We've reached the end of the line. This is the final Tuesday daily notes of the season and we're going out with a bang! OK, I don't want to oversell it. There are some difficult matchups and not a lot of great pitchers to stream. Don't let that deter you, though. Hopefully you get some use out of the Tuesday edition (well, all the editions really) en route to a fantasy baseball title.
Pitchers to stream
Josh Tomlin (R), 21 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins: Tomlin has posted a 2.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his last eight starts, along with a tremendous 12.0 K/BB ratio in 46 innings. The key is allowing just four homers in those eight starts. When he keeps the ball in the yard, he's great. He is also 5-0 during those eight starts. Tomlin has kept the Twins in check this year with a 3.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 19 2/3 innings, including just two homers allowed.
Parker Bridwell (R), 25 percent, Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox: Bridwell gets to face a White Sox team that has the second-highest strikeout rate (26 percent) and 22nd wOBA (.321) against righties. Bridwell has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his second-half starts and only twice has he been ripped (13 ER in back-to-back three-inning starts against Oakland). The strikeouts are hit and miss so if that's your biggest need, you might want to look elsewhere, but otherwise you can likely get some solid innings in this outing.
Dinelson Lamet (R), 28 percent, San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Going against the Dodgers is never easy, but when you're streaming, you don't always get the cushiest matchups. Lamet does have a gem (six innings, one earned run) with 10 strikeouts against the Dodgers earlier this month (Sept. 1). Interestingly enough, that was the only Dodgers win in a 17-game stretch. Lamet allowed six earned runs in his last outing, but prior to that he had posted a 2.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts with 66 strikeouts in 59 innings.
Pitchers to avoid
Dallas Keuchel (L), 97 percent, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers: My biggest issue is that Keuchel just might be limited in innings since the Astros aren't really playing for anything. The Rangers did get to him for a 6 IP/6 ER dud on Aug. 30, but he has a 3.20 ERA in his four September starts since then. I haven't seen any news that he will be limited, but keep an eye out.
Projected game scores
GS is the projected game score for the pitcher. A "*" means that the pitcher lacks requisite career major league data to produce an accurate rating; these are the author's ratings.
Chris Iannetta (R), 4 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (LHP Matt Moore): Iannetta has had a solid year all around thanks to improved power against righties, but he's really hammering lefties with a .299/.400/.532 line in 90 PA that includes five homers. Moore has historically had a reverse platoon wherein lefties hit him better, but this is more about confidence in Iannetta's work against lefties than it is the matchup against Moore. Plus, it's not like the .252/.317/.433 line he has allowed to righties is all that great.
Yonder Alonso (L), 25 percent, Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (RHP Daniel Mengden): Remember when Alonso was on a team in virtually every league? That hot stretch early on yielded an All-Star nod, but he hasn't been the same since with a .239/.343/.369 line in the second half. I'm still willing to give him a shot here. He's hitting .275/.378/.496 against righties with 40 of his 47 extra-base hits. Meanwhile, Mengden has allowed a .279/.286/.459 to lefties and hasn't had much swing-and-miss in his game this year with just a 5.4 K/9.
Adam Frazier (L), 3 percent, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Kevin Gausman): Gausman is racing to the finish line with a 2.26 ERA in his last 12 starts, but it's a tough slate on Tuesday so I'm going against some pitchers who don't necessarily enhance my picks on offense. All six of Frazier's homers and 30 of his 31 extra-base hits this year have come against righties. He's hitting .322/.382/.493 since the break and regularly bats high in the order.
Jeimer Candelario (B), 13 percent, Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (LHP Jason Vargas): Candelario has hit the ground running with his new organization, posting a .355/.443/.526 line in 88 plate appearances with two homers, nine RBIs and 15 runs. The switch-hitter is handling both righties and lefties, including a .338/.442/.492 line against the former with both homers. Gaviglio has been blitzed by both righties and lefties, so it wouldn't really matter if Candelario batted right or left. Gaviglio is allowing a .254/.331/.500 to lefties with seven homers and five steals in 130 PA.
Jorge Polanco (B), 40 percent, Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (RHP Josh Tomlin): Polanco is having a tremendous finish to the season with a .332/.391/.578, including 9 HR, 39 RBIs, 27 R, and 7 SB in 50 games. I mentioned how well Tomlin has been throwing of late, but he is prone to the homer when he's off. Polanco is smashing righties during his hot streak with a .322/.396/.585 in 137 PA, but even if they go to lefties in the pen, he has a .348/.384/.565 line against them, too.
Tyler Moore (R), less than 1 percent, Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (LHP Tyler Anderson): Moore could get a spot-start in Coors against a lefty, offering a nice matchup for a streamer. He has sputtered this year against lefties after two solid years, but Coors plus a platoon edge is too much to pass up. Anderson further improves Moore's outlook (again, if he starts) with a .292/.355/.522 line against righties.
Marcus Semien (R), 15 percent, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners (LHP James Paxton): Semien hasn't really gotten into a groove this year as he has been limited to just 77 games, but he does have history against lefties with a career .280/.328/.473 line against them. He's short of that level this year, but his 92 PA versus lefties is a three-year low. Paxton isn't easy on anyone, but pickings are slim at shortstop so we're rolling with Semien.
Curtis Granderson (L), 19 percent, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres (RHP Dinelson Lamet): Granderson is rallying to turn the fortunes of an ice-cold September with a .963 OPS and 2 HR in 19 PA over the last week. His OPS is 113 points higher against righties this year and even with his second-half struggles, he still has a .239 ISO. Lamet laments facing lefties with a .262/.359/.495 line, which has fostered a 317-point OPS split. Petco Park hasn't been a safe haven, either, with 9 HR at home against 8 HR on the road.
Lonnie Chisenhall (L), 4 percent, Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (RHP Bartolo Colon): Keep an eye out to make sure Chisenhall starts. He has a .250 ISO against righties fueled by a 48 percent flyball rate that brings his power forward (just 33 percent FB versus lefties). What do I really need to say to convince you to play someone against Colon? Opponents are hitting .323 against him this year. He has a 9.17 ERA in September. He fanned eight in his last August start... and has nine in all of September.
Hunter Pence (R), 10 percent, San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (LHP Robbie Ray): Pence gets out of his cavernous home park in SF, but has to face one of the tougher lefties around. That said, Ray does have an MLB-high 41 percent hard contact rate. Pence is hitting .271/.336/.414 against lefties this year. He's finishing strong with a .278/.349/.437 line since Aug. 1 with 5 HR, 22 RBIs and 20 R in 169 nice PA. Righties have accounted for 35 of the 41 extra-base hits Ray has allowed and he has been much worse at home on the season with a 4.37 ERA, .229 AVG, and 12 HR in 12 starts at Chase Field.
Hitter matchup ratings
Notes: Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's history (three years' worth, as well as the past 21 days) and ballpark factors. "LH" and "RH" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. So, for example, a 10 is a must-start rating, whereas a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent.