Stop chasing hot streaks on the fantasy baseball waiver wire

Did you pick up Asdrubal Cabrera just in time for his hot streak to cool down? So did many fantasy managers, and it's indicative of the way many approach these first weeks of the MLB season. Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy baseball success often hinges on your ability to be a bit of a fortune-teller.

It's easy to look at the track record of a player like Max Scherzer or Mike Trout and be fairly confident that their hot starts to the 2018 season are legitimate.

Somewhat similarly, when it comes to the very young and the very old, it makes sense to pair your level of trust inversely to the number of candles on their birthday cakes. By this I mean, with Ozzie Albies and Joey Lucchesi, I'm willing to buy in to their strong starts to the season a heck of a lot more than I am with Bartolo Colon, the No. 20 starting pitcher in fantasy scoring.

However, the majority of the league is going to fall into that gray area somewhere in between the two extremes. They'll have good weeks followed by bad weeks, and while not all player pendulums will swing as wildly -- or end up settling at the same level of overall performance -- most will end up in the same general neighborhood of fantasy production.

This is why I'm always ready to "zig" when a large portion of fantasy managers decide to "zag." Overreaction is always going to be a part of fantasy baseball. Sometimes, these rash decisions actually prove out to be the correct ones, but more often than not -- well, we call them rash decisions for a reason.

Let's take a look at two of the players who were among the most added/dropped from the past seven days.

Asdrubal Cabrera was added to a whopping 47.1 percent of leagues over the past week. With the New York Mets playing solid baseball, and Cabrera putting up solid stats April 5-10 (8-for-21, 3 HR, .381/.435/.857, 25 fantasy points), it's easy to see why folks were drawn to him like moths to a flame. And, of course, from April 11 to April 15, the story for Cabrera was quite different: 3-for-13, .231/.231/.308, four fantasy points.

Now let's look at Adam Duvall, dropped in 12.2 percent of leagues over the past week. Again, it's easy to understand why he was sent packing. From April 5 to April 10, he went 2-for-23 with 1 HR, .087/.160/.217 and minus-2 fantasy points. Surprise! No, he didn't suddenly become an MVP candidate, but since then, he's been more than respectable: 4-for-14, 1 HR, .286/.375/.571, 12 fantasy points during April 11-15.

This volatility from most hitters is why I'm typically dead set against making too many roster moves in the first month of the season. If you're always attempting to chase the hot players, you're usually going to end up catching them just about the same time that cold spell does. And, you just know that if you cut a recently underwhelming player to make that move, you're likely to be doubly snakebit when he ends up going on a blistering rampage at the plate.

So, if you are looking to shake things up and you simply can't help yourself from clicking away at the waiver wire, might I suggest you add players who have had a poorer Week 2 than their Week 1 and let loose the players who heated up a bit in Week 2 after a slow start.

Adding Shin-Soo Choo (34 Week 1 points, -5 in Week 2), Miguel Sano (26, -5), and Avisail Garcia (19, -4) to your Week 3 lineups while swapping out the likes of Justin Bour (6, 27), J.P. Crawford (-3, 23) and Wilmer Flores (2, 18) is probably the wiser course of action than keeping the status quo -- at least for the next seven days, anyway. After that, it's time to return to the crystal ball and cross your fingers if you're intent on trying to predict hot streaks.