Fantasy hockey rankings: Why you should be optimistic about Carter Hart

Carter Hart (L) makes the save on a shot from top-ranked player Connor McDavid. Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire

There is little doubt the high-danger shots tracked by NaturalStatTrick.com are indeed wrought with risk. Looking only at goaltenders with at least 10 starts last season, high-danger shots accounted for 26 percent of the total shots against them, but they accounted for 55 percent of the total goals.

How individual goalies perform against the high-danger chances tends to fluctuate from season to season, but one thing we can look at with a smaller sample size is how many of these high-danger shots they are being subjected to.

High-danger shots against per 60 minutes (HDP60) will give us an indication of which teams are hanging their goaltenders out to dry a little more than others. At the very least, we can go over some of the numbers that could be telling us something.

Linus Ullmark, G, Boston Bruins: Last season, Jaroslav Halak, Jeremy Swayman and Tuukka Rask all finished near the top of the pack for facing the fewest high-danger shots per 60 minutes. So it's encouraging to see Ullmark atop that leaderboard in the early going for the same Bruins club. Ullmark had to face an average of 7.03 HDP60 last season for the Buffalo Sabres, but has been limited to just 5.45 so far this season in net for the Bruins. For what it's worth, Swayman is also facing a minimal number of high-danger chances per game this season, but Ullmark has posted better results. It's likely he's earned the lion's share of the workload for the time being and should be viewed as a potential top netminder if he continues to break away from Swayman.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Colorado Avalanche: I don't think we need to show you statistics to point out that Kuemper is in a much better situation than last season. But, because we have them: Kuemper faced 7.18 HDP60 last year with the Arizona Coyotes, but only 5.60 so far with the Avalanche this season. While Philippe Grubauer dealt with 6.31 HDP60 last season for Colorado, there's an argument to be made that the team has improved it's defense in the offseason, so this new lower number could stick. Kuemper isn't popping off statistically just yet, but stay the course with him.

Jacob Markstrom, G, Calgary Flames: The early season success from Markstrom is promising, and the team did make a marginal improvement to the high-danger shots he's facing -- 7.07 HDP60 last season compared to 6.47 this season. However, Markstrom might turn back into at least a partial pumpkin soon. He was slightly below average with a .799 save percentage on high-danger shots last season, but this year he has posted a completely unsustainable .949 mark. There's some regression coming here.

Robin Lehner, G, Vegas Golden Knights: Until the Golden Knights get healthy, Lehner should be started with some skepticism. I'm blaming the key injuries here for the team slipping from allowing 7.79 HDP60 against Lehner last season (and 7.46 against Marc-Andre Fleury) to allowing 10.50 so far this season. That's a tough increase to swallow.

Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Detroit Red Wings: While I had hopes for Nedeljkovic to be the answer in net for the Red Wings, it doesn't look like he's getting a fighting chance this season. From the friendly confines of facing 7.07 HDP60 with the Carolina Hurricanes last season, Nedeljkovic is in the fire against 10.25 HDP60 this season. It's time to cut bait if you have him.

Carter Hart, G, Philadelphia Flyers: There isn't much to see when it comes to how many high-danger shots Hart is facing: 9.12 HDP60 last season and 9.37 this season. But how he's handling them is encouraging. A lowly .751 save percentage on high-danger chances last season didn't help with Hart's massive struggles. So far this season, he's posted an .872 save percentage on high-danger shots. The fantasy results haven't been there yet this year, but he's another goaltender worth waiting on.

Forwards on the move

Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (up three spots to No. 29): Making his season debut on Saturday, Crosby skated 19:16 in a loss to the New Jersey Devils. On the plus side, he played a team-high 6:13 on the power play. Evan Rodrigues continues to be a Bryan Rust replacement on Crosby's line with Jake Guentzel, and is an option until we see Rust edge closer to a return. One game isn't enough to draw judgement, but the fact that the Penguins offense has been decently successful while very short-handed bodes well for Crosby as he ramps up.

