I broke down my approach in assessing the sports betting market and applying them to a weekly fantasy football decision-making process in my Week 1 edition of Vegas Fantasy Edge.
In Week 12, the ESPN player projections and the betting market lined up nearly perfectly. There weren't any discrepancies in games to break down, so we won't have any winners and losers to review this time around.
Week 13 is entirely different, however. I'm not sure if the model calculating our projections is overly excited about points being scored because it's playoff push time in leagues, but we currently overestimate fantasy production in four games this weekend relative to the betting market. We haven't had a single previous week reach four games, and we just knocked three Week 13 games out on Thanksgiving Day that aren't included.
There are weather concerns in three of the matchups that are extremely important to be mindful of when making final roster decisions this weekend. The fourth discrepancy is our usual Patriots game overestimation (I broke that down in detail in Week 11).
Let's get into the weather games and the players I have concerns about rostering on Sunday.