Fantasy Forecaster updated Monday, June 15, at 9:17 a.m. ET.
On tap: It's the busiest week of the season to date, as all 30 teams are scheduled to play on each of the seven days of Week 11. That's a product of interleague play Monday through Thursday; teams match up for home-and-home series of two games at either venue. Among the compelling meetings: A rematch of the 1987 World Series, pitting the Minnesota Twins, in second place in the American League Central, against National League Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals; a rematch of the 2003 World Series, in which New York Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka will make a start in South Florida against the Miami Marlins; and a battle of winter trade partners, the Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals, in which Steven Souza Jr. will face his former team.
These are the kinds of weeks I love: Full slates chock-full of two-start pitchers -- 60 of them (two per team, naturally) -- and no off-day wiggle room for teams to shuffle their rotations. It's an easy week to predict on the pitching side; the only changes should be those related to injury, performance or whether teams like the Boston Red Sox or New York Mets go back to six-man rotations.
There's quite a contrast in terms of matchups of rookie phenoms this week: Carlos Correa and his Houston Astros enjoy a two-game stop at Colorado's Coors Field, while Joey Gallo and his Texas Rangers visit Los Angeles' Dodger Stadium to face Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. On the pitching side, Noah Syndergaard and his New York Mets visit Turner Field to face an Atlanta Braves team that has averaged 5.20 runs per game in June, while Carlos Rodon and his Chicago White Sox get a series at the mightily left-handed-heavy Texas Rangers.
And speaking of rookie phenoms, Week 11 will mark the first full big-league weeks for both Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins and Francisco Lindor of the Cleveland Indians, both of whom were recalled on June 14.
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Monday's slate takes place entirely in the evening, so fantasy owners in weekly leagues have until 7 p.m. ET to set their lineups.
Remember that game times have tremendous influence upon #DFS planning, so be aware of every day's first scheduled pitch. This week they are (all times listed are ET): Monday, 7 p.m. (Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, on ESPN); Tuesday, 1:45 p.m. (Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals, one of five day games); Wednesday, 7 p.m. (Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, on ESPN2); Thursday, 1:05 p.m. (Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies, one of five day games); Friday, 7:05 p.m. (three games begin at that time); Saturday, 1:07 p.m. (Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, one of eight day games); and Sunday, 1:05 p.m. (Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, one of 14 day games).
This week's interleague series:
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox (2 games at Boston, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Atlanta, Wednesday-Thursday)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2 games at Baltimore, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Philadelphia, Wednesday-Thursday)
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (2 games at Pittsburgh, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Chicago, Wednesday-Thursday)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers (2 games at Detroit, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Cincinnati, Wednesday-Thursday)
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros (2 games at Houston, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Colorado, Wednesday-Thursday)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers (2 games at Texas, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Los Angeles, Wednesday-Thursday)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees (2 games at Miami, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at New York, Wednesday-Thursday)
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals (2 games at St. Louis, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Minnesota, Wednesday-Thursday)
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays (2 games at New York, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Toronto, Wednesday-Thursday)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals (2 games at Tampa Bay, Monday-Tuesday; 2 games at Washington, Wednesday-Thursday)
Cubs at Twins (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
As every American League team plays two of seven games in National League parks, the loss of the designated hitter isn't devastating, and it impacts each of those 15 squads equally. Fourteen of the 15 National League teams, meanwhile, play two of seven games in American League parks, meaning an equal gain in terms of at-bats for each of those squads. The 15th, the Cubs, play five games -- the final five days of the week -- meaning they're the one team getting a significant, and noticeable, advantage in terms of playing time.
The American League's most utilized DHs: Billy Butler, Athletics (59 G, 252 PA); Kendrys Morales, Royals (55 G, 232 PA); Evan Gattis, Astros (54 G, 222 PA); Prince Fielder, Rangers (49 G, 219 PA); Alex Rodriguez, Yankees (50 G, 218 PA); David Ortiz, Red Sox (50 G, 217 PA); Jimmy Paredes, Orioles (37, 157 PA); Adam LaRoche (38 G, 155 PA); Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (29 G, 126 PA).
Gattis, A-Rod and LaRoche might be the ones among these players at significant risk of lost PAs/fantasy value as a result of the two games in National League parks; Butler (no clear-cut Athletics first baseman), Morales (possible partnership at first base with Eric Hosmer), Fielder (too good to sit for the first baseman), Ortiz (he'll probably start at first base ahead of Mike Napoli against right-handers), Paredes (no elite Orioles second basemen) and Bautista (right field) have paths to playing time elsewhere. With the Yankees facing six right-handed starters, A-Rod is a less attractive shallow-mixed play, though he still could get as many as five starts plus two pinch-hitting appearances in Miami. The DH to sit is one not yet listed: Kennys Vargas, in a week when his Twins will battle Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez in St. Louis before facing three left-handers in their final five games.
National League hitters to exploit with the two games apiece of added PAs: Could Devin Mesoraco be activated to serve as the DH for the Monday-Tuesday games at Detroit, before then shifting to left field for some of the Reds' final five contests? Perhaps. Wilin Rosario gets a modest bump with two games as a possible DH the first two days of the week. Ichiro Suzuki could pick up two starts in right field, with Giancarlo Stanton the Marlins' DH, in their two games in New York. DH at-bats are always a plus for the Padres, who have a packed, defensively challenged outfield. Will Venable is a slightly more attractive NL-only play, as both of the team's games in Oakland will be against right-handed starters. The potential eight DH PAs added to the Nationals' offense is a boon to Tyler Moore and Clint Robinson, Washington's current first-base platoon.
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a projected Bill James Game Score for each day's starter.
Projected starting pitchers, June 15-21
P: The starting pitcher's projected Bill James Game Score, accounting for past history (three years' worth, as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. A "50" is typically deemed a "quality start" by this measure, while a "70" is considered a dominant start.
Justin Verlander (DL, triceps) rejoined the Detroit Tigers' rotation on June 13, lining him up for a Thursday start during Week 11. Meanwhile, Kyle Ryan, who made a spot start for the Tigers on June 5, will move into the rotation for the demoted Shane Greene beginning on Tuesday.
With Jason Vargas (DL, forearm) sidelined, the Kansas City Royals will move Joe Blanton into their rotation on either Wednesday or Friday of this week, with the latter the more likely scenario. Their June 14 postponement allows them to keep Blanton in reserve as an emergency fill-in for Yordano Ventura (fingers) on Wednesday, or Blanton could be held back until Friday, the latest date the team needs a fifth starter.
Ivan Nova (DL, Tommy John surgery) made a successful rehab start for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on June 13, and might be ready to rejoin the New York Yankees' rotation. He could be a candidate to replace Adam Warren, scheduled for Friday; Warren could have use out of the bullpen.
Allen Webster replaced Josh Collmenter in the Arizona Diamondbacks' rotation on June 13, and he pitched effectively enough that Webster should start again when that spot next arrives on Thursday of Week 11.
Mat Latos (DL, knee) rejoined the Miami Marlins' rotation on June 13, replacing Brad Hand and setting him up for a Thursday start during Week 11. Meanwhile, Jarred Cosart (DL, vertigo) made a rehab start for Triple-A New Orleans on June 11 and could rejoin the Marlins' rotation as early as Tuesday. He could replace either David Phelps on Tuesday or Jose Urena on Wednesday.
The New York Mets granted Dillon Gee a spot start on June 14, pushing their other starters back one day apiece. It appears that Gee's start will be a one-and-done, and that the Mets will revert to five starters for Week 11.
Due to their June 14 postponement, the St. Louis Cardinals pushed back their entire rotation by a day. John Lackey is now a two-start pitcher for them, while Carlos Martinez will make only one start, on Wednesday. Tyler Lyons, who replaced Lance Lynn (DL, forearm) in the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation on June 13, will take that turn again on Friday of Week 11.
