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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Wednesday's MLB games

Yusei Kikuchi of the Toronto Blue Jays had five strikeouts over five innings in his last start. Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Wednesday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

  • The calm after the storm. It took awhile to get going, but the 2022 MLB trading deadline came as advertised. Most of the key cogs of the deals will be in uniform with their new teams on Wednesday, but it's still important to track starting lineups since some pitching matchups may be affected. The slate begins early in St. Petersburg with the Rays hosting the Blue Jays at 12:10 PM ET. Yusei Kikuchi (35% rostered in ESPN leagues) takes the ball for the visitors. He's been one of the season's most frustrating starters, but he's coming off a solid effort last time out, his first start since coming off the IL. Tampa is more vulnerable to righthanded pitching but is also susceptible to southpaws.

  • There aren't many hurlers joining Kikuchi as streaming options, with Brady Singer (30%), Mike Minor (4%) and James Kaprielian (3%) the chief candidates. Singer has quietly posted a 26.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate for a 20.5% K-BB%, ranking an impressive 16th among pitchers with at least 80 innings. Singer's road matchup against the White Sox isn't ideal, but he's coming off tossing seven shutout innings in Yankee Stadium, fanning 10 along the way. Minor has struggled in his first season with the Reds, but he'll enjoy a park upgrade against a weak Marlins lineup. Kaprielian has a road date with the Angels and the least productive offense with a righty on the hill for the past month.

  • As usual, the trade frenzy shook up some bullpens. Devin Williams (49%) may lose some saves to newly acquired Taylor Rogers, but with Josh Hader joining Juan Soto in San Diego, Williams will benefit greatly. There was a chance Jorge Lopez (60%) would be dealt to a team where he would set up but look for him to continue closing with the Twins. Meanwhile, Felix Bautista (6%) inherits the gig for Baltimore. Bautista already has three saves, along with 56 punch outs in 43 1/3 frames. A.J. Puk (5%) should claim ninth inning duties for Oakland with Lou Trivino sent to the Yankees in the Frankie Montas deal.

  • A lot needs to go right go over a strikeout prop. The main obstacle is the hurler needs to be counted on to pitch deep into the game. Facing a strikeout prone team helps, as does being a strikeout pitcher. Of course, the line is adjusted accordingly, but it is still tempting to trust Sandy Alcantara to post another dominant effort against the Reds. Alcantara fanned 41 in 34 July innings while Cincinnati punches out at a generous 24% clip against righthanders.

  • There are some soft lefties slated to take the hill on Wednesday, though it's unfair to label Martin Perez soft. Still, Baltimore's Ramon Urias (56%), Adley Rutschman (25%), Jorge Mateo (17%) all enjoy the platoon edge on Perez and are thus in play for hitters to stream. A better trio is Minnesota's Jose Miranda (28%), Gio Urshela (20%) and Kyle Garlick (1%), all in a great spot facing Detroit southpaw Tyler Alexander. Lastly, Cleveland's Owen Miller (26%) and Oscar Gonzalez (2%) will help welcome Arizona rookie lefty Tommy Henry to the bigs.



Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B -- 7%) at Lance Lynn
Daniel Vogelbach (NYM, 1B -- 3%) at Anibal Sanchez
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B -- 28%) vs. Tyler Alexander
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE, RF -- 2%) vs. Tommy Henry
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF -- 50%) at Jose Urquidy
Tyler Naquin (NYM, CF -- 4%) at Sanchez
Gary Sanchez (MIN, C -- 36%) vs. Alexander
Gio Urshela (MIN, 3B -- 20%) vs. Alexander
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B -- 26%) vs. Henry
MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 13%) at Lynn


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Wednesday

J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS -- 74%) at Gerrit Cole
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B -- 57%) at Cole
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 76%) at Sandy Alcantara
Connor Joe (COL, LF -- 50%) at Blake Snell
Sean Murphy (OAK, C -- 71%) at Shohei Ohtani
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF -- 65%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL, C -- 74%) vs. Wheeler
Josh Donaldson (NYY, 3B -- 65%) vs. Luis Castillo
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 95%) at Snell
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B -- 60%) at Alcantara


Prop of the Day

Miles Mikolas Pitching Outs: Over/Under 18.5 (+110/-145)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Mikolas putting up 19.7 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $21.66.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • THE BAT X projects Miles Mikolas to throw 101 pitches today (8th-most of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Adam Hamari projects as a Extreme Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in this game.

  • Busch Stadium grades out as the #30 field in the league for walks, per THE BAT projection system.

  • Busch Stadium has the 2nd-deepest RF dimensions in MLB.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

  • This game projects for the 2nd-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

  • The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.4-mph in this game, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for hitters.