Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Thursday

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 27 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Thursday's games

Fatigue?: The Nets were 3-11 outright (5-9 ATS) on the second night of back-to-backs a season ago and are in their first such spot this season tonight- (they have two more over the next 17 days). Under tickets cashed in nine of those 14 games and the Nets team total was a worthwhile target (106.9 PPG). It's early, but Kevin Durant has as many turnovers this season as assists and has yet to shoot better than 33.3% from deep in a game.

Giddey for Mann: Josh Giddey (ankle) will miss his second consecutive game and that sound you hear is the elation of Tre Mann's fantasy managers (or savvy prop bettors). On Tuesday against the Clippers, Mann fired 24 times from the field in his 36 minutes, a per minute shot rate that was 54.9% greater than his three games to open this season. The Clips have allowed at least 108 points in three straight games, so if the Thunder can continue to push the pace like they have thus far, Mann could be in for another high usage evening.

Checking The Temperature: Jordan Poole entered this season with a reputation as an instant offense type of player that could fill it up in a hurry. That's still true, but he's quietly added play-making to his bag of tricks, something roto fantasy managers and prop bettors alike have to be loving. The 23-year-old is averaging an assist for every two shots taken this season, nearly double his career rate entering this season. Does it sustain? Tough to say, but we will get a good look at if these gains are real tonight against a Heat team that is top-10 in defensive efficiency since the beginning of last season.

Stackramento: The winless Kings host the surging Grizzlies in Sacramento this evening in a contest that claims the highest total of the slate (236.5). Memphis ranks sixth in offensive rating, but also last in offensive rating thanks to getting drubbed by Dallas last weekend. The Kings, meanwhile, are sixth in pace and 21st in defensive rating, adding even more possessions to this fantasy-friendly setup. Stacking DFS lineups with both of these defensively-deficient rosters makes some sense amid a four-game slate. With Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis, and De'Aaron Fox as high-ceiling building blocks, complementary shares of Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Desmond Bane, and even Santi Aldama could prove rewarding. For those seeking some streaming options, Huerter (53% available in ESPN leagues) has seen his 3-point volume leap by 48.2% since last season with Atlanta, while Aldama (76%) is playing heavy minutes and producing a nice blend of blocks and boards for the Grizzlies.

-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Game of the night

Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York

Line: Nets (-2.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-145), Nets (+122)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.6 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (58.7%)

Questionable: Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot), Markieff Morris (personal)
Ruled out: Seth Curry (ankle), Davis Bertans (knee), Frank Ntilikina (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Royce O'Neale (available in 80.5% of leagues) is making a consistent 3-and-D impact. He's averaging 3.5 combined steals and blocks per game, plus 2.3 3-pointers per game, and has at least two stocks and a 3-pointer in every game this season. -- André Snellings

Best Bet: Christian Wood over 18.5 points. The Mavericks' offense rests almost solely on Luka Doncic, Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie. Betting the over-stack (e.g. over points on all three of them) has been successful so far this season, but for Wood specifically, it doesn't appear that Vegas has caught up to his role with his new team. In three games thus far, he's scored 25, 25 and 23 points; he's getting plenty of shots as the primary option in the second unit and main scoring lieutenant when Luka is on the court. -- Snellings

Breaking down the rest of the slate

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:00 p.m ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Line: Clippers (-6)
Money line: Clippers (-250), Thunder (+205)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.7 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (58%)

Questionable: Paul George (illness)
Ruled out: Kawhi Leonard (knee), Marcus Morris Sr. (personal), Josh Giddey (ankle), Jalen Williams (eye)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Clippers -6. In the first game of a back-to-back set, the Clippers lost to the Thunder. However, Los Angeles was without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard, who has stiffness in his knee, has already been ruled out. While George is questionable with an illness for tonight's game, there is a strong chance he will play. The Clippers do not want to lose consecutive games to the Thunder. My bet is on Los Angeles to cover. The Thunder aren't a strong offensive team ranking 27th in points scored per 100 possessions played. This season, Oklahoma City allows opponents to have an effective field goal percentage of 54.1%. -- Eric Moody

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden One Center, Sacramento, California

Line: Grizzlies (-3)
Money line: Grizzlies (-165), Kings (+140)
Total: 237 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.6 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (52.5%)

Questionable: John Konchar (shoulder)
Ruled out: Ziaire Williams (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Santi Aldama (rostered in 23.2%) is a great streamer against the Kings. He's averaged 12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 1.3 BPG in 30.8 MPG this season and scored 30 or more fantasy points in three out of four games. The Kings rank 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions, which also helps the cause. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: Keegan Murray over 16.5 points. Murray has averaged 17.5 PPG in his first two NBA games, coming off the bench but getting plenty of minutes. He's moving into the starting lineup on Thursday, and while his minutes can't realistically get much higher, this vote of confidence also gets him out on the court with playmakers that can get him more open looks. Murray showed me in the Las Vegas Summer League that he's ready to be a professional scorer in the NBA right now, and he has a quickness advantage on Santi Aldama that should allow him to be aggressive as a scorer in his first start. -- Snellings

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco

Line: Warriors (-6.5)
Money line: Warriors (-260), Heat (+210)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.9 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (67.7%)

Ruled out: Andre Iguodala (hip), Donte DiVincenzo (hamstring), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), Victor Oladipo (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: James Wiseman (available in 65.4% of leagues) has proven than he can produce efficiently even in limited minutes off the bench. Wiseman has scored in double figures in three straight games, and is averaging 11.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 0.8 BPG in 17.8 MPG on the season. As part of the second unit, he should also pretty much avoid Bam Adebayo, and Wiseman's physical tools should allow him to get the better of Dewayne Dedmon and the otherwise undersized Heat frontline. -- Snellings

Best bet: Andrew Wiggins over 25.5 points + assists + rebounds. This season, Wiggins averages 20.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.3 BPG in 32.3 MPG. For the season, he has a usage rate of 21.7% and faces a Heat defense that has been torched by small forwards. Miami has allowed 28.3 PPG, 4.05 APG and 8.7 RPG to the position. -- Eric Moody

Analytics Edge

BPI's highest projected totals

1. Memphis Grizzlies (118.7 points)
2. Dallas Mavericks (118.0 points)
3. Sacramento Kings (117.9 points)

BPI's lowest projected totals

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (110.2 points)
2. Miami Heat (111.6 points)
3. Brooklyn Nets (115.6 points)

BPI top probability to win (straight up)

1. Golden State Warriors (66.7%)
2. Dallas Mavericks (58.7%)
3. LA Clippers (58.0%)