Doug Fister (DL, forearm) made a successful rehab start for Double-A Harrisburg on June 12 and could be ready to rejoin the Washington Nationals' rotation by mid-week, perhaps Thursday in Joe Ross' place.
This week's pitcher rankings include the entire slate of projected starters, in order to provide a more organized approach to favorable matchups, DFS tidbits and the "Streamer's Delight" picks. Notes for relevant pitchers are included below.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Wed-TEX (Rodriguez): In the month of June, the Texas Rangers have .167/.261/.216 team triple-slash rates with a major league-high (by far) 34.5 percent strikeout rate versus left-handers; they also have accumulated the sixth-most plate appearances against them (116). No team, right now, is more susceptible to left-handers than these Rangers.
Chris Sale (CWS) -- Fri-TEX (Martinez): Ditto the Kershaw stat. They're far and away pitchers one and two as a result, and that's despite their one-start status.
Matt Harvey (NYM) -- Tue-TOR (Copeland), Sun-@ATL (Teheran)
Corey Kluber (CLE) -- Fri-TB (Karns)
Jake Arrieta (CHC) -- Mon-CLE (Bauer), Sat-@MIN (May)
Jacob deGrom (NYM) -- Fri-@ATL (Foltynewicz)
Max Scherzer (WSH) -- Fri-PIT (Burnett)
Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Wed-SF (Bumgarner)
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) -- Mon-@MIA (Koehler), Sat-DET (Sanchez)
Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Wed-@SEA (Hernandez)
Francisco Liriano (PIT) -- Mon-CWS (Rodon), Sat-@WSH (Gonzalez)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) -- Thu-CHC (Hendricks)
Danny Salazar (CLE) -- Wed-CHC (Hammel)
Johnny Cueto (CIN) -- Wed-DET (Price)
Sonny Gray (OAK) -- Fri-LAA (Shoemaker)
Tyson Ross (SD) -- Mon-OAK (Hahn), Sat-@ARI (Ray)
Gerrit Cole (PIT) -- Thu-@CWS (Samardzija)
Garrett Richards (LAA) -- Tue-ARI (Hellickson), Sun-@OAK (Kazmir)
David Price (DET) -- Wed-@CIN (Cueto)
Michael Wacha (STL) -- Tue-MIN (Gibson), Sun-@PHI (Williams)
Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Fri-STL (Lyons)
Dallas Keuchel (HOU) -- Mon-COL (Bettis), Sat-@SEA (Walker): The Colorado Rockies once again have that "terrifying at Coors, mediocre (at best) on the road" look: Their .291 wOBA in their past 12 road games ranks them 25th in the past month.
Chris Archer (TB) -- Thu-@WSH (Ross): Chris Archer versus Bryce Harper. Sometimes these matchups are just fun from a baseball perspective. But if you're wondering why Archer, who has baseball's best qualified ERA in the past month (1.09), ranks only 24th, it's as simple as the matchup: Harper and the boys have an eighth-ranked .333 wOBA against righties in the past month.
Zack Greinke (LAD) -- Thu-TEX (Lewis)
Jesse Chavez (OAK) -- Wed-SD (Despaigne)
Jose Quintana (CWS) -- Tue-@PIT (Morton), Sun-TEX (Gonzalez): Lefty number three to get that dream of a Rangers matchup, and Quintana's one of the three who makes two starts. Two-start value!
Carlos Martinez (STL) -- Wed-@MIN (Milone)
Carlos Rodon (CWS) -- Mon-@PIT (Liriano), Sat-TEX (Gallardo): Rodon, the subject of my Forecaster video, already has a 65 Game Score outing against these Rangers (June 4), and that was a road start at that. He had a career-high 10 K's in that game and 19 swings and misses, the latter a total exceeded only 26 other times by any pitcher all season.
