The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league's 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
Note that data from Monday Night Football may not immediately be reflected in charts.
Throughout the team-by-team rundowns, I'll be referencing "OFP" and "OTD." OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's opportunity to score fantasy points, or his "expected" fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it's touchdowns. Volume is paramount in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook.
That said, here is the post-Week 2 OFP Leaderboard:
Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload:
And these are the players who fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn't be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions:
After rushing for 1,001 yards at Oklahoma last season, Kyler Murray has registered a total of 17 yards on six carries in two NFL games. Murray has been responsible for five designed runs, meaning he has scrambled on only one of his 103 dropbacks. On the plus side, Murray leads the league in pass attempts (94) and sits second among quarterbacks in OFP (43). If the Cardinals can turn some field goal attempts into touchdowns and Murray runs a bit more than he has, it's still very likely he'll manage QB1 numbers this season.
Calvin Ridley has run a route on 73 of Atlanta's 94 pass plays and has handled 16 targets (18% team share) so far this season. Mohamed Sanu (83) and Julio Jones (79) have both run more routes, but Ridley is ahead of Sanu (13) in targets and just behind Jones (21). Most importantly, Ridley is getting high-value targets, as his 31 OFP ranks 16th among wide receivers. Ridley's touchdown rate will regress to the mean, but he's seeing enough volume in a good pass offense to allow WR3 numbers.
Mark Andrews may not be a full-time player, but he's shining where it counts for fantasy. Andrews has played only 48% of Baltimore's snaps this season, but he's run a route on 61% of the team's pass plays and is handling a massive 30% target share. The 2018 third-round pick has caught 16 of 18 targets for 220 yards and two touchdowns in two games. Fantasy's top-scoring tight end is obviously a strong weekly TE1 play.
Josh Allen seems to have turned a corner. After completing only 53% of his passes and posting an ugly 6.5 YPA as a rookie, Allen has been more conservative (8.7 aDOT) and efficient (64% completion rate, 7.6 YPA) in 2019. Meanwhile, he's still using his legs plenty (17 rush attempts, two touchdowns). Allen has benefited from two "easy" matchups to open 2019, but the Bills have one of the easiest schedules the rest of the season. That includes Cincinnati at home this week. Consider Allen a back-end QB1.
Greg Olsen has been on the field for 88% of the Panthers' snaps this season, including 76 of 95 possible pass plays. The heavy workload has allowed him nine targets in both of his games and the ninth-most fantasy points at the position. Olsen's past two seasons have been derailed by injury, but he posted three consecutive top-five fantasy campaigns prior to 2017. He's back in the weekly TE1 discussion.
Week 1 raised concerns about David Montgomery's fantasy value after he finished third among the team's running backs in snaps and touches. Things changed pretty significantly on Sunday, with Montgomery playing a position-high 46% of the snaps. Montgomery racked up 18 carries and three targets on 26 snaps. Tarik Cohen sustained his pass-catching role (five targets and four carries on 21 snaps) and Mike Davis was a relative non-factor (three carries and zero targets on 13 snaps). Montgomery ranks 14th among backs in OFP for the season, thanks primarily to a league-high four carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (no other Bears player has more than zero). Montgomery's Week 2 usage suggests we can rely on the rookie as a flex (and perhaps RB2) moving forward.
Tyler Eifert found the end zone in Week 2, but the oft-injured tight end is not yet back in the TE1 conversation. Eifert was on the field for only 16 snaps on Sunday and has played 38% of the team's snaps this season. C.J. Uzomah (65%) is the team's No. 1 tight end, with second-round rookie Drew Sample (15%) also in the mix.
Odell Beckham Jr. may have been a bit over his head in Week 1 (see the above FORP charts), but based on his usage and production, he's well on his way to another elite fantasy campaign. Beckham has been on the field for 76 of Cleveland's 81 pass plays and is handling a hefty 29% target share (10.0 per game). He ranks fourth in the league in receiving yards and is arguably the best option at wide receiver in Week 3 with a ton of passing likely in a showdown with the Rams.
