Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Sunday

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ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 29th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Sunday's games

Pass on the Pacers: With Tyrese Haliburton likely to remain sidelined, the struggles of the Indiana Pacers, especially on the road, seem likely to continue. They've failed to cover each of their past six road games, losing by an average of 7.6 more points than the spread had projected.

Point-Happy Hornets: Say what you will about the Charlotte Hornets, but they play an exciting brand of basketball that encourages scoring. Will that work against the Miami Heat? That's on you to determine, but if it does, you're backing the home team. Just twice since the beginning of December has a game with the Hornets seen under 220 points scored ... the Heat are 6-12-1 ATS in games the reach that number.

Overloading on Overs: Sportsbooks have been good on the whole at adjusting to the pace and tempo of 2023, but two games on this limited slate continue to buck that trend. The Milwaukee Bucks (vs New Orleans Pelicans) have seen 12 of their past 15 home games go over the total and overs are 7-2-1 in the Memphis Grizzlies (vs Indiana Pacers) past 10 home contests.

-- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe

Breaking down Sunday's slate

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
1 p.m. ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina

Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 28-22 (19-28-3)
Hornets: 14-36 (21-27-2)

Line: Heat (-6)
BPI Projection: Heat (113.8-111.5)
Money Line: Heat (-225), Hornets (+185)
BPI Projected winner: Heat (58.6%)
Total: 224 points BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points

Injury Report:
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Quadriceps); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD - Lower Leg); Max Strus, (GTD - Shoulder); Duncan Robinson, (OUT - Finger); Nikola Jovic, (OUT - Back); Omer Yurtseven, (OUT - Ankle)
Hornets: Cody Martin, (GTD - Knee); Kelly Oubre Jr., (OUT - Hand)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: LaMelo Ball over 13.5 total rebounds + assists. Ball averaged 9.4 APG and 5.3 RPG in the 10 games before he injured his ankle, going over 13.5 total in six of them. In his first game back from injury on Thursday, he grabbed 11 boards and dished eight assists. Ball should have a clear size advantage over Kyle Lowry or Tyler Herro, giving him a rebounding window and he always has clear double-figure-assist upside in any given game. -- Andre Snellings

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
6 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 24-27 (27-24-0)
Grizzlies: 31-18 (23-23-3)

Line: Grizzlies (-9.5)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies (121.5-114.0)
Money Line: Pacers (+345), Grizzlies (-455)
BPI Projected winner: Grizzlies (75%)
Total: 241 points BPI Projected Total: 240.1 points

Injury Report:
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD - Wrist); Andrew Nembhard, (GTD - Illness); Myles Turner, (GTD - Ankle); Daniel Theis, (OUT - Knee); Tyrese Haliburton, (OUT - Knee)
Grizzlies: Desmond Bane, (GTD - Knee); John Konchar, (OUT - Concussion); Danny Green, (OUT - Knee); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: T.J. McConnell (available in 67.9% of leagues) McConnell should be an every-game starter for fantasy managers while Tyrese Haliburton is out. He has moved into the Pacers' starting lineup and averaged 18.5 PPG, 9.8 APG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG and 0.5 3PG in 36.3 MPG over in his last four outings. -- Snellings

Fantasy streamer: Chris Duarte (available in 92.9% of leagues) Duarte finally awakened after an incredibly slow start to the season. In his last three games, he's moved into the starting lineup and averaged 14.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.7 APG, 2.7 SPG and 2.0 3PG in 33.0 MPG. -- Snellings

LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio

Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 28-24 (26-26-0)
Cavaliers: 30-21 (25-24-2)

Line: Cavaliers (-5.5)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers (115.7.1-113.2)
Money Line: Clippers (+185), Cavaliers (-225)
BPI Projected winner: Cavaliers (59.1%)
Total: 215 points BPI Projected Total: 224 points

Injury Report:
Clippers: Marcus Morris Sr., (GTD - Ribs); John Wall, (OUT - Abdomen)
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, (GTD - Groin); Kevin Love, (GTD - Back); Dylan Windler, (OUT - Hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy Streamer: Norman Powell (available in 69.9% of leagues) Powell seems likely to get more run Sunday with the Clippers on the second half of a back-to-back. Powell has averaged 19.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.2 3PG, 1.8 APG and 0.6 SPG in 27.1 MPG in his last 12 outings. -- Snellings

Best bet: Cavaliers -5.5. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable for Sunday's game, it seems unlikely based off their typical history. While Donovan Mitchell is also listed as questionable, the Cavaliers should be better suited to handle Mitchell's absence at home than the Clippers are to handle the potential absences of Leonard and George. -- Snellings

New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. ET, Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 26-24 (24-26-0)
Bucks: 32-17 (26-20-3)

Line: Bucks (-10)
BPI Projection: Bucks: (120-114.1)
Money Line: Pelicans (+360), Bucks (-480)
BPI Projected winner: Bucks (70.3%)
Total: 233.5 points BPI Projected Total: 229.8 points

Injury Report:
Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, (OUT - Ankle); Zion Williamson, (OUT - Hamstring); E.J. Liddell, (OUT - Knee)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Knee); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD - Knee); Bobby Portis, (OUT - Knee); Serge Ibaka, (OUT - Personal)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 31.5 points. Antetokounmpo has the potential to average 35 PPG when healthy. He had a few down performances when trying to play through knee soreness, but in his last two games he's already returned to form, scoring 33 and 41 points respectively. I look for more of the same on Sunday against the Pelicans. -- Snellings