Alex Wood (ATL) -- Wed-BOS (Kelly)
Scott Kazmir (OAK) -- Tue-@SD (Cashner), Sun-LAA (Richards)
Brett Anderson (LAD) -- Tue-@TEX (Gonzalez), Sun-SF (Lincecum): The fifth and final lefty to face the Rangers this week, Anderson is the "dark horse" of the bunch, and he's a two-start pitcher as well. That matchup helps alleviate any concern about the second turn versus the San Francisco Giants, against whom Anderson has posted three of his worst five Game Scores (29, 43 and 51) this season.
John Lackey (STL) -- Mon-MIN (May), Sat-@PHI (Harang)
Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) -- Wed-TB (Andriese)
Julio Teheran (ATL) -- Tue-@BOS (Miley), Sun-NYM (Harvey)
Jason Hammel (CHC) -- Wed-@CLE (Salazar): Hammel's an every-start type in fantasy terms nowadays, but the matchups risk needs be stated nevertheless: The Cleveland Indians have averaged 4.58 runs per game in their past 12 home games, with a .347 team wOBA (26 points greater than the league average).
Trevor Bauer (CLE) -- Mon-@CHC (Arrieta), Sat-TB (Ramirez)
Gio Gonzalez (WSH) -- Mon-@TB (Ramirez), Sat-PIT (Liriano)
Noah Syndergaard (NYM) -- Mon-TOR (Buehrle), Sat-@ATL (Perez)
Matt Shoemaker (LAA) -- Fri-@OAK (Gray)
Tanner Roark (WSH) -- Tue-@TB (Colome), Sun-PIT (Morton): He's a pitch-to-contact type whose limited strikeout potential detracts from some matchups and makes him a "no" in #DFS terms, but the Tampa Bay Rays are an extremely right handed-heavy offense, so that's an especially attractive matchup of these two.
Jon Lester (CHC) -- Fri-@MIN (Hughes): Lester might not seem his usual self - he has consecutive starts of a sub-30 Game Score - but this is more matchups-oriented than anything. The Minnesota Twins have baseball's worst team wOBA in June (.252), so it's a good time to draw them as an opponent.
Taijuan Walker (SEA) -- Mon-@SF (Hudson), Sat-HOU (Keuchel)
Lance McCullers (HOU) -- Fri-@SEA (Elias): The Seattle Mariners rank last in runs per game (3.16), third-worst in strikeout rate (23.4 percent) and sixth-worst in wOBA (.305) in home games.
Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Mon-CIN (Moscot), Sat-@NYY (Tanaka): There might not be a two-start pitcher with a wider range of possible outcomes this week than the unpredictable Sanchez. That Yankee Stadium matchup is the frightening one, for those of you in daily leagues.
Michael Pineda (NYY) -- Wed-MIA (Urena)
Shelby Miller (ATL) -- Thu-BOS (Buchholz): My gut tells me to rank him higher, perhaps by as many as 20 spots. But then I look at the Boston Red Sox's past-month, righty/lefty splits, and I see them with a 19-points-better wOBA against righties (.312, compared to .293).
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) -- Fri-@KC (Blanton): He has three straight quality starts to begin his big-league career plus a minor league track record of good command, and now is the time to draw the Kansas City Royals as a matchup, at a stage in their year where they've cooled somewhat.
Williams Perez (ATL) -- Mon-@BOS (Porcello), Sat-NYM (Syndergaard): His 51.6 percent ground ball rate can go a long way towards convincing me that Perez might have some "juice-the-orange" streaming appeal. It's the Fenway Park matchup that's the more frightening, if you play in a daily league.
Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Mon-ARI (Ray), Sat-@OAK (Hahn)
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) -- Thu-@CLE (Carrasco)
Jesse Hahn (OAK) -- Mon-@SD (Ross), Sat-LAA (Weaver)
Mike Fiers (MIL) -- Wed-@KC (Ventura): Anyone care to guess which has been the worst-performing offense of the past three weeks? The answer might surprise you, as might the fact that these Kansas City Royals have a roughly-league-average team strikeout rate since Memorial Day (20.6 percent). Fiers' strength is K's, so...
