The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his "expected" fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 16 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn't be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
Kyler Murray went down with an injury during Sunday's win in Seattle. In his place, Brett Hundley completed 4 of 9 pass attempts for 49 yards and added 35 yards on six carries. If Murray misses Week 17, it will be a problem for the pass-catchers in Arizona's offense, as Hundley has been an inefficient passer who adds some value with his legs since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. Entering Week 17, the 26-year-old has 11 total touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 5.7 yards per pass attempt and a 59% completion rate on his career resume (658 snaps). If Hundley starts against the Rams, Kenyan Drake will be the only safe fantasy play from the Arizona offense, with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald reduced to risky flex options.
Austin Hooper got back on track on Sunday with seven catches for 82 yards on nine targets against the Jaguars. It was his strongest performance since returning from injury in Week 14 and marks his ninth game with at least 12 fantasy points in 12 tries this season. Fantasy's No. 6 tight end is averaging 7.4 targets per game and should be locked into lineups against Tampa Bay in Week 17. Hooper will undoubtedly make for a solid TE1 option in 2020 fantasy leagues after taking his game to another level in his fourth season.
Mark Ingram went down with a calf strain in the third quarter of Sunday's win in Cleveland. With Ingram out in the fourth quarter, Gus Edwards played 75% of the snaps and rookie Justice Hill handled the other 25%. Baltimore was nursing a lead throughout the fourth quarter, so it made sense that Edwards -- the Ravens' between-the-tackles hammer behind Ingram -- got the most run. Of course, Edwards had also entered the week having out-snapped Hill 304 to 149. Assuming Ingram sits out a meaningless Week 17 game, Edwards figures to handle a bulk of the carries with Hill operating as a change-of-pace and receiving back (Hill has nine targets to Edwards' five this season). Though it's close in PPR, Edwards will be the preferred flex play in what will be a must-win game for a Pittsburgh squad with a good defense.
Frank Gore played two snaps against the Patriots on Saturday. That's the fewest Gore has played in a game going all the way back to the start of the 2007 season. The 36-year-old had played at least three snaps in the previous 202 games (including the playoffs) and reached double digits in all but two of those games (he was injured in both exceptions). It's no secret Devin Singletary has taken over as the team's clear lead back, but the rookie's usage was taken to another level Saturday when he played a career-high 96% of the snaps. Singletary was limited to 48 yards against New England's elite defense, but his 16 touches on Buffalo's 53 offensive snaps were a good sign. Locked into the 5 seed, the Bills may rest their feature back in Week 17, but if for some reason they do not, Singletary would be a solid RB2 against the Jets.
Will Grier made his NFL debut in Indianapolis on Sunday and struggled to 28 completions on 44 attempts for 224 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Incredibly, Grier completed all 15 of his throws to Christian McCaffrey, but only 13 of his other 29 attempts. In Grier's defense, DJ Moore went down with an early injury. Needless to say, Grier won't be a good fantasy play against a Saints team that is competing for a first-round bye in Week 17, but at least we know we don't have to worry about McCaffrey's viability as an elite play. Consider Moore a WR2 if he plays.
Anthony Miller crashed back to earth with one catch for 2 yards on a pair of targets against Kansas City on Sunday night. Miller entered the game having managed double-digit fantasy points in each of his previous five games, totaling eight or more targets in four of those outings. Of course, the rough day was somewhat predictable, as Kansas City has allowed the fewest receptions, second-fewest receiving yards and second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Miller played all 59 offensive snaps in the game, so it's fair to say he'll be a strong rebound candidate against a Minnesota shaky pass defense that figures to rest a few key players in Week 17. Consider Miller a flex option.
John Ross had his first big game since Week 2 on Sunday, hauling in 6 of 13 targets for 84 yards against Miami. Ross was on the field for 80% of the offensive snaps, which was his highest rate since he played every snap in Week 3. Ross had been limited to six targets and 43% of the snaps in two games since returning from injury in Week 14. Ross benefited from the Bengals running 60 pass plays in what was an overtime loss, so he's best left on the bench against a decent Browns pass defense in Week 17.