Alex DeBrincat, W, Chicago Blackhawks (down nine spots to No. 50): It's never good to see DeBrincat separated from Patrick Kane. It's even worse when the resulting game is the Blackhawks first win of the season in which Kane notched a hat trick. DeBrincat still got time on the top power play and he's too talented for the team to keep on a third line, but it's not a great start to the campaign for him.

Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Winnipeg Jets (up 57 spots to No. 95): It looks like the Jets are willing to let Dubois attempt to anchor a scoring line with Kyle Connor going forward. With Mark Schiefele back at practice for the first time in a couple weeks, Dubois was still riding with Connor. The pair have been successful in the absence of both Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, so they will get a chance to continue together. Two things from this: Check your league for Dubois, as he could be there in shallow leagues still (20 percent availability), but also keep an eye on Evgeny Svechnikov in deeper leagues, as he gets to play on that top line while the Jets are spreading out the offense. For what it's worth, Adam Lowry could also be interesting, as he skated with Scheifele and Wheeler at practice. This would all blow up if the Jets lose some games, so don't get too attached to any of it.

Defensemen on the move

Ivan Provorov, D, Philadelphia Flyers (down 19 spots to No. 66): Keith Yandle is an even larger share of the power play than estimated coming into the season. With 19:54 player on the advantage so far, Yandle is claiming the top unit as his own. Provorov still generates a ton of counting stats for fantasy, and is still doing OK with 1.9 fantasy points per game -- but he's not elite without those power-play minutes. We knew this was a threat coming into the season after the Flyers added three new accomplished offensive defensemen in Yandle, Ryan Ellis and Rasmus Ristolainen.

Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles Kings (down 100 spots to No. 160): A knee injury will take Doughty out of the mix for eight weeks. While I had initially sounded the alarm about nabbing Alexander Edler, given his history as a power-play quarterback with the Vancouver Canucks, the team has chosen a different path. Kale Clague was called up from the AHL and given the assignment as QB. The 23-year-old is absolutely worth adding to rosters with Doughty out for so long. Clague has been honing his game in the AHL for three previous seasons (with occasional cups of coffee in the NHL mixed in) and is theoretically ready to handle the duties. He's picked up a power-play assist in each of his first two games.

New to rankings

Linus Ullmark, Anton Lundell (back this week), Braden Holtby (better results should be coming, right?), Kevin Shattenkirk (still not completely sold on this start but hard to argue with the results), Rasmus Andersson, Yanni Gourde, Christian Dvorak, Matt Duchene (more encouraged with every game), Brayden McNabb, Evan Bouchard, Jonathan Dahlen, Jamie Drysdale, Ben Chiarot, Danton Heinen, Derick Brassard and Mikko Koskinen (has he earned a split when Mike Smith is back?).

Just missed

Brendan Gallagher, Owen Tippett, Filip Hronek, Devon Toews (could return this week), Alexandre Texier, Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri, Jared McCann, Kevin Labanc, Ville Husso, Ivan Barbashev (success could be short-lived with the team short-handed), Ryan Getzlaf, Troy Terry, Cam Fowler, Craig Anderson, Brett Pesce (secondary power-play time), Robby Fabbri and James Reimer.

Dropped out

Nick Ritchie (swing and miss on this sleeper), Dylan Cozens, Alex Nedeljkovic, William Karlsson (he'll be back, but six weeks is too long to keep him ranked), James van Riemsdyk, Eeli Tolvanen, Nikita Zaitsev, Jack Roslovic, Noah Hanifin, Gustav Nyquist, Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Palmieri, Jeremy Swayman, Maxime Comtois, Brian Dumoulin and Calvin Petersen.

