<
>

Daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Tuesday

Jake Arrieta has been far from dominant in 2017, allowing 84 hits in 84 2/3 innings. AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

In a season full of offense, Tuesday presents some intriguing arms to stream while still offering plenty of opportunities to pick up some big bats.


Pitching

Pitchers to stream

Jeff Hoffman (R), 49 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants: Hoffman was torched last time out (9 ER), his worst start of the season, but it was his first dud of the year and it came in Coors Field against a strong Diamondbacks lineup. He couldn't have a softer landing to rebound in San Francisco against a Giants team that is dead last in wOBA against righties.

Jhoulys Chacin (R), 7 percent, San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves: Chacin has been a home-only starter this year, with a 1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and .161 AVG, plus a 4-1 record. Compare that with his hideous 9.08 ERA, 1.99 WHIP and .358 AVG on the road that has yielded an ugly 2-5 record. Chacin is worth a look against anyone at home, but he's essentially must-start against a lower-tier offense like the Braves. They are just 20th in wOBA against righties this year.

Mike Fiers (R), 48 percent, Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics: Fiers was one of the worst starters in the league through the first month-plus of the season with a 5.75 ERA and an impossible 4.0 HR/9. Natural regression alone was going to help Fiers, but he also made a change from the four-seamer to sinker and saw his homer numbers come back to Earth. The result is a 2.14 ERA in his last seven starts, along with a minuscule 0.4 HR/9, too. Oakland has been essentially league average against righties this year, but I'd still trust Fiers in this spot, especially after a 6 IP/1 ER/5 K gem against these same A's just five days ago.

Pitchers to avoid

Jake Arrieta (R), 99 percent, Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals: While Arrieta is toting an uncharacteristic 4.36 ERA this year, his strikeout and walk numbers offer hope (3.6 K/BB), but this is more about his opponent than Arrieta himself. It's hard to trust anyone against the Nationals right now. They have the NL's top wOBA against righties on the season and sit third in the league overall. Their 95 homers are just one back of the Yankees while Arrieta has a 1.4 HR/9, higher than his 2015 and 2016 totals added together (0.4, 0.7).


Projected game scores

GS is the projected game score for the pitcher. A "*" means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate rating; these are the author's ratings.


Hitting

Catcher

Tony Wolters (L), 2 percent, Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (RHP Matt Cain): The power hasn't really come through for Wolters yet this year (0 HR, .347 SLG), but he is hitting .289 with 20 BB and just 21 K against righties. Meanwhile, Cain has allowed a .324/.400/.479 line against lefties this year.

First base

Trey Mancini (R), 60 percent, Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Joe Biagini): Mancini was expected to be a lefty-killer and work on the short side of a platoon this year, but he has earned a lot more playing time by savaging righties to the tune of a .352/.406/.664 line with 10 of his 14 homers. Chris Davis hitting the DL opened up even more time, but Mancini has been a revelation for the O's this year.

Second base

Eric Sogard (L), 8 percent, Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tim Adleman): I'm still not sure what to make of Sogard's renaissance, but he's ripping righties to the tune of a .372/.495/.547 line with 19 walks and just 10 strikeouts. He also 10 multi-hit games against righties. Lefties are toting a healthy .235 ISO against Adleman.

Third base

Hernan Perez (R), 22 percent, Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tim Adleman): I thought Perez was one of the least believable breakouts last year with 13 HR and 34 SB that seemed to come out of nowhere with no real skills improvement, but he's once against earning gobs of playing time and putting up numbers. He's almost reversing things this year with a 23 HR/16 SB pace, though part of that is the fact that everyone is hitting homers this year. Perez has a reverse platoon split if anything with a .264/.292/.489 line against righties that include nine of the homers and six of the stolen bases (in six attempts!).

Shortstop

Tim Beckham (R), 22 percent, Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates (RHP Trevor Williams): Beckham has reversed his platoon split this year with a .290/.330/.483 line against righties and he's done his best work this month at .321/.410/.491. He's even showing more discipline with seven walks in 53 at-bats this month, compared to six in 118 last month.

Corner infield

Matt Adams (L), 45 percent, Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (RHP Jhoulys Chacin): Remember, this isn't a DFS lineup, so I'm still open to picking up a hitter who is going up against one of my pitcher picks. After all, Chacin can allow a 3-for-4 day with a solo shot to Adams and still have a strong outing. Adams is terrorizing righties with a monstrous .316/.373/.599 line and 11 of his 13 homers.

Middle infield

Scooter Gennett (L), 21 percent, Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Junior Guerra): If you were still skeptical on whether or not we're in a juiced ball era, maybe Gennett's insane .592 SLG will sell you. Yes, he did club four homers in one game, but he has a .623 SLG just since that historical performance and he was at a solid .450 in 46 games before it, too. Righties absolutely get the brunt of his damage (.979 OPS) and while Guerra does have a reverse platoon split for the year, he's been less-than-sharp over his last three with a 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 4 HR, and 13 walks against just 12 strikeouts.

Outfield

Joc Pederson (L), 23 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Jesse Chavez): It seems Pederson moves closer and closer to a platoon bat every year, but at least he continues to rip righties with a .246/.387/.482 line. He's also on fire in June with a .297/.469/.703 heading into Monday's game.

Adam Frazier (L), 11 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Tampa Bay Rays (RHP Alex Cobb): Frazier has always done his best work against righties with 24 of his 25 extra-base hits coming at their expense. He's also seen a power uptick in June with a 32 percent extra-base hit rate, up from just 18 percent in May. Cobb doesn't generate many swings-and-misses with a career-low seven percent swinging strike rate, something that plays right into the contact-heavy Frazier's favor.

Seth Smith (L), 2 percent, Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (RHP Joe Biagini): Smith's career ISO is 73 percent higher against righties than lefties. He's also heating up this month with a .517 SLG, up from .395 in May. Lefties have knocked Biagini around a bit this year with a .280/.330/.439 line.


Hitter matchup ratings

Notes: Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's history (three years' worth, as well as the past 21 days) and ballpark factors. "LH" and "RH" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, whereas a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.