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Rookie pitchers will shine
By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com
These days, there are so many home runs hit that we have grown to accept them and their inflated numbers because they're always out there, like supermarket tabloids and what Tom Wolfe calls television's "Sabbathday Gasbags."
But as we watched the emergence of the Oakland Athletics as a 100-win team, the Astros survive a plague on their pitching staff and the Indians ride back into first place on the backs of a pair of precocious pitchers named C.C. Sabathia and Bartolo Colon, the tide seemed to finally be going back out.
Look at what Oakland has put together. Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito were 56-24 and, without much doubt, the best young rotation in the game, a rotation capable of winning any series in any postseason over the next four years. Houston's Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt and Tim Redding were 33-12, and the Astros have a kid lefty named Carlos Hernandez stepping in with this group that has a No. 1 in Oswalt. And those were two of 2001's four winningest teams.
As we start to look at the prospective 2002 rookies, it is further evident that there are several teams that believe that the Sinkerslider Generation may be a'changing.
For example:
No rookie may begin the spring with higher expectations than Marlins phenom Josh Beckett, he of the powerful delivery, 95-plus fastball and filthy hook. Considering that Florida already has three top-of-the-rotation starters in Brad Penny, Ryan Dempster and A.J. Burnett, the NL East could have four teams over .500.
The Cubs have received a lot of publicity for their veteran signings, like outfielder Moises Alou, but they have the possibility of putting together another overpowering staff. Kerry Wood is now two years off rehab, Juan Cruz and Carlos Zambrano are two of the top rookies for 2002 and off on the horizon is Mark Prior, last year's Josh Beckett (or Robert Brownlie). With second baseman Bobby Hill, third baseman David Kelton, center fielder Corey Patterson and first baseman Hee Seop Choi coming, the Cubs are one of the teams to watch through this decade.
So, too, are the Cardinals, with Matt Morris and Bud Smith, and the hope that Rick Ankiel makes it back and Jim Journell is ready to help by midseason. That's a lot of young, quality pitching.
Kevin Towers' reconstruction of the Padres will have them ready to make a run at another pennant by the time they get into their new stadium. It's easy to see the good young positional core, but by the middle of this season they will begin to reap the benefits of a pitching-deep organization. Dennis Tankersley will likely be first in line, but in the next 1½ seasons a succession of power arms -- Jake Peavey, Ben Howard and lefties Eric Cyr and Mark Phillips -- could make it to San Diego.
Philadelphia is regarded as one of the deepest teams in terms of pitching in either league. Brandon Duckworth, Dave Coggin ad Randy Wolf are establishing themselves, and look out for Brett Myers, Carlos Silva and Franklin Nunez making jumps similar to Duckworth made in 2001.
Two of Minnesota's best pitchers, Joe Mays and Eric Milton, are 26, and they have a phalanx close to stepping in: Brad Thomas, Adam Johnson, Johan Santana, Matt Kinney, Juan Rincon, J.C. Romero.
The White Sox have rebuilt around young pitching, and Mark Buehrle is already an All-Star, with Jon Garland and Danny Wright rising. Next in line: lefty Corwin Malone and 6-foot-10 right-hander Jon Rauch.
Seattle already has a 25-year old stopper in Freddy Garcia, and if Gil Meche and Ryan Anderson get healthy and Rafael Soriano keeps coming, by the end of 2002 they could have a young power staff to match Oakland.
No team better fits the change in tides than Cleveland. Colon, Sabathia and Danys Baez will be the front three this season, Ryan Drese could well be the fifth starter and the organizational philosophy is moving from 12-9 to 3-2.
About the only positive from 2001 in Baltimore was the experience gained by pitchers Josh Towers and Jason Johnson. Now with Sean Douglass, Aussie John Stephens, Rick Bauer, left-hander Erik Bedard and rehab cases Matt Riley and Luis Rivera, the long road back may be paved with pitching.
San Francisco figures it can retool quickly when necessary with Jerome Williams, Kurt Ainsworth and Boof Bonser. The Angels went out and got Kevin Appier and Aaron Sele to support Ramon Ortiz, Scott Schoeneweis and Jarrod Washburn. Colorado is trying to get Jason Jennings, Shawn Chacon, John Thomson and Dennis Stark through the Coors Lite wear and tear. Cincinnati took its growing pain lumps with Chris Reitsma and Lance Davis last season, and with a finite budget hopes youngsters like Ty Howington and Ricardo Aramboles move up in a hurry.
That's not to say that there aren't some extraordinary rookie positional players coming into spring training, because there are. The Pads are moving Phil Nevin to first to make room for third baseman Sean Burroughs, and Ramon Vazquez will likely be their shortstop after a strong Triple-A season and a great winter. The A's have Carlos Pena in the middle of their lineup at first base. Morgan Ensberg is expected to be the Astros' third baseman. Toby Hall brings blue ribbon credentials to the Devil Rays' catching job. Rangers third baseman Hank Blalock can really hit. Nick Johnson will get an opportunity to be the Yankee DH. Toronto could have three-fourths of its infield as first- or second-year players by midseason, with shortstop Felipe Lopez, third baseman Eric Hinske and second baseman Orlando Hudson, as well as catcher Josh Phelps.
But looking around at the A's and seeing what the Astros, Cubs, Mariners, Phillies, Marlins, White Sox, Indians and Cardinals are building make it appear as if the Sinkerslider 5.87 Generation may be coming to a close.
Rookies to watch: AL positional players
Carlos Pena, 1B, Oakland. Even with a half-season's stomach injury, he had a .408 OBP in Triple-A, hit lefties and righties within a point of one another, is a potential Gold Glover and a 2002 clubhouse answer to Don Mattingly.
