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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

With a potential innings cap looming in the future, better start Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays while you can. Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

  • Sunday's 12:05 p.m. ET early game features the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays wrapping up a weekend set in the Rogers Centre. After struggling the first three months of the season, Toronto starter Jose Berrios has posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in July, with 36 strikeouts (to only six walks) over 29.0 innings. His numbers would be even better, save for a .364 BABIP. Berrios is in a great spot to finish the month on a high note as the Blue Jays look to claim a playoff berth over the final third of the season. Detroit will hand the ball to Garrett Hill, who has managed a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three starts. The better Toronto batters are not likely to be found on waiver wires, but Raimel Tapia (8% rostered in ESPN leagues), Danny Jansen (7%) and Santiago Espinal (40%) are all in play as streamers, even though they hit at the bottom of the order.

  • Sunday marks the end of another head-to-head scoring period in ESPN leagues with only six more matchups remaining before the fantasy playoffs commence. The top spot-starter is Reid Detmers (13%) who has pitched well since being recalled earlier this month. In his three July starts, Detmers has recorded a 1.06 ERA and an 0.94 WHIP, with an impressive 19 strikeouts, six walks and no homers in 17 frames. He's been fortunate with a .256 BABIP in that span, but using his slider and changeup more while cutting back on curves and his four-seamer has helped induce weaker contact. Detmers will be facing a Texas Rangers lineup fanning at a 17% clip against southpaws over the last month.



Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday


THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday


Prop of the Day

Merrill Kelly Pitching Outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-165/+125)

PREDICTION:

THE BAT sees Kelly putting up 16.3 Pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 41.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $30.83.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

  • The Braves have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to negatively regress in future games

  • Kelly's fastball velocity has increased 1 mph this season (92.2 mph) over where it was last season (91.2 mph).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

  • The Braves projected offense grades out as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today.

  • Kelly has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing 6 same-handed batters in this matchup.