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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

Cristian Javier of the Houston Astros has 48 strikeouts over 37 innings in 2022. Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

By Derek Carty

  • He's only available in 21% of ESPN leagues, but if he's there in yours, go get Cristian Javier. He's far and away the top pitching option on this slate, being both a talented pitcher with an elite supporting offense and facing one of the best possible matchups. He goes into Oakland to face baseball's worst offense, and he gets the third-best pitching weather of the day (one of just three games under 70 degrees).

  • Jordan Montgomery (78% rostered), Martin Perez (75%), and Ranger Suarez (67%) are also strong streaming options that are rostered in most leagues. But with four possibilities, you may find one of these guys out there on your wire to stream today.

  • We have to dig a bit to find a widely-available streaming option at pitcher, but the best appears to be Trevor Williams (less than 1%). He faces a weak Washington offense at home in pitcher-friendly Citi Field, but he is, of course Trevor Williams. He's more of a deeper league stream, so unless you can get one of the aforementioned four in your shallower leagues, I'd probably just skip out on streaming for today rather than risk blowing up your ratios.

  • If you have Luis Castillo (88%) on your team, make sure he's securely stowed on your bench today. He faces a very difficult matchup, going into baseball's third-best hitters park (Fenway Park) to face a strong Boston offense. THE BAT projects a 4.60 ERA for him, on average, in this matchup, so unless that sounds appealing to you, make sure you sit him out.

  • The Tigers and Twins play a double-header today, which means any of their hitters who start both games automatically go to the top of the streaming list. Volume is king in fantasy, even when we're talking about weak offenses like the Tigers. It's actually great to have a team like that in these games, because their hitters will actually be available to pick up. Spencer Torkelson (54%), Jeimer Candelario (47%), Jonathan Schoop (44%), and Robbie Grossman (39%) are all strong choices. On the Twins side, your best bet is likely Gio Urshela (16%).



Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday


THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today


Prop of the Day

Lucas Giolito Pitching Outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-140/+105)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Giolito putting up 15.4 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 35.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $32.29.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • THE BAT projects Giolito in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent level.

  • Rogers Centre grades out as the No. 28 stadium in the majors for walks, via THE BAT projection system.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

  • The Toronto Blue Jays projected offense profiles as the third-best on the slate today.

  • The Blue Jays have been the fourth-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to positively regress in future games

  • The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.6-mph in this contest, the second-best of the day for bats.

  • Giolito has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of facing eight same-handed bats in this game.