It's a wide open slate on Tuesday with a throng of mediocre arms going. Some of the best arms going are actually facing each other, so you can just avoid those games altogether. While we often focus on streamers, there is a pitcher and a couple hitters I recommend keeping beyond Tuesday's pickup. I'll make note of those guys in their profile.
Without further ado, our first Tuesday in the second half ...
Pitchers to stream
Shane Bieber (R), rostered in 45 percent of ESPN leagues, Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Bieber's brilliant run in the minors (26 percent strikeout rate, 2 percent walk rate in 80 innings) earned him a rotation spot and he hasn't disappointed. While he hasn't been able to pull off the same kind of hit prevention from the minors, his 23 percent strikeout and 4 percent walk rates have aided him to a 3.53 ERA despite allowing 10.4 hits per nine. After allowing 18 hits in his first two starts, he's down to a more manageable 9.0 hits per nine and has won four of his last five. I like Bieber as a hold is most formats beyond this start, too.
Jordan Zimmermann (R), 25 percent, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals: It was nice to see Zimm survive in an outing when he clearly wasn't at his best. He allowed 11 hits and a couple homers against Tampa Bay, but still got out allowing four runs in six innings. The Royals are 28th in wOBA against righties at .291 and are actually the second-best team that Zimm can face as his own teammates are actually 29th.
Felix Pena (R), 13 percent, Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: Injuries have plagued the Angels rotation this year and basically taken them out of contention, but Pena has made the most of his opportunity so far. The 28-year old righty has put up a 3.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 26 innings, along with a 28 percent strikeout rate, a mark well above average. His 1.4 HR/9 is a bit misleading as he allowed a homers in both of his relief appearances, but has just a 0.8 mark in his five starts. The White Sox are not only 24th in wOBA against righties, but they also have the third highest strikeout rate at 26 percent.
Projected game scores
Robinson Chirinos (R), 10 percent, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (RHP Frankie Montas): Chirinos is starting to heat up with a .276/.364/.586 line with four homers in his last 66 plate appearances. He has a career platoon advantage against lefties with an .842 OPS, 114 points better than his work against righties.
Yonder Alonso (L), 32 percent, Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Joe Musgrove): Alonso enjoyed a two-homer game on Saturday, pushing his line to .316/.372/.513 in his last 20 games. He hasn't matched his surprise breakout campaign from last year, but he's held onto most of the power gains and still having the second-best season of his career. Alonso's platoon against righties will work well against Musgrove as lefties hold a 243-point platoon edge against him.
Rougned Odor (L), 42 percent, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (RHP Frankie Montas): Odor was toting a sub-.600 OPS through June 15th and turning up on waiver wires in all types of league formats. Who could blame anyone for moving on? Odor has those same people or some other lucky beneficiary scooping him up off the wire of late, though, with an impressive .327/.393/.561 line and six homers in his last 112 plate appearances. His bottom line OPS has gone from .587 to .735 in that span and he might be back to the guy we saw in 2015-16 when he had a .791 OPS with power and speed. Montas has a severe platoon split with lefties up at .831 OPS, 158 points higher than righties.
Derek Dietrich (L), 34 percent, Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves (RHP Julio Teheran): Dietrich has been a regular on these Tuesday Daily Notes and that's not about to change unless that roster rate surges. This is a great matchup for him. He's got an .844 OPS against righties and Teheran's allowing a .793 OPS against lefties. We are careful with batter v. pitcher numbers around these parts because the samples are usually too small to be all that predictive, but I will note that in addition to the splits lining up, Dietrich also has a 1.025 OPS and two homers against Teheran in 30 plate appearances.
Marcus Semien (R), 35 percent, Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (LHP Mike Minor): Semien has always had a reputation for crushing lefties and while he's fallen off against them the last two years, it's a still platoon advantage I have some confidence in rostering, especially when the opposing pitcher struggles with righties. Minor has allowed an .842 OPS and 14 of his 16 homers against them this year while Semien is surging a bit against southpaws with an .808 OPS against them this month.
Jake Bauers (L), 28 percent, Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (RHP Masahiro Tanaka): Bauers might catch up to Dietrich for most times included on the Tuesday Daily Notes and he didn't even come up until June 7th. The rookie left handed has been platoon neutral, making him an easy pickup off the wire regardless of matchup. Plus, his power has played up compared to his minor league work, a trend we've seen regularly over the last couple years with minor leaguers who haven't hit a ton of homers, but have shown a strong hit tool. Tanaka isn't a great matchup for lefties with a .688 OPS against them, so this is a bet on Bauers overall talent as opposed to the pitching matchup itself. In the end, I just don't understand how Bauers still has just a 28 percent roster rate.
Garrett Hampson (R), under 1 percent, Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros (RHP Gerrit Cole): We're getting our piece of Coors with the rookie Hampson, who was called up to fill in for DJ LeMahieu (oblique strain). Hampson is 33-for-38 (87 percent) on the bases at Double-A and Triple-A this year and 120-for-143 (84 percent) in his pro career. He could possibly be a game changer middle infielder in the second half if he hits anywhere near his .315/.389/.458 career slash line. The Rockies are facing Gerrit Cole, but it's Coors Field so an elite arm is less of an issue for a streaming hitter.
Jesse Winker (L), 47 percent, Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals (LHP Austin Gomber): This is probably the last time we'll see Winker in a Daily Notes as he's approaching the 50 percent roster rate and should go well beyond it soon if he continues his power surge. Yes, I'm going lefty-lefty here and Winker only has a .211/.357/.333 line against southpaws, but it's Gomber's first MLB start after relieving for the last month-plus and Winker has also put up a 1.012 OPS against lefties since June 1st, albeit in 32 plate appearances. The bottom line is that Winker is worth rostering well beyond Tuesday for multiple reasons: he's hitting .300, has more walks than strikeouts, and six of his seven homers since June 1st.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (L), 15 percent, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Yefry Ramirez): Let me state out front that I kinda like Ramirez. There's no way I could start him against the Red Sox in anything except maybe an AL-only league, but he's been solid in 23 innings so far after 72 strong innings in Triple-A. The Red Sox are just too relentless an offense to start any non-stud against and while Bradley hasn't been a key piece of the success for much of the year, he has put up an .884 OPS in the last month (80 PA).
Manuel Margot (R), 12 percent, San Diego Padres at New York Mets (RHP Zack Wheeler): Outfield was light on options and Margot might not even play due to a wrist injury suffered over the weekend so keep an eye out. I had some expectations for Margot coming into the season, but after he dropped back-to-back sub-.600 OPS months to start the season, everyone started dropping him from their roster. He's finally coming on a bit with an .801 OPS since June 1st, with more power against righties (.175 ISO).
Hitter matchup ratings
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's history (three years' worth) as well as ballpark factors. "LH" and "RH" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.