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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

Jack Flaherty is coming off the IL to help the Cardinals -- and fantasy teams -- in their quest for a championship. AP Photo/Morry Gash

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

  • Congratulations to everyone making the playoffs in head-to-head leagues as Labor Day kick off the fantasy postseason in ESPN leagues. Rotisserie-league managers should keep grinding with just four and a half weeks left and the attention of many being shared by those also playing fantasy football. The holiday action begins at 12:35 PM ET in Pittsburgh with the Mets visiting the Pirates. There are 13 games on the docket, buoyed by an old-fashioned single admission doubleheader in Camden Yards with the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles playing a pair with significant AL wild card implications.

  • Monday isn't the best day to find pitchers to give a spot start. The most intriguing option is Houston Astros rookie Hunter Brown (3% rostered in ESPN leagues), ticketed for his MLB debut against a Texas Rangers club coming off a tough weekend series in Fenway Park. The 24-year-old righthander fanned 134 hitters in 106 innings for Triple-A Sugar Land, yielding only five homers. However, he experiences control woes with 45 free passes, though most came early in the season. Working in Brown's favor is facing a Rangers lineup ranking below average in drawing walks while striking out at an above average clip.

    Los Angeles Angels southpaw Jose Suarez (7%) also checks in as a streaming candidate. The Halos host a Detroit Tigers offense with a below average wOBA and an above-average strikeout rate facing lefthanders. Suarez has pitched well since the break, posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 32 punchouts in 34 frames.

  • Jack Flaherty (66%) is set to come off the IL for a home date against the Washington Nationals. Earlier in the season, Flaherty appeared to be rushed off the IL, before he made just three abbreviated starts. This time, the St. Louis Cardinals were more cautious, keeping the righty on rehab with Triple-A Memphis for an extra start. Flaherty whiffed in in 6 2/3 innings, so he should be able to pitch Monday with no restrictions against a below-average Nationals lineup. If you've been stashing Flaherty on the fantasy IL, there is no reason to wait, the matchup is favorable. It's also worth checking to see if Flaherty is available, as one-third of those making the effort will be pleasantly surprised.

  • Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson have garnered most of the recent attention, but several other prospects have been promoted. They all won't play enough to be more than a fantasy streamer, but Tristan Casas (3%), Oswald Peraza (1%), Cal Mitchell (1%) all have prospect pedigree and should in action on Monday. Miguel Vargas (3%), Ben DeLuzio (1%), Connor Wong (1%), Ryan Kreidler (1%), Yainer Diaz (1%), Nate Eaton (1%) and David Villar (1%) also have games scheduled for Monday so it's worth checking if they're in their team's Labor Day lineup.

  • Two more players meriting attention are Spencer Torkelson (42%) and Lewis Brinson (1%). Torkelson was beginning to hit for Triple-A Toledo, so perhaps his second time in the bigs will be more fruitful. Brinson is well past prospect status, but the Giants have a knack for putting players in positions to succeed. Finally, Reds infielder Spencer Steer (1%) is off Monday, but he should get a lot of action down the stretch with Mike Moustakas out for the season.


Starting pitcher rankings for Monday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday


THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today


Prop of the Day

Logan Webb Pitching Outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-115)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Webb putting up 14.5 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 30.4% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $34.72.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • Logan Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher (56.5% GB% per THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium, the No. 4 HR venue in Mthe league.

  • Webb has relied on his change-up 9.2% more often this year (32.7%) than he did last year (23.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the best of all teams on the slate today.

  • Dodger Stadium projects as the No. 4 ballpark in the majors for home runs, according to THE BAT projection system.

  • Dodger Stadium has the lowest fences in the majors.

  • The weatherman calls for the second-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.