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Expected fantasy points (xFP): 2022 leaderboard for RBs

(Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.

FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).

Running back adjustments are made as follows:

Rushing attempts: No change

Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction

Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD

Targets: No change

Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position

Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position

Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD

Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate

Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate

Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness

Here is the 2022 xFP leaderboard for running backs: