Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games
By Todd Zola
Monday's slate brings us 10 games, all evening affairs. The schedule is better suited to fortify hitting than pitching, but there are a few arms worth considering for streaming.
Brady Singer (11%) has recorded a 7.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over his last three outings, but he fanned 17 with no walks in those 15 2/3 innings. The issue was allowing three homers. On Monday, Singer and the Kansas City Royals visit the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have the ninth-lowest home run rate at home in the league. The last streaming option is the riskiest with Mike Minor taking the ball for the Cincinnati Reds in the desert against the Arizona Diamondbacks. On paper, the matchup is favorable as the Diamondbacks sport the third-lowest wOBA against southpaws, along with the third-worst strikeout rate. However, Minor has struggled in his first two starts, surrendering five homers in 8 1/3 frames.
Using several players from the same lineup (stacking) is a common ploy in DFS, but it can also be effective in traditional fantasy on abbreviated slates where there are more open active roster spots. The idea is a single event can result in multiple players scoring points, with one teammate knocking in another. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a great target for a Monday stack as they face Packy Naughton. The St. Louis Cardinals southpaw is the ranked as the third worst pitcher on the docket. Michael Chavis, Cal Mitchell, Jack Suwinski and Yu Chang are all available in over 95% of ESPN leagues.
A couple of standalone batters in a favorable spot include Luke Voit (29%) facing Cubs southpaw Justin Steele and Jose Siri (1%) drawing Taylor Hearn. Siri and all of the Houston Astros benefit from Sam Huff behind the plate for the Texas Rangers as Huff has difficulty controlling the running game.
Earlier, it was noted that the Diamondbacks are collectively weak against southpaws. However, right swinging Christian Walker (32%) is an interesting hitter for more than just this matchup. No other batter has improved his flyball exit velocity more, the primary driving force of power. Walker's average is low, but it's due to an unlucky BABIP on grounders. Look for Walker's power to maintain an elevated level while his batting average inches upward as more groundballs find holes.
Starting pitcher rankings for Monday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF -- 20%) at Rony Garcia
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF -- 42%) at Garcia
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF -- 42%) at Merrill Kelly
Lane Thomas (WSH, CF -- 6%) vs. Ian Anderson
Juan Yepez (STL, 1B -- 10%) vs. Mitch Keller
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B -- 32%) vs. Mike Minor
Nick Senzel (CIN, CF -- 1%) at Kelly
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B -- 2%) at Zack Thompson
Kole Calhoun (TEX, RF -- 12%) vs. Cristian Javier
Jordan Luplow (ARI, CF -- 0%) vs. Minor
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS -- 58%) vs. Brady Singer
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 51%) vs. Lance Lynn
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF -- 62%) vs. Cristian Javier
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 72%) at Alek Manoah
Javier Baez (DET, SS -- 68%) vs. Lynn
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B -- 97%) at Aaron Nola
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C -- 95%) vs. Mike Minor
Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B -- 56%) vs. Chris Archer
Salvador Perez (KC, C -- 96%) at Alex Wood
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 99%) vs. Sandy Alcantara
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today
Prop of the Day
Justin Steele Pitching Outs: Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100)
THE BAT sees Steele putting up 14.0 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 39.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $20.92.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
Wrigley Field has the fifth-deepest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball.
Wrigley Field has the seventh-tallest fences in MLB.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
The San Diego Padres have been the third-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to positively regress going forward
Wrigley Field grades out as the No. 6 park in the majors for batting average, according to THE BAT projection system.
The weather report calls for the fourth-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
The San Diego Padres have six hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Steele in this game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.