Jason Witten scored a touchdown in each of his two games since returning to Dallas, but he's not a player you need to rush to pick up via waivers. Witten has been on the field for a healthy 74% of Dallas' offensive snaps but has totaled seven catches on eight targets for 40 yards. Witten's 0.9 OTD tells us he's over his head in the touchdown department, which makes sense, considering he hasn't eclipsed five touchdowns in a season since 2013.
Following Week 1, it appeared that while Denver was using more of a committee at running back, Phillip Lindsay was the more valuable asset as the primary pass-catching back. Week 2 painted a different picture, with Royce Freeman running 21 routes and posting a 7-5-48-0 receiving line, compared to a 7-4-30-0 line from Lindsay on 23 routes. Both backs played exactly half of the team's offensive snaps and, while Lindsay held a 13-to-11 edge in carries, Freeman was more effective (54 yards to 36 yards). Lindsay remains the preferred play, but both second-year backs are best as flex options.
As expected, Kerryon Johnson hasn't been a workhorse but is the clear featured back in Detroit. Johnson has been on the field for 56% of the offensive snaps, including 58% of pass plays. His 29 pass routes and five targets are more than the rest of the team's tailbacks combined (27, 4). Johnson's 3.21 YPC is a huge drop from last season's 5.43, but the sample size is small (28 carries) and his 1.96 YAC is slightly above average. Johnson remains a solid RB2 play.
With two games down, Aaron Jones has played 76 snaps (60% team share), compared to 53 (42%) for Jamaal Williams. Jones has dominated the carries (36 to 14) but trails Williams slightly in pass routes (28 to 29). Jones' role and strong efficiency (he's averaging more than 4.3 YPC for the third season in a row) keep him in the RB2 mix, though he'll lack high-end upside as long as Williams remains so involved.
Keke Coutee made his 2019 debut on Sunday and was on the field for 44% of the offensive snaps. He filled in well behind DeAndre Hopkins (94%) and Will Fuller V (90%) but was ahead of Kenny Stills (37%). Logic suggests Coutee's role will grow, but with Hopkins and Fuller locked into every-down roles and Stills unlikely to completely disappear, it's hard to see Coutee working his way into fantasy value in the near future. He's best as a deep-league and dynasty hold.
In their first game without Devin Funchess on Sunday, Deon Cain was on the field for 46% of the Colts' offensive snaps, which trailed only T.Y. Hilton (89%) among the team's wide receivers. Cain rotated with the likes of Zach Pascal (45%), Chester Rogers (40%) and Parris Campbell (25%). Hilton was the only receiver to clear 25 receiving yards, with Cain failing to catch a pass and the rookie Campbell scoring on his only target. Hilton is the only Colts wideout who should be in lineups, whereas Cain and Campbell are no more than end-of-bench stashes in 12-team leagues.
It appears that the Gardner Minshew-to-DJ Chark connection is a force to be reckoned with. After posting a 4-146-1 line on four targets in Week 1, Chark put up a 7-55-1 line on a team-high nine targets in Week 2. Most importantly, Chark has been on the field for 74% of the Jaguars' pass plays, which is within arm's length of Dede Westbrook (83%) and Chris Conley (79%). Chark has posted a pair of top-12 fantasy weeks and currently sits sixth in fantasy points at the position. The uncertainty at quarterback remains a concern, but Chark's 20% target share and playmaking ability certainly make him a fine flex with room for more.
With Tyreek Hill sidelined, Demarcus Robinson exploded for six receptions, 172 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Oakland on Sunday. Robinson matched Sammy Watkins by playing 91% of the snaps, whereas rookie Mecole Hardman played 74%. Watkins (12 targets) and Travis Kelce (nine) were Patrick Mahomes' primary targets, as expected, with Robinson (six) and Hardman (five) next in line. Robinson likely just posted his best game of the season (or career?), but his playing time suggests he should be in lineups until Hill returns. Consider him -- and Hardman -- flex options.