Odell Beckham Jr. scored his third touchdown of the season on Sunday, but the veteran receiver was held to 44 yards on six targets. Beckham has had six or fewer targets, four or fewer receptions, and 44 or fewer yards in three of his past four games. Beckham isn't fully healthy, his targets are trending the wrong direction and his Week 17 matchup against the Bengals isn't as easy as it probably seems (Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and 12th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers). Beckham, who sits 28th at wide receiver in fantasy points, is an uninspiring WR3.
Dak Prescott was kept out of the end zone against the Eagles on Sunday and has now failed to find pay dirt in two of his past five games. In fact, Prescott has registered five passing touchdowns and zero rushing scores during the span. He also hasn't done much with his legs lately, falling short of 13 rushing yards in three straight and six of his past eight games. On the positive side, Prescott has a plus matchup at home against a Washington defense that was sliced up for five touchdowns by Daniel Jones on Sunday. It's a must-win game for Dallas, so Prescott will be a full go. The Cowboys are averaging 30.0 points at home, but 22.1 on the road this season. Consider him a QB1 in this matchup.
DaeSean Hamilton caught all six of his targets for 65 yards and one touchdown against Detroit on Sunday. Despite the big game, Hamilton won't be a reliable fantasy option in Week 17. Hamilton entered the game having failed to clear 13 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight games. In fact, the second-year slot receiver totaled 13 yards on nine targets just last week against the Chiefs. The touchdown was his first of the season. Hamilton has caught 23 of 46 targets in 15 games and can be left on waivers.
Kerryon Johnson was activated from injured reserve and played 33% of the snaps against Denver on Sunday. That put him just ahead of Bo Scarbrough (29%), Ty Johnson (24%) and J.D. McKissic (12%). Johnson carried the ball 10 times for 42 yards and caught his only target for 1 yard. Johnson will be a candidate for a larger role against Green Bay in Week 17, but he's unlikely to match the 19.2 touches per game he averaged when healthy during Weeks 1-5. Consider Johnson nothing more than a shaky flex.
Allen Lazard racked up nine targets during Monday's win over Minnesota. That marked a career high for the second-year receiver and was well above his previous best of six set back in Week 10. Lazard turned the usage into five catches for 45 yards, which was good enough for his third-highest fantasy point total of the season. He has failed to clear 27 receiving yards in four of his past six games and has one touchdown during his past nine outings. He should be nowhere close to fantasy lineups.
Since putting up 90 yards and a score on 14 touches against the Patriots in Week 13, Duke Johnson has seen his touches dip dramatically. Johnson has a grand total of 13 yards on five carries and 71 yards on nine receptions (six of which came in one game) in three games since. Johnson has played 43% of the snaps during the span, which isn't too far off his 51% snap share during Weeks 1-13, but he was already a low-upside flex option and the reduced touches makes him even riskier. He's best left on the bench against the Titans in Week 17.
T.Y. Hilton was held to 26 yards on four targets in a 38-6 victory over the Panthers on Sunday. Hilton played 68% of the snaps through three quarters prior to sitting out most of the fourth quarter of a blowout win. Hilton has now fallen short of 27 yards in each of his past three games and hasn't scored a touchdown since October. Hilton is, of course, still the Colts' No. 1 offensive weapon, so unless a report surfaces that he'll be limited in a meaningless Week 17 game, he can be viewed as a fine WR3.
DJ Chark returned from a one-game injury absence on Sunday, but the second-year breakout receiver was limited to a 2-18-0 receiving line. Chark played 86% of the snaps and was targeted seven times, so the ugly stat line was obviously a major disappointment. In fact, Chark had produced at least 6.7 fantasy points in each of his first 13 games this season. Despite the dud, Chark's usage and otherwise-productive season keep him in the WR2 discussion this week against a struggling Colts pass defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past six weeks.
Damien Williams returned from injury and was on the field for 54% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps. Williams handled 16 carries, compared to five each for Darwin Thompson and Spencer Ware. He was also targeted three times on a position-high 16 pass routes (Ware handled three targets on 12 routes and Thompson didn't run any routes). LeSean McCoy was a healthy scratch. Healthy and back atop the depth chart, Williams can be considered a fringe RB2 against the Chargers in Week 17. Kansas City will be a full go as the Chiefs compete for a first-round bye.