Andrew Cashner (SD) -- Tue-OAK (Kazmir), Sun-@ARI (Hellickson)
Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL) -- Wed-@PHI (Correia): "Matchups guy," thy name is Ubaldo Jimenez. And this one qualifies; the Philadelphia Phillies possess baseball's worst team wOBA against right-handers (.277).
Carlos Frias (LAD) -- Mon-@TEX (Gallardo), Sat-SF (Hudson): Five of his past six outings have resulted in quality starts, but mind the May 24 game (4 2/3 IP, 12 H, 10 ER), as these matchups, on paper, present a bit of downside risk. It's the lefties you want visiting Texas' Globe Life Park, and the San Francisco Giants are a good, hot, contact-hitting team.
Nathan Eovaldi (NYY) -- Tue-@MIA (Phelps), Sun-DET (Ryan)
A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Fri-@WSH (Scherzer)
Scott Copeland (TOR) -- Tue-@NYM (Harvey), Sun-BAL (Tillman)
Matt Garza (MIL) -- Tue-KC (Young), Sun-@COL (Rusin)
C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Thu-@ARI (Webster)
Shaun Marcum (CLE) -- Tue-@CHC (Wada), Sun-TB (Colome): His 24.1 percent K rate in his four starts since joining the Cleveland Indians' rotation is what captures my attention, because there's sneaky whiff potential in each of these two matchups.
Drew Hutchison (TOR) -- Wed-NYM (Niese): This would be a lot more intriguing streaming candidate of a matchup had it taken place at Citi Field. The New York Mets have baseball's fifth-worst team wOBA versus right-handers (.296), but they also have two power-hitting lefties (Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson) who present some downside risk here.
Charlie Morton (PIT) -- Tue-CWS (Quintana), Sun-@WSH (Roark)
Chris Heston (SF) -- Fri-@LAD (Bolsinger): He recently threw that no-hitter, sure, but he couldn't face a starker contrast of matchups; this one is against a Los Angeles Dodgers team that tops the majors in wOBA versus right-handers (.354), and also paces the game against that side in isolated power (.200), walk rate (10.0 percent), home run rate (4.0 percent)...
Jaime Garcia (STL) -- Thu-@MIN (Pelfrey)
Kyle Ryan (DET) -- Tue-CIN (Lorenzen), Sun-@NYY (Eovaldi)
Trevor May (MIN) -- Mon-@STL (Lackey), Sat-CHC (Arrieta): Sneakiest, most largely ignored hot streak in baseball: May is 4-for-5 in quality starts (and missed the fifth by a mere earned run) with a 3.03 ERA and 24.2 percent K rate since May 16.
Marco Estrada (TOR) -- Fri-BAL (Wright)
Jeff Samardzija (CWS) -- Thu-PIT (Cole): Ah, the perils of needing to rank pitchers before their "evaluate-'em" matchups, which is what I've termed Samardzija's June 13 game at the righty-heavy Tampa Bay Rays. This is the kind of situation where I could slot him 15 spots higher if he rebounds, or 25 lower if his struggles continue, as the Pittsburgh Pirates hardly represent an eye-popping matchup (classify them as more middling).
Mike Bolsinger (LAD) -- Fri-SF (Heston)
Kyle Lohse (MIL) -- Mon-KC (Volquez), Sat-@COL (Bettis): This is about where I'd draw the line as far as "automatic" two-start pitchers are concerned. A Coors Field matchup, on the heels of one against the contact-hitting Kansas City Royals, is quite the risk for a pitcher with a 7.00 ERA in his past five starts.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) -- Fri-NYM (deGrom)
Vincent Velasquez (HOU) -- Tue-COL (Rusin), Sun-@SEA (Happ): In career starts Nos. 2 and 3, Velasquez faces a Colorado Rockies team that has averaged more than a run and a half per game less on the road (3.64) than at home (5.19) this season, as well as a wOBA 56 points lower (.301 to .357), then a game at the Seattle Mariners, who sport the majors' fourth-worst wOBA against right-handers this season (.295).