With Hunter Henry sidelined, Virgil Green was on the field for 87% of the Chargers' snaps against Detroit. Sean Culkin (26%) was the next man up. Unsurprisingly, neither was close to fantasy relevance, with Green hauling in one of his two targets for 9 yards and Culkin not handling any targets. Week 2 was simply confirmation that the Chargers aren't the answer to our probably O.J. Howard-induced tight end woes.
There was some offseason chatter that Sean McVay might use more two-tight-end sets this season. So much for that. Robert Woods (97%), Brandin Cooks (94%) and Cooper Kupp (91%) have all been near-every-down players again this season. The Rams have had a third wideout on the field for 96% of their pass plays, which is fourth highest in the league. All three players were top-15 fantasy receivers when healthy together last, but the trio has combined for zero top-15 fantasy weeks this season. The Rams have scored six touchdowns in two games, but only two have been passes, which helps explain the lack of fantasy production. Better days are ahead for the heavily utilized receivers, and all three should be in lineups.
The Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 thus far, but one bright spot has been the performance of undrafted rookie WR Preston Williams. Williams put up four catches for 63 yards on six targets Sunday after finding the end zone on five targets in Week 1. The rookie was fourth in line for snaps among the team's receivers in Week 1 but jumped to second (67%) in Week 2, trailing only DeVante Parker (92%). Miami's horrific offense is a problem, so while the future looks bright, Williams needs to be rostered only in deeper and dynasty leagues.
With two games in the book, Adam Thielen has registered eight catches, 118 yards and one touchdown, and Stefon Diggs has been limited to three catches, 86 yards and one score on nine targets. Thielen ranks 33rd and Diggs 66th at wide receiver in fantasy points after finishing seventh and 15th, respectively, in 2018. Granted, those numbers are deflated by Minnesota attempting 10 passes in Week 1, but they attempted "only" 32 despite trailing early and often in Week 2. In fact, once adjusted for game script, Minnesota has called the league's run-heaviest offense through two games (62% expected, 44% actual). Healthy target shares suggest better days are ahead, but the fantasy ceiling for both players is much lower than in years past.
Antonio Brown certainly made his mark in his Patriots debut. Despite playing 32% of the snaps, Brown posted a 4-56-1 line on a team-high eight targets, which included three end zone targets. Brown's role is only going to grow, and the game script will generally lead to more passing volume, so it's fair to say you can once again feel OK about starting Brown as your WR1.
Drew Brees went down with a hand injury on Sunday and is expected to miss roughly six weeks. Teddy Bridgewater attempted 30 passes in his place, and the target distribution was as follows: Michael Thomas 11, Jared Cook 5, Alvin Kamara 3, Taysom Hill 3, Tre'Quan Smith 2, Deonte Harris 1, Latavius Murray 1, Zach Line 1. Aside from Thomas, Bridgewater spread the ball around fairly well, though Ted Ginn Jr. (ran 30 of 37 routes) was noticeably absent. That probably isn't a coincidence, considering Bridgewater's conservative nature (career 7.4 aDOT). Thomas is the only Saints player we can feel confident starting for the time being, with Cook now more of a fringe top-12 tight end option.
After exploding for 11 catches, 116 yards and a score on 14 targets in Week 1, Evan Engram regressed to a 6-48-0 line on eight targets in Week 2, which was still enough for a top-12 fantasy week. Engram has been on the field for 77% of New York's snaps and has run a route on 77 of 95 pass plays. His 22 targets are tied for seventh most in the entire league, and his 36 OFP trails only Zach Ertz (42) and Kelce (37) at tight end. Engram is a slam dunk top-five fantasy tight end.
Le'Veon Bell is averaging 3.37 yards per carry and 4.89 yards per target this season. Not good, right? Well, despite the horrific efficiency (which is not necessarily his fault, by the way), Bell sits fifth among running backs in fantasy points. Bell's 44 fantasy points through two games are a testament to the "volume is king" narrative, as Bell sits third among backs in carries (38) and first in both targets (19) and receptions (16). Bell has been on the field for 118 of the Jets' 125 offensive snaps and trails only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in OFP. Bell's efficiency can only get better, and he's the same workhorse he was in Pittsburgh. Consider him a solid weekly RB1 play.