Hunter Henry was held to five catches for 45 yards on seven targets against the Raiders on Sunday. The yardage total was actually Henry's highest since Week 11 and he's now found the end zone once during his past five games. Henry entered Week 16 having caught exactly two passes in three consecutive games. His production is obviously trending the wrong way, but his targets were up against Oakland and that's enough to keep Henry in the back-end TE1 mix against the Chiefs in the season finale.
Gerald Everett returned from injury in Week 16, but it remained the Tyler Higbee show in the Rams' offense. Everett was targeted once on four snaps, whereas Higbee posted a 9-104-0 receiving line on 11 targets while playing 89% of the snaps. Higbee now has at least eight targets, seven catches, 104 yards and 18.6 fantasy points in four consecutive games. He doesn't appear in danger of playing a reduced role, so stick with Higbee as a TE1 -- a status he very well may sustain into the 2020 season.
Miami stuck with what is essentially a two-man backfield committee against the Bengals on Sunday. Patrick Laird led the unit by playing 55% of the snaps, but he was held to 18 yards on nine touches. Myles Gaskin played 38% of the snaps and was much more productive with 17 touches for 58 yards and one touchdown. De'Lance Turner, meanwhile, carried the ball on four of his five snaps. None of these backs are recommended fantasy plays in New England in Week 17, though, with Gaskin likely out due to injury, Laird is the best flex dart of the group.
With Dalvin Cook sidelined and Minnesota trailing throughout the second half against Green Bay on Monday Night Football, it was Ameer Abdullah who paced the Vikings backfield in snaps. Abdullah registered four carries and seven targets on 31 snaps, 26 of which were pass routes. Mike Boone handled 11 of the team's 16 rushing attempts, but was targeted once on 18 snaps (seven routes). Minnesota is locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC, so it will be a major surprise if Cook or Alexander Mattison plays more than a few snaps (if any at all) against Chicago. That means it would, once again, be the Boone and Abdullah show. Neither are recommended plays in what should be a very low-scoring affair, but lean toward Boone in non-PPR and Abdullah in PPR.
Sony Michel ran for 96 yards on 21 carries and added 5 yards on a pair of targets against Buffalo on Saturday. Michel has disappeared from the Patriots' offense at times this season, but the second-year back has now reached 20 touches and 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back games. He also led New England's backfield in snap share (44%) against the Bills, ahead of James White (43%), Rex Burkhead (26%) and Brandon Bolden (4%). Michel hasn't scored a touchdown or eclipsed 14 receiving yards in a game since October, so even with the boost in rushing attempts, he remains a weak flex option against Miami in Week 17.
Alvin Kamara entered Week 16 as one the league's unluckiest players in the touchdown department. Kamara had scored only two touchdowns on the season despite a 5.6 OTD. That 3.6 gap was fifth-largest in the league. He got off the schneid against Tennessee, scoring on two of his 17 touches, adding 110 yards along the way. Kamara hadn't scored since Week 3, but he had managed touch totals of 19, 17, 15, 20 and 23 during his previous five games. Kamara is fantasy's No. 3-scoring running back since returning from injury in Week 10. He remains a solid weekly RB1 play and should be locked into lineups in Week 17 with New Orleans competing for a first-round bye.
Following a two-game injury absence, Daniel Jones completed 28 of 42 pass attempts for 352 yards and five touchdowns against Washington on Sunday. Jones has now thrown at least four touchdowns in three of his past six games and is up to 25 total scores in 11 starts this season. Jones ranks first in passing touchdowns per game (2.1) and 10th in fantasy points per game (18.3) during those 11 weeks. The Giants host the Eagles in Week 17 in what is a must-win game for Philadelphia. Consider the rookie a borderline QB1 option.
Le'Veon Bell drifted his way to 72 yards on 25 carries and 21 yards on four targets against the Steelers in Week 16. Bell has now reached 23 touches in back-to-back games and is averaging 20.1 touches per game this season, which includes at least 11 in all 13 outings. The heavy usage is terrific, but Bell is averaging a horrific 3.3 yards per carry and shaky 5.8 yards per target, which has limited what could've been a much better fantasy campaign. Bell has managed to finish as a top-10 fantasy back in 43% of his outings, which is sixth-best at the position, but he's best valued as an RB2 against a Bills defense that figures to rest some key players in Week 17.
