Next Gen Matchup Advantage: Week 2 NFL mismatches to exploit

Keep you eyes on Jaylen Waddle's routes this weekend as he faces the Baltimore Ravens. Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire

The Miami Dolphins' offensive scheme change is going to work out nicely for Jaylen Waddle -- and we can see the evidence in the numbers.

In his first game in the Mike McDaniel system, Waddle ran more high value routes than he did a year ago and is set up to perform better in 2022 running deeper patterns than he did in his rookie year.

Welcome to Next Gen Stats corner: where each week we dive deep into the analytical weeds of football and weekly matchups to find small advantages for fantasy managers. This week, we'll talk routes, run stopping and sack opportunities. We're trying to find those few extra targets, yards per carry and sacks in Week 2 to bolster your fantasy squad or DFS lineup. Let's dive in.

Route Advantages

Upgrade: WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

In 2021 deep crosses, medium crosses, deep outs, digs and slices made up a combined 19% of Waddle's route portfolio, according to ESPN route metrics based on NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking data. But in 2022 those same five routes made up 56% of Waddle's routes run.

It's significant because those are five of the highest yards per route earning routes. Even though Waddle's air yards per target on Sunday was roughly the same as what it was a year ago, those routes run suggest that won't be the case for the rest of the year. In fact, three seconds into a play, Waddle's average depth last season was 8.1 yards; on Sunday it was 12.5 yards.

This chart indicates the expected yards per route run for an average receiver based on the route run and the coverage the defense played. Last season, players with higher cumulative expected yards per route run based on the routes they ran and the coverage their opponents' played earned more receiving yards in games and hit 100-yard games at a higher frequency.