Fantasy basketball and NBA betting cheat sheet for Monday

DeMar DeRozan faces Miami playing some of the best basketball of his career. David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The ESPN fantasy and betting cheat sheet is your pregame destination for our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge

What you need to know for tonight's NBA slate

Durant Detour: Kevin Durant is nearing a return, but is unlikely to play in either end of the Nets' back-to-back with the Raptors. In Brooklyn's most recent home game, Seth Curry led the team in points (22), shots (19) and rebounds (7). Patty Mills is 0-for-12 from the field since the All Star Break, thrusting Cam Thomas into a very viable role (28.3 minutes per game in home Feb. games).

Rookie Filler: Josh Giddey (five double doubles in Feb, including three triple doubles) will miss a second consecutive game (hip). Fellow rook Tre Mann assumed a play-making role in Indiana on Friday with Giddey sidelined (22 PTS and 5 AST in 34 MIN) and should produce against a Kings defense that has allowed at least 115 points in three straight games.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dinosaur?: Fred VanVleet (knee) is questionable and OG Anunoby is seeing a specialist for his ailing finger. In the last game VanVleet missed, Precious Achiuwa scored 11 points and grabbed 6 rebounds in 21 minutes. He also looked good on Saturday night (with VanVleet, but without Anunoby), as he produced 21 points and 9 boards off the bench.

Heat Check: Kyle Lowry (personal) will not play tonight against the Bulls. While Lowry missed the second half of Jan, Duncan Robinson showed flashes of his upside, making at least four triples in four straight games including back-to-back 25-point efforts at home.

Punt Plays: The cool kids call spending minimum or near-minimum salary on a position "punting." It can help to identify bargains that bear some bankability, such as Sacramento's Jeremy Lamb, who should be busy with Terence Davis sidelined. With Lowry out, we can also look to Miami's Gabe Vincent as a DFS bargain and for 3-point props.

Getting Goodwin: The Cavaliers won't have Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, or Rajon Rondo in the rotation tonight, setting up guard Brandon Goodwin -- who has posted 20 combined rebounds and dimes in his last two outings -- as a solid streaming candidate (rostered in 0.7%) and DFS target. The absence of Garland and LeVert also aids offensive projections for Lauri Markkanen and Kevin Love. -- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Game of the Night

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat; 7:30 p.m.

Line: Heat (-4.0)
Moneyline: Heat (-180), Bulls (+155)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 218 points
BPI Win%: Heat (71.4%)

Heat-Bulls trends: as of ~04:00 ET
Bulls (Spread) 51% of tickets, Heat 54% of dollars
Over 74% of tickets, Under 82% of dollars
Heat ML 55% of tickets, 60% of dollars

Notable: After covering four straight, the Heat are just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five.

Key players ruled out: Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, Kyle Lowry, Markieff Morris

Best bet: Bam Adebayo over 34.5 total points + assists + rebounds

Adebayo has been playing well of late, with double-doubles in eight of his last 10 games and a season-high 36 points in his last outing. He's gone over 34.5 PAR in five of his last six games, and on Monday likely faces a hobbled Nikola Vucevic (probable, sprained ankle) who has struggled in his two games since the All-Star Break. - André Snellings

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 37.5 total points + assists + rebounds

Kyle Lowry will be absent for the Heat, so Butler should have a monster game. Over the last 10 games, he has averaged 21.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists with a usage rate of 27%. Currently, the Bulls rank 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Against the Bulls, the Heat will continue to lean on Butler. -- Eric Moody

Breaking down the rest of the slate

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers; 7 p.m.

Line: Timberwolves (-3.0)
Moneyline: Timberwolves (-160), Cavaliers (+140)
Total: 219 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.5 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (52%)

Key players ruled out: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Rajon Rondo

Notable: The Cavs covered 14 straight games earlier this season, but they've failed to cover four straight. A fifth straight ATS loss would match their longest negative streak of the season (December 28-January 4).