Josh Jacobs was out again in Week 16, which opened the door for lead-back duties. DeAndre Washington played 63% of the snaps, which was the exact percentage he had played when Jacobs was out in Week 14. Washington turned the usage into 23 carries for 85 yards and one touchdown, as well as two catches for 21 yards. Jalen Richard played 39% of the snaps and registered 29 yards on nine touches. Washington has now produced a pair of top-12 fantasy weeks in his two starts, so if Jacobs sits out against a good Denver defense in Week 17, the veteran back will be squarely in the RB2 mix.
Dallas Goedert played 90% of the Eagles' offensive snaps and caught nine of 12 targets for 91 yards against Dallas on Sunday. All four were new career-high marks. With Philadelphia extremely depleted at wide receiver, Goedert has played an expanded role recently and has now handled at least five targets in eight consecutive games. He has five touchdowns on the season and is fantasy's No. 8 tight end since Week 6. Consider Goedert a back-end TE1 in a must-win game against the Giants in Week 17.
JuJu Smith-Schuster returned to action on Sunday after missing four games due to injury. Pittsburgh's slot receiver played a healthy 79% of the snaps, but he was limited to a 2-22-0 receiving line on four targets. Smith-Schuster hasn't cleared 7.4 fantasy points in a game since Week 8 and has produced only three weekly finishes better than 34th this season. Consider Smith-Schuster a poor flex option against Baltimore in Week 17. Back to full health and with Ben Roethlisberger likely under center, Smith-Schuster will be a bounce-back candidate in 2020.
Jimmy Garoppolo completed 16 of 27 pass attempts for 248 yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions against the Rams in Week 16. It was yet another poor fantasy performance from the quarterback currently 14th at the position in points. Garoppolo has more weekly finishes of 20th or worse (eight) than he has finishes better than 14th (five). Garoppolo pops for the occasional big game, but he's far from a reliable QB1. He'll be a poor starting option in the NFC West championship against Seattle in Week 17.
Both Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise went down with season-ending injuries on Sunday, and the duo will join Rashaad Penny on injured reserve. Travis Homer was the next man up against Arizona, and the rookie played all 26 of the offensive snaps in the second half, totaling 16 yards on five carries and six catches for 26 yards on eight targets. The Seahawks signed Robert Turbin and Marshawn Lynch on Monday, but Homer is a strong bet to play a significant role against the 49ers on Sunday night. Consider Homer a flex.
With Mike Evans on injured reserve and Chris Godwin out, the Buccaneers' wide receiver usage was as follows in Week 16: Breshad Perriman 96% of snaps/12 targets, Justin Watson 96%/10, Ishmael Hyman, 64%/3 , Cyril Grayson 4%/0 , Spencer Schnell 1%/0. Perriman was the most productive receiver, with a 7-102-0 receiving line, though Watson was able to find the end zone while catching five passes for 43 yards. Perriman has now produced 70-plus receiving yards in four consecutive games and has scored four touchdowns during the span. He should be locked into Week 17 lineups. Watson will only be a flex option if Godwin remains out.
Derrick Henry was held out of Sunday's meaningless game against New Orleans. In his place, Dion Lewis played 69% of the snaps, compared to 28% for Dalyn Dawkins and 7% for Khari Blasingame. Lewis carried the ball 15 times for 68 yards and caught one of two targets for 19 yards. Dawkins added nine carries and Blasingame didn't have a touch. Henry is expected back for what is essentially a playoff game at Houston in Week 17, but if he remains out, Lewis will obviously be on the RB2 radar.
Steven Sims Jr. recorded his first career touchdown reception in Week 15 and then proceeded to catch two more against the Giants in Week 16. Sims has now been targeted at least 10 times each of the past two weeks while replacing Trey Quinn as Washington's primary slot receiver. Sims, who went undrafted out of Kansas earlier this year, is seeing more than enough volume to put him on the flex radar against Dallas in Week 17.