Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday

Jordan Poole could see an increase in his production with Stephen Curry out the next few weeks. Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Feb. 6 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to for Monday's games

The NBA rarely disappoints at the deadline. Wheeling and dealing major talents and cherished draft assets has become part of the brand. While we often celebrate such blockbuster deals for how they create new narratives and shift competition among conferences, we also tend to overlook how such star-driven transactions influence the potential of younger and lesser-known rotation players.

We realize the Brooklyn Nets divested themselves of the Kyrie Irving experience in Sunday's trade with Dallas for a package of steady role players and picks. No one player on the Nets will consume Irving's elite offense and heavy usage, but it's become clearer that second-year shooting guard Cam Thomas and journeyman Edmond Sumner merit bigger roles in the weeks ahead.

Thomas, fresh from a career-high 44 points in a recent win over the Washington Wizards and still a free agent in nearly 90% of ESPN leagues, is the player to prioritize in fantasy leagues. He's flashed with increased opportunities before and now Brooklyn will actually rely on such contributions. Sumner, available in 98% of leagues, is an ideal streaming option in tonight's matchup with the LA Clippers; I project him to reach six fantasy points per $1,000 spent on DraftKings (long a threshold for significant value).

When Seth Curry was dealt to Brooklyn last year, we saw Tyrese Maxey enter a new offensive orbit that has become part of his career arc. Spencer Dinwiddie - before ending up back in Brooklyn in the Irving swap - struggled to fit with the Washington Wizards last season and yet eventually thrived after landing next to Luka Doncic. Glue guy Josh Hart went from role player for the New Orleans Pelicans to a fantasy league-winner last spring on a barren Portland Trail Blazers rotation. The list goes on.

Opportunity in the NBA can prove profound, as this endlessly talented league always has someone ready to step up. Jordan Poole, for example, is my top-rated DFS play of tonight's slate as he adopts Stephen Curry's usage and shot diet versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. As deals develop this week, make sure to investigate which players could surface as statistical stars.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down Monday's slate

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 37-16 (26-26-1)
Pistons: 14-40 (24-29-1)

Line: Celtics (-11)
BPI Projection: Celtics (124-113)
Money Line: Celtics (-600), Pistons (+430)
BPI Projected winner: Celtics (84.4%)
Total: 230 points BPI Projected Total: 237 points

Injury Report:
Celtics: Luke Kornet, (GTD - Ankle); Marcus Smart, (OUT - Ankle); Danilo Gallinari, (OUT - Knee)
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart, (GTD - Hip); Marvin Bagley III, (OUT - Hand); Cade Cunningham, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Derrick White (rostered in 52.2% of ESPN leagues) continues to be a viable streamer while Marcus Smart is out due to a right ankle sprain. He's scored 30 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games. The Pistons rank 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions, which is great news for White. -- Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Jalen Duren (rostered in 22.9% of ESPN leagues) got into foul trouble against the Suns on Saturday and finished with only 10 fantasy points. Despite this, he has scored 27 or more fantasy points in each of his previous six games. You shouldn't overlook Duren if you need a center. He is in the middle of a very good rookie season. -- Moody

Best bet: Bojan Bogdanovic over 21.5 points. Bogdanovic is a staple at scoring for the Pistons, and he's a metronome. In his last nine games, Bogdanovic has averaged 23.2 PPG, with at least 21 points in seven of the nine. The Celtics' defense is strong on the interior, but Bogdanovic attacks more from the perimeter, so he should be able to get his shots. In two games against the Celtics this season, he's averaged 22.5 PPG. -- Snellings

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 29.5 points. Tatum struggled from the field against the Suns on Friday, and that may have driven his line down a bit and provided this opportunity. Tatum almost never scores under 30 points. Before Friday, he had scored at least 30 points in 10 of his previous 12 games with an average of 32.3 PPG during that stretch. He scored 43 and 31 points in his two games against the Pistons earlier this season. -- Snellings

Trend: The Boston Celtics go on the road for the first time in nearly two weeks, but it couldn't be in a more inviting spot: the Detroit Pistons are 4-12 ATS over their past 16 home games. If you're trying to get cute with the total. It is worth noting that under tickets have cashed in 69.2% of Celtics road games, a number that jumps to 75% when you just look at their road covers. -- Kyle Soppe

Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.

Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 33-22 (28-25-2)
Wizards: 24-28 (24-27-1)

Line: Cavaliers (-3.5)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers (124-113.1)
Money Line: Cavaliers (-165), Wizards (+140)
BPI Projected winner: Cavaliers (64.8%)
Total: 220.5 points BPI Projected Total: 230.2 points

Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Caris LeVert, (GTD - Hamstring); Dylan Windler, (OUT - Hamstring)
Wizards: Bradley Beal, (GTD - Foot); Anthony Gill, (OUT - General Soreness); Kyle Kuzma, (OUT - Ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Corey Kispert (rostered in 1.0% of ESPN leagues) is an intriguing streamer on Monday night because Bradley Beal is questionable due to left foot soreness and Kyle Kuzma has already been ruled out due to a sprained left ankle. In the last six games, Kispert has scored 20 or more fantasy points. -- Moody

Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 8.5 total rebounds + assists. Mitchell has had some injury issues (and a fight) that have limited his minutes in recent weeks, but in the last six straight games where he's played at least 25 minutes he has produced at least nine total rebounds + assists (averaging 11.1 total RA in those six games). -- Snellings

LA Clippers at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York

Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 30-26 (29-27-0)
Nets: 32-20 (27-25-0)

Line: Clippers (-7.5)
BPI Projection: Clippers (117.1-111.1)
Money Line: Clippers (-305), Nets (+240)
BPI Projected winner: Clippers (67.5%)
Total: 220.5 points BPI Projected Total: 227.1 points

Injury Report:
Clippers: John Wall, (OUT - Abdomen)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD - Knee); T.J. Warren, (GTD - Lower Leg); Seth Curry, (OUT - Thigh); Kevin Durant, (OUT - Knee)

Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Cam Thomas (rostered in 11.4% of ESPN leagues) was provided an opportunity to shine once Kyrie Irving requested a trade and he delivered with a 63 fantasy point performance on Saturday against the Wizards. Ben Simmons is questionable due to left knee soreness and Seth Curry has already been ruled out due to left adductor tightness. It bodes well for Thomas' fantasy value on Monday night. -- Moody

Best bets: Kawhi Leonard over 26.5 points; Paul George over 22.5 points. Leonard has been locked in for the last month, averaging 29.1 PPG in his last 13 contests with at least 27 points scored in 10 of those 13 games. George has had some down periods dealing with his leg issues, but when healthy he's been scoring at the same levels. Even in his last six games, he has averaged 24.5 PPG while going over 22.5 points in four of six. The Nets aren't particularly stingy against opposing forwards with Kevin Durant and possibly Ben Simmons out as well. -- Snellings

Best bet: Kawhi Leonard over 1.5 steals. Leonard has accumulated 10 steals over his last three games. In this statistical area, he has a plus matchup against a Nets team that turns the ball over 14.4% of their possessions, 17th in the league. -- Moody

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Records (Against the Spread)
Spurs: 14-39 (23-30-0)
Bulls: 25-27 (29-23-0)

Line: Bulls (-10.5)
BPI Projection: Bulls (127.4-116.1)
Money Line: Spurs (+400), Bulls (-550)
BPI Projected winner: Bulls (84.2%)
Total: 237.5 points BPI Projected Total: 243.5 points

Injury Report:
Spurs: Keldon Johnson, (GTD - Ankle); Tre Jones, (GTD - Foot); Jeremy Sochan, (OUT - Back); Romeo Langford, (OUT - Hip); Charles Bassey, (OUT - Undisclosed); Devin Vassell, (OUT - Knee)
Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD - Foot); Patrick Williams, (GTD - Ankle); Javonte Green, (OUT - Knee); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Malaki Branham (rostered in 1.6% of ESPN leagues) should be firmly on the streaming radar for fantasy managers in deeper formats since the Spurs are dealing with a plethora of injuries. Branham has scored 40 or more fantasy points and has played 30 or more minutes in two consecutive games. -- Moody

Best bet: Zach LaVine over 29.5 points + assists. As a team, the Spurs allow the most points per game to shooting guards this season. San Antonio also ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions and also opponents an effective field goal percentage of 58.5%, the highest in the league. LaVine has averaged 23.1 points and 4.5 assists over the last eight home games. -- Moody

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 29-23 (28-24-0)
Rockets: 13-40 (20-30-3)

Line: Kings (-5.5)
BPI Projection: Kings (127.4-118.6)
Money Line: Kings (-225), Rockets (+185)
BPI Projected winner: Kings (67.2%)
Total: 234.5 points BPI Projected Total: 242.3 points

Injury Report:
Kings: De'Aaron Fox, (GTD - Personal)
Rockets: Garrison Mathews, (GTD - Toe); Kevin Porter Jr., (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Malik Monk (rostered in 15.8% of ESPN leagues) has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games, including two with over 37 points. In deeper formats, fantasy managers should consider Monk, particularly against the Rockets. Houston ranks 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allows opponents an effective field goal percentage of 55.7%. -- Moody

Trend: Both the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets are teams that rank below league average in defense and above average in offensive pace, so the high point projection makes sense ... or does it? Unders are 7-3-1 in Houston's past 11 home games and 18-7 when the Kings play on the road. -- Soppe