Chi Chi Gonzalez (TEX) -- Tue-LAD (Anderson), Sun-@CWS (Quintana): I hear your claims: "He's got 14 2/3 scoreless frames to begin his big league career!" I reply: "He's got a 0.80 K-to-walk ratio, and these are the righty-crushing Los Angeles Dodgers and a homer-friendly ballpark in U.S. Cellular Field." You: "I also like to live dangerously." Me: "Twenty beat your five, sir."
Roenis Elias (SEA) -- Fri-HOU (McCullers)
Wade Miley (BOS) -- Tue-ATL (Teheran), Sun-@KC (Young)
Hector Santiago (LAA) -- Wed-@ARI (Anderson)
Adam Warren (NYY) -- Fri-DET (Simon)
Yovani Gallardo (TEX) -- Mon-LAD (Frias), Sat-@CWS (Rodon)
Edinson Volquez (KC) -- Mon-@MIL (Lohse), Sat-BOS (Porcello)
Kyle Gibson (MIN) -- Tue-@STL (Wacha), Sun-CHC (Wada): This one's all about the Chicago Cubs matchup, as they have the majors' highest strikeout rate against right-handers (25.8 percent). Gibson has a 21.7 percent K rate in his past six starts, so there could be some sneaky upside here in larger leagues.
Collin McHugh (HOU) -- Thu-@COL (Hale): While he's not the same pitcher today that he was during his brief stint with the Colorado Rockies in 2013, McHugh's slider performed poorly at Coors Field at the time, making this perhaps the scariest matchup he'll face all year.
Yordano Ventura (KC) -- Wed-MIL (Fiers)
Jimmy Nelson (MIL) -- Thu-@KC (Guthrie)
James Shields (SD) -- Fri-@ARI (De La Rosa)
Nathan Karns (TB) -- Fri-@CLE (Kluber)
Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) -- Mon-PHI (Harang), Sat-@TOR (Buehrle)
Jon Moscot (CIN) -- Mon-@DET (Sanchez), Sat-MIA (Koehler): His would be a bold roll of the dice accounting largely for the matchups; Moscot is neither an upper-echelon strikeout, control nor ground-ball artist. But he's facing a pair of opponents that have wOBA swings of at least 19 points performing better against lefties than righties (he's righty), and the Miami Marlins in particular have a whopping 58-point differential (.294 versus righties, .352 versus lefties).
Rick Porcello (BOS) -- Mon-ATL (Perez), Sat-@KC (Volquez)
Clay Buchholz (BOS) -- Thu-@ATL (Miller)
Dan Haren (MIA) -- Fri-@CIN (DeSclafani)
Kendall Graveman (OAK) -- Thu-SD (Kennedy): Oh, I'm tempted. Graveman belongs in the streaming conversation against a San Diego Padres team that has a third-worst .288 wOBA against right-handers in the past month.
CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Thu-MIA (Latos)
Michael Lorenzen (CIN) -- Tue-@DET (Ryan), Sun-MIA (Phelps)
Ian Kennedy (SD) -- Thu-@OAK (Graveman)
Mike Montgomery (SEA) -- Thu-SF (Vogelsong): Consecutive quality starts have kick-started his big-league career, but Montgomery doesn't garner many K's and the San Francisco Giants are one of baseball's hottest offenses, their .343 team wOBA the past three weeks third-best.
J.A. Happ (SEA) -- Tue-@SF (Lincecum), Sun-HOU (Velasquez)
Aaron Harang (PHI) -- Mon-@BAL (Chen), Sat-STL (Lackey): Every two-start pitcher from here down is a "no thank you" in my book. The talent doesn't drive any of these plays and most every one has at least one major-downside matchup between the two.
