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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games
By Derek Carty
After the top tier of elite pitchers that are near universally-rostered, Jose Quintana (29% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the top pitcher on the board today. He's been terrific this season and gets a soft matchup against a weak Nationals offense, at home in pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium.
If you're a Brandon Woodruff manager, today is a day to keep him on your bench. As great as he is, he goes into Coors Field today... and it's 95 degrees. He projects for a 4.77 ERA and a 1.34 FIP, which isn't usable in any format.
On the other side of that game, the Milwaukee Brewers are the clear top offense to stream from today. They are the only team THE BAT X projects for over six runs, and their projected total approaches seven against Chad Kuhl. Rowdy Tellez (66%), Kolten Wong (65%), Andrew McCutchen (52%), Luis Urias (47%), Omar Narvaez (23%), Keston Hiura (2%), and Jace Peterson (2%) are all in play (depending on who is in the lineup).
Particularly for those looking for stolen bases, the Cubs against Justin Dunn also offer a terrific opportunity. Dunn is one of the absolute weakest pitchers in baseball and one of the easiest to steal off of once you reach base. Nico Hoerner (40%) and Rafael Ortega (1%) in particular project quite well for a steal today.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Riley Greene (DET, CF -- 18%) at Mayers
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 75%) at Valdez
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
Prop of the Day
Brandon Woodruff strikeouts: Over/Under 5.5 (-140/+110)
THE BAT X sees Woodruff putting up 5.3 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.5% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $20.70.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
Woodruff projects as the 17th-best pitcher in baseball when estimating his strikeout skill, according to THE BAT X.
The Rockies (25.1 K%, via THE BAT X) project to have the third-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
Edwin Moscoso, expected to be calling pitches in this game, profiles as a extreme hitter's umpire.
Coors Field grades out as the No. 30 stadium in MLB for strikeouts, according to THE BAT X projection system.
Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game projects for the hottest weather of all games on today's slate today at 96 degrees.
Woodruff has a large reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing six same-handed bats in this game.