The Raiders have run 114 offensive snaps this season, and Darren Waller has been on the field for 111 of them. The ex-wide receiver has seen target totals of seven and eight in the two games, posting a receiving line of 13-133-0 during that span. His OFP ranks ninth at the position, and that's with him having yet to see a target near the goal line. Waller's massive role has him locked into the TE1 mix moving forward. He should be rostered in all 10-team leagues.
A barrage of injuries around him was a key reason, but Zach Ertz was an absolute workhorse on Sunday night. Ertz played all 72 of the Eagles' snaps and was targeted more than 15 times for the sixth time in his career. Ertz paced all players in OFP in Week 2 (see the above charts) and sits seventh overall for the season. Ertz paced all tight ends in the category last season, and his actual point total was only one above his expected total. That's notable because Ertz has "underachieved" by 15 points through two weeks. Expect him to regress to the mean in the coming weeks, which should get him back on track and allow continued top-end TE1 numbers.
Following a disastrous Week 1 performance, Donte Moncrief unsurprisingly played a reduced role in Week 2. Moncrief was on the field for 31% of the Steelers' snaps, compared to 82% for JuJu Smith-Schuster, 57% for James Washington, 47% for Diontae Johnson and 25% for Ryan Switzer. With a wide receiver by committee still in play and Ben Roethlisberger done for the season, only Smith-Schuster should be in fantasy lineups. Washington remains your best bench stash, especially considering Mason Rudolph was his quarterback at Oklahoma State.
The 49ers' wide receiver usage continues to be tough to predict. Marquise Goodwin (49% of snaps), Dante Pettis (49%), Richie James (43%), Deebo Samuel (40%) and Kendrick Bourne (34%) all played at least one-third of the snaps, but none had more than half on Sunday. As if that's not hard enough to sort through, Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd are expected back from injury in the next week or two. None of these players should be in fantasy lineups, though the rookie Samuel is the most attractive roster stash. His 20 OFP ranks 43rd at the position.
Tyler Lockett entered Week 2 having never cleared seven receptions in a single game. He went on to easily set a career high with 10 catches against Pittsburgh, registering 79 yards on 12 targets. The common thought with Lockett during the offseason was that his historically great rate stats would regress, but he'd make up for some of that with heavier volume. So far, so good. After averaging 14.2 yards per target and scoring on 14.7% of his targets last season, Lockett is averaging 8.8 YPT and sports a 7.1% touchdown rate this season. His targets have increased from 4.25 per game to 7.0 per game. Lockett is a WR3 play with WR2 upside in Seattle's high-scoring offense.
O.J. Howard entered the season seemingly on the verge of a third-year breakout. Needless to say, he's off to a slow start. Howard was limited to 32 yards on five targets in Week 1 before failing to see a single target in Week 2. If there's a silver lining, Howard has been on the field for 85% of the Buccaneers' snaps, including 75% of pass plays. It's hard to imagine Howard not rebounding -- perhaps in a big way -- but for now, he's best left on benches.
A.J. Brown made some noise in Week 1 with 100 yards on four targets in a limited role (39% of the snaps), but the impressive showing didn't lead to much of a promotion in Week 2. Brown played 46% of the snaps and was held to 25 yards on five targets. Brown very well could emerge as Tennessee's top wideout at some point this season, but, for now, he's still fourth in line for snaps behind Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe and slot Adam Humphries. Stash Brown on the end of your bench in 12-team leagues.
The Washington backfield was about as expected with Derrius Guice sidelined on Sunday. Chris Thompson was tops in the snap department (49%), with Adrian Peterson (29%) handling most of the carries (10) and Wendell Smallwood (22%) mixed in a bit more than expected. Peterson will find the end zone occasionally, which gives him some flex appeal, but he has a low ceiling and floor. Thompson currently paces all running backs with 18 targets and 12 receptions. Fantasy's No. 20-scoring running back should be rostered in all PPR leagues, especially with Washington likely to be trailing often this season.