Top-250 rankings

1. Connor McDavid, F, EDM (F1)
2. Leon Draisaitl, F, EDM (F2)
3. Alex Ovechkin, F, WSH (F3)
4. Auston Matthews, F, TOR (F4)
5. Nathan MacKinnon, F, COL (F5)
6. Roman Josi, D, NSH (D1)
7. Mikko Rantanen, F, COL (F6)
8. David Pastrnak, F, BOS (F7)
9. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G1)
10. Mika Zibanejad, F, NYR (F8)
11. Brad Marchand, F, BOS (F9)
12. Aleksander Barkov, F, FLA (F10)
13. Andrei Svechnikov, F, CAR (F11)
14. Anze Kopitar, F, LA (F12)
15. Mitch Marner, F, TOR (F13)
16. Dougie Hamilton, D, NJ (D2)
17. John Carlson, D, WSH (D3)
18. Sebastian Aho, F, CAR (F14)
19. Robin Lehner, G, VGS (G2)
20. Mark Scheifele, F, WPG (F15)
21. Tyler Seguin, F, DAL (F16)
22. Kirill Kaprizov, F, MIN (F17)
23. Frederik Andersen, G, CAR (G3)
24. Patrik Laine, F, CLS (F18)
25. Juuse Saros, G, NSH (G4)
26. Darnell Nurse, D, EDM (D4)
27. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D5)
28. Kyle Connor, F, WPG (F19)
29. Sidney Crosby, F, PIT (F20)
30. Jonathan Huberdeau, F, FLA (F21)
31. Steven Stamkos, F, TB (F22)
32. Aaron Ekblad, D, FLA (D6)
33. Ilya Sorokin, G, NYI (G5)
34. Artemi Panarin, F, NYR (F23)
35. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D7)
36. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G6)
37. Vladimir Tarasenko, F, STL (F24)
38. Connor Hellebuyck, G, WPG (G7)
39. Cale Makar, D, COL (D8)
40. Darcy Kuemper, G, COL (G8)
41. Brady Tkachuk, F, OTT (F25)
42. Seth Jones, D, CHI (D9)
43. David Perron, F, STL (F26)
44. Elias Lindholm, F, CGY (F27)
45. Taylor Hall, F, BOS (F28)
46. Timo Meier, F, SJ (F29)
47. Patrick Kane, F, CHI (F30)
48. Gabriel Landeskog, F, COL (F31)
49. Elias Pettersson, F, VAN (F32)
50. Alex DeBrincat, F, CHI (F33)
51. Logan Couture, F, SJ (F34)
52. Sean Couturier, F, PHI (F35)
53. Jordan Binnington, G, STL (G9)
54. Zach Hyman, F, EDM (F36)
55. Brayden Point, F, TB (F37)
56. Charlie McAvoy, D, BOS (D10)
57. Chris Kreider, F, NYR (F38)
58. Jacob Markstrom, G, CGY (G10)
59. Neal Pionk, D, WPG (D11)
60. Tony DeAngelo, D, CAR (D12)
61. Evgeny Kuznetsov, F, WSH (F39)
62. J.T. Miller, F, VAN (F40)
63. Alex Pietrangelo, D, VGS (D13)
64. Jake Guentzel, F, PIT (F41)
65. Adam Henrique, F, ANA (F42)
66. Ivan Provorov, D, PHI (D14)
67. Philipp Grubauer, G, SEA (G11)
68. Zach Werenski, D, CLS (D15)
69. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, F, EDM (F43)
70. Tyler Bertuzzi, F, DET (F44)
71. Joel Farabee, F, PHI (F45)
72. Sam Bennett, F, FLA (F46)
73. Elvis Merzlikins, G, CLS (G12)
74. Dylan Larkin, F, DET (F47)
75. Moritz Seider, D, DET (D16)
76. Teuvo Teravainen, F, CAR (F48)
77. MacKenzie Weegar, D, FLA (D17)
78. John Tavares, F, TOR (F49)
79. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D18)
80. Drake Batherson, F, OTT (F50)
81. Ondrej Palat, F, TB (F51)
82. Jesse Puljujarvi, F, EDM (F52)
83. Miro Heiskanen, D, DAL (D19)
84. Bryan Rust, F, PIT (F53)
85. Lucas Raymond, F, DET (F54)
86. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D20)
87. Vincent Trocheck, F, CAR (F55)
88. Ryan O'Reilly, F, STL (F56)
89. Joel Eriksson Ek, F, MIN (F57)
90. Tristan Jarry, G, PIT (G13)
91. Patrice Bergeron, F, BOS (F58)
92. Kris Letang, D, PIT (D21)
93. Roope Hintz, F, DAL (F59)
94. Nico Hischier, F, NJ (F60)
95. Pierre-Luc Dubois, F, WPG (F61)
96. Mathew Barzal, F, NYI (F62)
97. Ryan Ellis, D, PHI (D22)
98. Bo Horvat, F, VAN (F63)
99. Cam Atkinson, F, PHI (F64)
100. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, FLA (G14)
101. Mathew Dumba, D, MIN (D23)
102. Matthew Tkachuk, F, CGY (F65)
103. Jordan Kyrou, F, STL (F66)
104. Jaden Schwartz, F, SEA (F67)
105. Vince Dunn, D, SEA (D24)
106. Nikolaj Ehlers, F, WPG (F68)
107. Filip Forsberg, F, NSH (F69)
108. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D25)
109. Brayden Schenn, F, STL (F70)
110. Conor Garland, F, VAN (F71)
111. Sam Reinhart, F, FLA (F72)
112. Jack Campbell, G, TOR (G15)
113. Victor Olofsson, F, BUF (F73)
114. Mats Zuccarello, F, MIN (F74)
115. Jared Spurgeon, D, MIN (D26)
116. Quinn Hughes, D, VAN (D27)
117. Thomas Chabot, D, OTT (D28)
118. Oliver Bjorkstrand, F, CLS (F75)
119. Mark Stone, F, VGS (F76)
120. Jordan Eberle, F, SEA (F77)
121. Anthony Duclair, F, FLA (F78)
122. Travis Konecny, F, PHI (F79)
123. Nick Suzuki, F, MON (F80)
124. Tyson Barrie, D, EDM (D29)
125. Ilya Samsonov, G, WSH (G16)
126. Boone Jenner, F, CLS (F81)
127. Viktor Arvidsson, F, LA (F82)
128. Martin Necas, F, CAR (F83)
129. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, F, NYI (F84)
130. Carter Hart, G, PHI (G17)
131. Jakob Chychrun, D, ARI (D30)
132. Nicklas Backstrom, F, WSH (F85)
133. Tyler Toffoli, F, MON (F86)
134. William Nylander, F, TOR (F87)
135. Alexander Radulov, F, DAL (F88)
136. Alec Martinez, D, VGS (D31)
137. Rickard Rakell, F, ANA (F89)
138. Josh Norris, F, OTT (F90)
139. Brock Boeser, F, VAN (F91)
140. Thatcher Demko, G, VAN (G18)
141. Brandon Tanev, F, SEA (F92)
142. John Gibson, G, ANA (G19)
143. Mike Smith, G, EDM (G20)
144. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI (D32)
145. Ryan Strome, F, NYR (F93)
146. Colton Parayko, D, STL (D33)
147. Max Pacioretty, F, VGS (F94)
148. Blake Coleman, F, CGY (F95)
149. Johnny Gaudreau, F, CGY (F96)
150. Carter Verhaeghe, F, FLA (F97)
151. Claude Giroux, F, PHI (F98)
152. Artem Zub, D, OTT (D34)
153. Cam Talbot, G, MIN (G21)
154. Alex Killorn, F, TB (F99)
155. Linus Ullmark, G, BOS (G22)
156. Ryan Graves, D, NJ (D35)
157. Kevin Fiala, F, MIN (F100)
158. Blake Wheeler, F, WPG (F101)
159. Mark Giordano, D, SEA (D36)
160. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D37)
161. Adam Larsson, D, SEA (D38)
162. Jake Muzzin, D, TOR (D39)
163. Keith Yandle, D, PHI (D40)
164. Adin Hill, G, SJ (G23)
165. Andrew Mangiapane, F, CGY (F102)
166. Tomas Hertl, F, SJ (F103)
167. Brock Nelson, F, NYI (F104)
168. J.T. Compher, F, COL (F105)
169. T.J. Oshie, F, WSH (F106)
170. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D41)
171. Tom Wilson, F, WSH (F107)
172. Ryan Johansen, F, NSH (F108)
173. Clayton Keller, F, ARI (F109)
174. Jakub Voracek, F, CLS (F110)
175. Alex Iafallo, F, LA (F111)
176. Mike Hoffman, F, MON (F112)
177. Andrew Copp, F, WPG (F113)
178. Spencer Knight, G, FLA (G24)
179. Jack Hughes, F, NJ (F114)
180. Jamie Benn, F, DAL (F115)
181. Anthony Mantha, F, WSH (F116)
182. Pavel Buchnevich, F, STL (F117)
183. Connor Murphy, D, CHI (D42)
184. Morgan Rielly, D, TOR (D43)
185. Joe Pavelski, F, DAL (F118)
186. Rasmus Dahlin, D, BUF (D44)
187. Nikita Kucherov, F, TB (F119)
188. Jonathan Marchessault, F, VGS (F120)
189. Jason Robertson, F, DAL (F121)
190. Alexis Lafreniere, F, NYR (F122)
191. Connor Brown, F, OTT (F123)
192. Shayne Gostisbehere, D, ARI (D45)
193. Tim Stutzle, F, OTT (F124)
194. Anton Lundell, F, FLA (F125)
195. Braden Holtby, G, DAL (G25)
196. Dominik Kubalik, F, CHI (F126)
197. Anders Lee, F, NYI (F127)
198. Jeff Petry, D, MON (D46)
199. Evan Rodrigues, F, PIT (F128)
200. Jeff Carter, F, PIT (F129)
201. Shea Theodore, D, VGS (D47)
202. Lawson Crouse, F, ARI (F130)
203. Torey Krug, D, STL (D48)
204. John Klingberg, D, DAL (D49)
205. Charlie Coyle, F, BOS (F131)
206. Kevin Shattenkirk, D, ANA (D50)
207. Rasmus Andersson, D, CGY (D51)
208. Paul Stastny, F, WPG (F132)
209. Jonas Brodin, D, MIN (D52)
210. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, F, CAR (F133)
211. Oliver Wahlstrom, F, NYI (F134)
212. Jonathan Toews, F, CHI (F135)
213. Kailer Yamamoto, F, EDM (F136)
214. Justin Faulk, D, STL (D53)
215. Jason Zucker, F, PIT (F137)
216. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, CHI (G26)
217. Esa Lindell, D, DAL (D54)
218. David Savard, D, MON (D55)
219. Yanni Gourde, F, SEA (F138)
220. Andre Burakovsky, F, COL (F139)
221. Noah Dobson, D, NYI (D56)
222. Kirby Dach, F, CHI (F140)
223. Mackenzie Blackwood, G, NJ (G27)
224. Alexander Wennberg, F, SEA (F141)
225. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, VAN (D57)
226. Petr Mrazek, G, TOR (G28)
227. Tyler Myers, D, VAN (D58)
228. Jordan Staal, F, CAR (F142)
229. Christian Dvorak, F, MON (F143)
230. Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI (G29)
231. Max Domi, F, CLS (F144)
232. Pavel Francouz, G, COL (G30)
233. Anthony Beauvillier, F, NYI (F145)
234. Joshua Morrissey, D, WPG (D59)
235. Hampus Lindholm, D, ANA (D60)
236. Trevor Zegras, F, ANA (F146)
237. Matt Duchene, F, NSH (F147)
238. Brayden McNabb, D, VGS (D61)
239. Zack Kassian, F, EDM (F148)
240. Christopher Tanev, D, CGY (D62)
241. Evan Bouchard, D, EDM (D63)
242. Calvin de Haan, D, CHI (D64)
243. Jonathan Dahlen, F, SJ (F149)
244. Jamie Drysdale, D, ANA (D65)
245. Ben Chiarot, D, MON (D66)
246. Mario Ferraro, D, SJ (D67)
247. Brandon Saad, F, STL (F150)
248. Danton Heinen, F, PIT (F151)
249. Derick Brassard, F, PHI (F152)
250. Mikko Koskinen, G, EDM (G31)