Best bet: Total over 218.5 points

The Timberwolves' dramatic road/home point totals split comes into play here. In their last 15 road games, the Timberwolves and their opponents have averaged 243.1 combined points, and they've gone over 218.5 in 14 of the 15 games, including seven straight. -- Snellings

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic; 7 p.m.

Line: Magic (-1.0)
Moneyline: Magic (-115), Pacers (-105)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232 points
BPI Win%: Magic (55%)

Key players ruled out: Moritz Wagner

Notable: The Pacers played yesterday and have covered the back-end in three of their past four back-to-backs. Also worth noting is the fact that overs have come through in four of their past five games with no rest.

Best bet: Pacers +1.5 points

The Pacers and Magic have both won only two games since the Magic defeated the Pacers by 1 point a few weeks ago, but the Pacers are showing positive signs of late. Trade Deadline additions Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield seem to have settled into their roles, and with Malcolm Brogdon's return they were able to convincingly defeat the previously red-hot Celtics. They have the chops to win this rematch. -- Snellings

Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets; 7:30 p.m.

Line: Raptors (-4)
Moneyline: Raptors (-180), Nets (+155)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 117 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (52.5%)

Key players ruled out: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, OG Anunoby

Notable: Location location location. The Nets have failed to cover in five of their past six home games, but they've covered three straight on the road. Tonight is the first of a home-and-home, as these teams square off in Toronto tomorrow night.

DFS value: Gary Trent Jr. ($3,600 on DK, $3,900 on FD)

Fred VanVleet is questionable for Monday's game with a knee injury and hasn't looked like himself recently. The absence of VanVleet makes Trent a nice value in DFS. Per 40 minutes, he averages 21 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists. This season, the Nets allow the fourth-most FD points and DK points per game to point guards. -- Moody

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies; 8 p.m.

Line: Grizzlies (-8.5)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-420), Spurs (+320)
Total: 237 points
BPI Projected Total: 224 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (69.8%)

Key players ruled out: Dillon Brooks

Notable: Has Vegas finally caught up with the run-and-gun Grizz? Under tickets have cashed in each of their two games following the All Star Break, a significant happening when you consider that their eight games pre Break all went over the projected total.

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks; 8 p.m.

Line: Bucks (-10)
Moneyline: Bucks (-550), Hornets (+400)
Total: 240.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (74.4%)

Key players ruled out: Gordon Hayward

Notable: The Bucks have been the most predictable team in the NBA of late: they've failed to cover five-in-a-row and seen eight straight go over the total.

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 50.5 total points + rebounds + assists

Antetokounmpo has scored 25 points in 16 consecutive games at home, the longest streak in the NBA this season. The streak is also the third-longest in Bucks history. This trend should continue for Antetokounmpo against a Hornets team that has been dominated by power forwards this season. Charlotte also allows opponents to accumulate a high number of offensive rebounds. -- Moody

Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder; 8 p.m.

Line: Kings (-4.5)
Moneyline: Kings (-190), Thunder (+160)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 217 points
BPI Win%: Kings (61.1%)

Key players ruled out: Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort

Notable: Overs have cashed in six of Oklahoma City's past eight home games and Vegas has capped those games about as well as possible: four ATS pushes!

DFS value: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $9600 on DK and FD

The Thunder's offense will revolve around Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday night as Josh Giddey is already out with a hip injury. Gilgeous-Alexander is a great fantasy DFS pick. The Kings are 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Without Giddey on the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander averages 29.2 points per 36 minutes. -- Moody

Analytics Edge

ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team.

BPI highest projected totals

1. Milwaukee Bucks (118.6 points)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (115 points)
3. Orlando Magic (113.4 points)

BPI lowest projected totals

1. Chicago Bulls (105.8 points)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (106.9 points)
3. Brooklyn Nets (108.1 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Milwaukee Bucks (74.4%)
2. Miami Heat (71.4%)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (69.8%)