This is the first set of offseason rankings -- prior to the draft lottery, draft and free agency -- which means there is no shortage of speculation here, as many rosters and roles will change dramatically this summer.
Here are my thoughts on some of the players whose value seems most likely to fluctuate due to potential player movement during what should be a volatile offseason.
Anthony Davis was the most productive player, per game, of any player in the NBA last season when healthy and playing full-time minutes. Health is always a question mark for Davis, as he failed to play more than 68 games for the fifth time in his seven-year career (56 games played on the season). But the biggest damper of last season was Davis' trade demand, and the way that the New Orleans Pelicans reacted to it by holding him out of action. If Davis does get traded during the offseason, the makeup of his team will have an impact on his expected value. And if he doesn't get traded, the uncertainty of last season could be on deck again next season.
Kyrie Irving had a strong season but is a huge question mark this offseason. There is a growing expectation that he may leave the Boston Celtics during the offseason, and if he does, it would have a huge impact both on Irving and on the remaining Celtics. Irving is a high-usage player, and his return to health this season resulted in stunted growth for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier. If Irving leaves and the others stay, they could each (along with Gordon Hayward) improve significantly next season.
Kristaps Porzingis sat out all of this season after tearing his ACL late in the 2017-18 season, but the rumblings were that he could have potentially returned if his new team wanted him to. Instead, the Dallas Mavericks decided to play it safely with their new franchise center and look to a future built around Porzingis and the likely Rookie of the Year Luka Doncic. The problem with that is we really have no idea what to expect from Porzingis next season. His upside earned him a spot in my top 50, but if he's healthy, he has top-20 potential -- and if unhealthy, the bottom could fall out.
Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter are currently within five spots in the rankings, but so much depends on Nurkic's recovery from a gruesome broken leg and whether Kanter remains on the roster. Both big men have top-30 upside if fully healthy in a full-time role, so news about Nurkic's rehab and/or potential offseason moves by the Trail Blazers could dramatically move either/both center's value heading into next season.
The Los Angeles Lakers are an enigma wrapped inside of a mystery. LeBron James is coming off the worst season of his career, which was shut down early due to injury. Before that, there were wild trade rumors involving Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart. Ingram now has a blood clot that threatens his NBA future, Ball and Hart finished the season early due to injury, and all of the trade rumors are likely to start back up this offseason. The team has a new coach, Magic Johnson is gone from the front office, and there are just so many unknowns that it's really difficult to project what they team will look like, let alone produce, next season.
Paul George underwent rotator cuff surgery to repair a partially torn tendon in his right shoulder and is expected to soon have a smaller procedure to fix a tear in the labrum of his left shoulder. The expectation is that he will miss the start of preseason training camp, which gives a degree of uncertainty that he really will be back up to full speed by the start of the season. George's current top-10 ranking assumes that he's healthy for the season, but if his rehab is slower than expected and extends into the season it could drop him down the list a bit.
Note: We'll wait until after the draft to include rookies in our rankings.
