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Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

Should you start Alex Cobb of the San Francisco Giants against the seemingly always-hot Atlanta Braves? Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

  • Monday offers up a short nine-game slate, beginning at 1:10 PM ET with the opener of a day-night doubleheader as the Miami Marlins host the Texas Rangers. In general, Rangers pitching has fallen short of expectations, but they have a chance to take advantage of a weak Marlins lineup to begin the fantasy week. Jon Gray (59% rostered in ESPN leagues) is on pace to be activated from the IL to pitch the nightcap. The former Rockies righty was pitching well before he was felled by an oblique injury. Gray did not have any rehab starts, so his pitch count could be limited, but he's still primed to pick up where he left off. Glenn Otto (2%) won't have any restrictions, although a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts has limited him to only five innings in each effort. That said, he's fanned 16 with just four walks in that span, so he registers as a streaming option against the 25th-ranked offense with a right-hander is on the hill.

  • Two games mean some batters will have twice the number of chances to produce. Josh Jung (8%) is the top option for the Rangers as the recent call-up will enjoy the platoon edge over Trevor Rogers while having a chance to play in both tilts. Jon Berti (20%) and Joey Wendle (9%) have a lot of allure for those wanting an early-week jump on stolen bases. As for closers, neither bullpen has a clear option, with Jose Leclerc (1%) and Jonathan Hernandez (3%) in play for the Rangers. Tanner Scott (8%) and Dylan Floro (14%) are the closing candidates for Miami.

  • In general, the Monday docket is not conducive to streaming starting pitchers. Alex Cobb (27%) of the San Francisco Giants should be rostered in well over half of ESPN leagues, but he has a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves. However, since it's at home, Cobb is viable. Ryne Nelson (2%) of the Arizona Diamondbacks stifled the San Diego Padres in his debut but asking for a repeat against the Los Angeles Dodgers is risky. Hayden Wesneski of the Chicago Cubs fanned eight Cincinnati Reds over five frames in his MLB debut, but he'll be hard-pressed to do it again in Citi Field against the New York Mets. Despite the challenging matchups, both Cobb and Wesneski are less risky than Nelson.

  • Mike Minor has a juicy matchup as his Reds host the punchless Pittsburgh Pirates. Minor has been a major disappointment in 2022, although he's pitched better of late. Considering that Pittsburgh has the league's fourth-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate against lefties, Minor still checks in as the day's top fantasy spot-starter.

  • With pitching help being rather scant, the better approach could be fortifying batters. As always, Derek Carty's THE BAT X provides several options below. Here are a few more names to consider, each with the platoon bump against a vulnerable hurler. David Fletcher (42%) and Jo Adell (4%) draw southpaw Konnor Pilkington. Jake Fraley (9%) is at home to face the Pittsburgh's Zach Thompson. Oscar Gonzalez (6%) is in a great spot for the Cleveland Guardians with Reid Detmers on the hill.


Starting pitcher rankings for Monday


Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.


Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Monday


THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today


Prop of the Day

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Home Runs: Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-650)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Guerrero Jr. putting up 0.30 home runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 27.1% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $32.77.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

  • This game projects for the third-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

  • The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.1-mph in this match-up, the second-strongest of the day for hitters.

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% - 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

  • Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage against Guerrero today.

  • Guerrero's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 95-mph EV last season has dropped off to 92.7-mph.