David Hale (COL) -- Thu-HOU (McHugh)
Erasmo Ramirez (TB) -- Mon-WSH (Gonzalez), Sat-@CLE (Bauer)
Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Tue-SEA (Happ), Sun-@LAD (Anderson)
R.A. Dickey (TOR) -- Thu-NYM (Colon)
Mark Buehrle (TOR) -- Mon-@NYM (Syndergaard), Sat-BAL (Chen)
Tim Hudson (SF) -- Mon-SEA (Walker), Sat-@LAD (Frias)
Chris Rusin (COL) -- Tue-@HOU (Velasquez), Sun-MIL (Garza)
Chris Tillman (BAL) -- Tue-PHI (Williams), Sun-@TOR (Copeland)
Tyler Lyons (STL) -- Fri-@PHI (Hamels)
Alfredo Simon (DET) -- Fri-@NYY (Warren)
Joe Blanton (KC) -- Fri-BOS (Rodriguez)
Bartolo Colon (NYM) -- Thu-@TOR (Dickey): Don't throw pitch-to-contact guys at Toronto's Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays sport baseball's highest runs-per-game average (5.66) as well as wOBA in home games (.366).
David Phelps (MIA) -- Tue-NYY (Eovaldi), Sun-@CIN (Lorenzen)
Alex Colome (TB) -- Tue-WSH (Roark), Sun-@CLE (Marcum)
Mike Wright (BAL) -- Fri-@TOR (Estrada)
Joe Ross (WSH) -- Thu-TB (Archer)
Mat Latos (MIA) -- Thu-@NYY (Sabathia)
Tom Koehler (MIA) -- Mon-NYY (Tanaka), Sat-@CIN (Moscot)
Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Wed-@TOR (Hutchison): With whispers that Steven Matz might soon be recalled, Niese has some risk of losing this start; he could be moved to the bullpen or the team could return to a six-man rotation in the near future.
Taylor Jungmann (MIL) -- Fri-@COL (De La Rosa)
Jose Urena (MIA) -- Wed-@NYY (Pineda)
Phil Hughes (MIN) -- Fri-CHC (Lester): Extreme fly-baller (37.2 percent) faces team with fourth-most hard-hit fly balls and ninth-highest fly-ball rate (31.8 percent). It's a "no."
Tsuyoshi Wada (CHC) -- Tue-CLE (Marcum), Sun-@MIN (Gibson)
Joe Kelly (BOS) -- Wed-@ATL (Wood)
Chad Bettis (COL) -- Mon-@HOU (Keuchel), Sat-MIL (Lohse)
Mike Pelfrey (MIN) -- Thu-STL (Garcia)
Odrisamer Despaigne (SD) -- Wed-@OAK (Chavez)
Chase Anderson (ARI) -- Wed-LAA (Santiago)
Matt Andriese (TB) -- Wed-@WSH (Zimmermann)
Chris Young (KC) -- Tue-@MIL (Garza), Sun-BOS (Miley)
Jeremy Hellickson (ARI) -- Tue-@LAA (Richards), Sun-SD (Cashner)
Jeff Locke (PIT) -- Wed-@CWS (Danks)
Robbie Ray (ARI) -- Mon-@LAA (Weaver), Sat-SD (Ross)
Rubby De La Rosa (ARI) -- Fri-SD (Shields)
Wandy Rodriguez (TEX) -- Wed-@LAD (Kershaw)
Justin Verlander (DET) -- Thu-@CIN (Leake): This rating was generated before his return to the Detroit Tigers' rotation on June 13, and I first need some evidence of recaptured velocity and/or adjustment to his pitch selection to compensate before he'd be a "go."