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 28-26 (18-33-3)
Jazz: 27-27 (30-24-0)

Line: Jazz (-9.5)
BPI Projection: Jazz: 125.6-112.9
Money Line: Mavericks (+345), Jazz (-455)
BPI Projected winner: Jazz (88.3%)
Total: 222.5 points BPI Projected Total: 238.5 points

Injury Report:
Mavericks: Christian Wood, (GTD - Thumb); Luka Doncic, (OUT - Heel); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Hamstring); Davis Bertans, (OUT - Calf)
Jazz: Jarred Vanderbilt, (GTD - Back); Micah Potter, (OUT - Elbow)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Tim Hardaway Jr. (rostered in 15.8% of ESPN leagues) should be leaned on heavily by the Mavericks since Luka Doncic is already ruled out and Kyrie Irving is not expected to make his debut until Wednesday. This season, he averaged 16.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game when he played 30 or more minutes. -- Moody

Best bet: Jazz (-9.5) Looking at the Mavericks' lineup for tonight, it's hard to see how they can be competitive. With no Luka nor Kyrie, and Wood still listed as questionable after missing the last eight games with a broken thumb, it's difficult to see them going on the road against a solid Jazz squad and mounting much of a fight. The BPI projection has the Jazz winning by 11.7 points, and I tend to agree that this should be a double-digit game. -- Snellings

Trend: Stop me when I get to something you fundamentally disagree with. The Utah Jazz can score the basketball. The Utah Jazz provide little interest in stopping the opponent from scoring the basketball. Professional basketball players can score the basketball consistently when there is little resistance. So yea, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be very short-handed tonight (Luka Doncic has already been ruled out and Kyrie Irving isn't expected to debut until Wednesday), but both of these teams are bottom-10 in defense and a chance for some lesser used players to showcase their ability. If you're buying the idea that Dallas may not be super competitive, but can at least score, then it is worth being aware that the Jazz have covered nine of their past 12 games that have gone over the total. -- Soppe

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 25-27 (33-19-0)
Warriors: 27-26 (24-28-1)

Line: Warriors (-4)
BPI Projection: Warriors: 125.6-115.5
Money Line: Thunder (+152), Warriors (-180)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (57.6%)
Total: 236 points BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points

Injury Report:
Thunder: Luguentz Dort, (GTD - Hamstring); Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, (OUT - Ankle); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT - Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT - Foot)
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Hip); Stephen Curry, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Donte DiVincenzo (rostered in 9.7% of ESPN leagues) will be leaned only heavily by the Warriors with Stephen Curry out due to a left leg injury. While playing 30 or more minutes a game this season, he averages 12.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. -- Moody

Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 43.5 points + assists + rebounds. This season, the Warriors have allowed the fifth most points per game to point guards. He's averaged 31.2 points, 5.6 assists and 4.9 rebounds in the last 12 games. Gilgeous-Alexander is well-positioned to succeed against a Warriors team now without Stephen Curry. -- Moody

Best bet: Jordan Poole over 23.5 points. Poole tends to step his scoring up heavily when Curry is out. When Curry missed from December 16 through January 7, Poole averaged 27.9 PPG while scoring over 23.5 points in 9 of the 11 games. The Thunder aren't particularly stingy against opposing guards, so he should be able to get his looks on Monday. -- Snellings

Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon

Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 36-17 (28-22-3)
Blazers: 26-27 (27-25-1)

Line: Bucks (-4)
BPI Projection: Blazers (123.7-121.9)
Money Line: Bucks (-180), Blazers (+152)
BPI Projected winner: Blazers (56.5%)
Total: 239.5 points BPI Projected Total: 245.6 points

Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Knee); Bobby Portis, (OUT - Knee); Serge Ibaka, (OUT - Personal)
Blazers: Drew Eubanks, (GTD - Back); Gary Payton II, (GTD - Illness); Justise Winslow, (OUT - Ankle); Jusuf Nurkic, (OUT - Calf)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Brook Lopez over 18.5 points + rebounds. This season, the Trail Blazers allow the most points per game to centers, while Lopez has averaged 14.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game despite two recent lackluster performances. He finished with 14 points and four rebounds against the Trail Blazers back on November 22nd, 2022. -- Moody

Trend: Sure, the Portland Trail Blazers have won five of seven games and yea, Damian Lillard is averaging 40 points per game over that stretch, but the level of competition has been ... underwhelming. They are just 2-8 ATS over their past 10 games as a 'dog, a tough trend to take into a game against a Milwaukee Bucks team that is 17-12-1 ATS when favored by more than three points. Of note: overs are 13-4 in those 17 Buck covers. -- Soppe