28/22
As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been.
Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft: 4/25/22
The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft).
Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency: 4/21/22
Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda.
How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office?: 4/18/22
The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries.
Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism: 4/14/22
Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy.
Why Alaskans Arent In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington: 4/11/22
The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically.
Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree?: 4/7/22
As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding.
Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble?: 4/4/22
The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week.
How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue: 3/31/22
Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics.
Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away?: 3/28/22
The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works.
The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jacksons Hearings: 3/24/22
Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be.
The Most Consequential Governors Races: 3/21/22
Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time.
What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP?: 3/17/22
The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
The Political Price Of Gas: 3/14/22
The crew discusses what high gas prices have meant for politics historically and outline the debates in Washington over how to bring those prices down. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time.
How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War: 3/10/22
Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict.
Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia?: 3/7/22
The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine.
Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas: 3/1/22
It was a night of firsts, with the first primaries of 2022 taking place in Texas and President Bidens first real State of the Union speech.
Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine: 2/28/22
The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression.
What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness?: 2/22/22
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine.
Is Boris Johnson Finished?: 2/17/22
Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact.
Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting: 2/14/22
The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. And they try to guess what Americans think about love and relationships in a Valentine's Day-themed game.
Americans Arent As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem: 2/10/22
Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue.
Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean?: 2/7/22
The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments.
Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters: 2/3/22
Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened.
The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked: 1/31/22
The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year.
Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring: 1/26/22
The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year.
Why Politicians Like Manchin And Sinema Go Rogue: 1/24/22
The crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling."
Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw: 1/18/22
The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting.
How Likely Is Another Civil War?: 1/13/22
In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it.
How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out: 1/10/22
The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted.
Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point: 1/4/22
In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today.
What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021: 12/27/21
The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. They play a game of "Guess What Americans Think," in which the panelists have to guess Americans' opinions on a wide variety of topics, including Elon Musk, inflation and Britney Spears.
Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better: 12/20/21
President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged.
How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP?: 12/13/21
According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent.
Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump?: 12/9/21
Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data."
Why Stacey Abrams And Beto ORourke Are Going For It In 2022: 12/6/21
On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. So, the usual.
What SCOTUS And Americans Think About Overturning Roe: 12/2/21
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy.
About Those 2024 Polls ...: 11/29/21
The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024.
What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For: 11/22/21
The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving.
What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver: 11/18/21
Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip.
The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling: 11/15/21
We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff.
This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change: 11/12/21
On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important.
Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy?: 11/8/21
Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of Buy, Sell, or Hold to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
A Good Election Night For Republicans: 11/3/21
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country.
Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond: 11/1/21
The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling.
Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond: 10/28/21
We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts."
What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats Spending Bill?: 10/25/21
The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill.
Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy: 10/21/21
Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could."
What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular?: 10/18/21
The crew talks about why President Biden's approval is underwater, what the consequences are for Democrats and what they can do about it. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana.
What Happens When Local News Disappears: 10/14/21
Local news is disappearing across the country. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes.
The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling: 10/11/21
The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company.
Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19: 10/7/21
Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic.
Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other?: 10/4/21
The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. They also address a listener question that suggests Republicans achieve their policy goals more often than Democrats.
How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data: 9/30/21
The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data.
Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed?: 9/27/21
The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity.
What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections: 9/23/21
It's a big election week for liberal democracies. The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing.
Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary?: 9/20/21
Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling.
The California Recall Election Wasn't Close: 9/14/21
In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin.
Will Bidens Vaccine Mandates Work?: 9/13/21
The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal.
Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days: 9/7/21
American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election.
Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas: 9/2/21
Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general.
The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What?: 8/30/21
As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war.
Model Talk: How Climate Models Work: 8/19/21
Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper.
What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan: 8/16/21
The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data.
Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns: 8/10/21
The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor.
Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen?: 8/9/21
The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker.
How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal: 8/4/21
The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden.
Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive: 8/2/21
The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom.
What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike: 7/29/21
The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic.
Does Running For President Always Help Your Career?: 7/26/21
Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020.
The Great Inflation Debate: 7/22/21
According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Economics Professor at George Washington University, Tara Sinclair, joins to explain what is going on with the economy and the potential consequences of a spike in prices.
Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?: 7/19/21
Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate.
Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling: 7/15/21
We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems.
A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean?: 7/12/21
The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are thriving is a good or bad use of polling.
Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Havent Gone Away: 7/8/21
Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics.
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