Mike Leake (CIN) -- Thu-DET (Verlander)
Anthony DeSclafani (CIN) -- Fri-MIA (Haren)
Jerome Williams (PHI) -- Tue-@BAL (Tillman), Sun-STL (Wacha)
Jorge De La Rosa (COL) -- Fri-MIL (Jungmann)
Bud Norris (BAL) -- Thu-@PHI (O'Sullivan)
Ryan Vogelsong (SF) -- Thu-@SEA (Montgomery)
Jeremy Guthrie (KC) -- Thu-MIL (Nelson)
Sean O'Sullivan (PHI) -- Thu-BAL (Norris)
Tommy Milone (MIN) -- Wed-STL (Martinez)
Kyle Kendrick (COL) -- Wed-HOU (Oberholtzer)
Brett Oberholtzer (HOU) -- Wed-@COL (Kendrick)
John Danks (CWS) -- Wed-PIT (Locke)
Allen Webster (ARI) -- Thu-LAA (Wilson)
Nick Martinez (TEX) -- Fri-@CWS (Sale)
Colby Lewis (TEX) -- Thu-@LAD (Greinke)
Kevin Correia (PHI) -- Wed-BAL (Jimenez)
The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
Hitting matchup chart, June 15-21
H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) and ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponents' catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.
Here are this week's "volume plays," defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against right- or left-handed starters:
Total games: All 30 teams play seven games apiece.
Home games: New York Yankees 5, Toronto Blue Jays 5, Chicago White Sox 5, Cleveland Indians 5, Kansas City Royals 5, Minnesota Twins 5, Oakland Athletics 5, Seattle Mariners 5, Atlanta Braves 5, Philadelphia Phillies 5, Washington Nationals 5, Cincinnati Reds 5, Arizona Diamondbacks 5, Colorado Rockies 5, Los Angeles Dodgers 5. The other 15 teams play two home games apiece.
Versus RH: Detroit Tigers 7, Athletics 7, Chicago Cubs 7, Baltimore Orioles 6, Boston Red Sox 6, Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 6, Indians 6, Braves 6, Miami Marlins 6, New York Mets 6, Nationals 6, Dodgers 6.
Versus LH: Texas Rangers 5, Twins 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Houston Astros 3, San Francisco Giants 3.
If those five opposing left-handed starters enjoy outstanding matchups versus the lefty-heavy Texas Rangers, then it'd follow that Rangers hitters endure some of the worst matchups ... and we're talking ranking among the worst we've seen all year. This is one extreme set that makes all five traditional Rangers lefties potential sits in shallow mixed -- and even some deeper-mixed or AL-only -- especially if you consider their year-to-date performances against southpaws:
Joey Gallo 13 PAs, 9 K's .233 wOBA
Shin-Soo Choo, 79 PAs, .188/.291/.275 rates, .265 wOBA
Leonys Martin, 72 PAs, .269/.306/.343, .290 wOBA
Mitch Moreland, 45 PAs, .256/.333/.385 rates, 31.1 K percentage
Prince Fielder is the only Rangers lefty who warrants your trust; he has .287/.347/.483 rates against southpaws, but even in this instance, expect some rough going against two aces and three elite strikeout artists from that side.
What drives the Brewers' high hitting rating is the fact that the Kansas City Royals' rotation has struggled of late -- their 4.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP from starting pitchers the past three weeks (May 22-June 11) ranks 24th and 22nd -- coupled with a three-game visit to Colorado's Coors Field. Though a five-righty-starters week isn't as favorable for the Brewers as one that's more left-handed, it's the starting-pitching matchups themselves that drive. The Brewers might have averaged just 3.45 runs since May 18, but they've also dropped in a few big nights against mediocre starters -- 11 in an Eric Stults game on May 22 stands out -- and those lesser-heralded lefties are particularly intriguing accordingly: Adam Lind, Gerardo Parra and Scooter Gennett, if the latter begins to sneak in starts at second base during the June 12-14 weekend.
The Orioles, meanwhile, enjoy a somewhat comparably favorable set of hitting matchups, thanks to their facing an even worse rotation than the Royals -- the Phillies -- to begin their week, followed by a three-game trip to hitting-friendly Rogers Centre. It's quite the matchup for this offense, which has a mere .285 team wOBA against righties the past three weeks (May 22-June 11), to rebound. Matt Wieters has been scorching the ball since his activation, Travis Snider is a .282/.378/.333 hitter against righties during that span, and Adam Jones (.237), Chris Davis (.213) and Manny Machado (.182) all have healthy isolated power numbers during that time.