Nick Johnson, DH-1B, New York. It's all about opportunity and health, because he is the poster boy for the Bill James Generation, disciplined to a career .407 OBP. In time, he can be a fine defender.
Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas. With all the rest of their thunder, the Rangers can hit him at the bottom of the order and watch. He batted .352 in Triple-A with 108 RBI and has one of the best swings you can imagine.
Eric Hinske, 3B, Toronto. The A's got him from the Cubs for Scott Chaisson, then turned him around for Billy Koch. Defense may take time, but he can hit and hit for power -- .926 OPS, 25 HR, 20 SB.
Mike Cuddyer, OF, Minnesota. He repeated at Double-A, went from six to 30 homers and upped his OPS more than 200 points. He is projected as an outfielder because Cory Koskie is locked at third. Possibly some much-needed power. Cuddyer and right fielder Mike Restovich are nice future corner outfielders.
Joe Crede, 3B, Chicago. He may have to wait in line for Jose Valentin, but has started to overcome injuries, as his 19 homers and 80 RBI indicate.
And two more who just miss being rookies this year
Toby Hall, C, Tampa Bay. He hit .335, had a 29/22 walk-strikeout ratio, slugged .568, got on base 38.5 percent of the time and his catching has improved every step along the way.
Felipe Lopez, SS, Toronto. The American League's all-around tools shortstop No. 5. He's still raw, but has a lot of power (.506 slugging in Triple-A), is a switch-hitter and needs a lot of patient teaching. The last 2½ seasons his walk-strikeout numbers are 100/290, but he can learn, and you can't teach his type of skills. With Vernon Wells in center, Lopez and Hudson in the middle and three good young catchers on the rise, the Jays have the makings of a power for years to come.
Rookies to watch: AL pitchers
Mario Ramos, Texas. The pitcher acquired for Carlos Pena. 30-9 in two seasons. Grady Fuson knew what he'd drafted and brought him to Texas.
Ryan Drese, Cleveland. Missed 2000, but was 10-8 in 2001 and showed flashes of being ready to step in behind the three kid arms.
Nate Cornejo, Detroit. Won 20 games on three levels, throws strikes and will get every opportunity on a team that may surprise some people.
Adam Johnson, Minnesota. The second pick in the nation two years ago was sought by several teams like the Blue Jays and Reds at the trading deadline. Makeup is the one question, but the stuff is there.
Casey Fossum, Boston. The Red Sox need a lefty reliever, and Joe Kerrigan wants to get Fossum experience and build up his endurance ... and lefties hit .179 off him in Double-A.
Not quite a rookie
Nick Bierbrodt, Tampa Bay. Some in Arizona questioned his makeup, and the fact remains that he's never won nine games in a season. But he got better as last year went along -- two years off surgery -- and showed power stuff after being acquired from the D-Backs.
AL midseason names to remember
Alex Escobar, OF, Cleveland. Some in the Mets organization wondered if his performance would ever match his hype, but he needs to play; injuries limited him to two games in '99, and he's never played more than 122 games. Indians believe he can be a superstar, in time. Eddie Murray will help.
Corwin Malone, LHP, Chicago White Sox. 2001 stats: 1.98 ERA, 177 strikeouts, 13-5. Career has 283 strikeouts in 258 innings. Fast approaching the Dan Ryan.
Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay. Great speed and talent, and could be in Tampa this summer, with Josh Hamilton and Rocco Baldelli in the fast lane as well.
Esteban German, 2B, Oakland. Scored 119 runs, 40 steals, had a .427 OBP, 10 homers in 2001. Career .406 OBP. Is he an Athletic, or what?
Orlando Hudson, 2B, Toronto. Switch-hitter with great instincts, had 36 doubles and 11 triples and a strong Arizona Fall League.
Brandon Claussen, LHP, New York Yankees. He may have to wait, but 220 strikeouts in 187 innings with a 2.31 ERA between Class A and Double-A ? could get him the fifth hole by August, or traded for whatever Brian Cashman wants.
John Stephens, RHP, Baltimore. Scouts doubt his stuff, but he was fourth in the minors with 191 strikeouts, held lefties to a .173 average and has a career 646-125 strikeout/walk ratio. Hmm.
John Phelps, C, Toronto. The catching has a way to go, but he hit 31 homers, had a .406 OBP and slugged .562. And Toronto has two more prized young catchers named Jayson Werth and Kevin Cash.
Billy Traber, LHP, Cleveland. Came with Escobar.
Sean Douglass, RHP, Baltimore.
Greg Montalbano, LHP, Boston. Throw away the radar gun, watch hitters' reactions (was 12-6 in A-AA in first full pro season) and realize the makeup, for this is a man who has survived four operations for cancer to become the fastest-rising starter in the organization. Montalbano and undrafted fellow lefty Chris Elmore could be in Boston by August.
Dewon Brazelton, RHP, Tampa Bay. The No. 3 pick in the nation last June with command of three pitches and an opportunity to pitch right away in the bigs.
Mike Smith, RHP, Toronto. Fifth in the minors in innings (187.2), eighth in ERA (2.26) in first full season. Superior athlete from University of Richmond.
Omar Infante, SS, Detroit.
Rookies to watch: NL positional players
Sean Burroughs, 3B, San Diego. He's 21, has .416 OBP discipline, hit .349 off lefties and is going to hit for power in time.
Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Houston. Astros claim he knows the game like Jimy Williams, with the ability to adjust as well as judge. In 87 games, he hit 23 homers and had a .961 OPS, and his average has gone from .230 to .279 to .300 to .310 up the ladder.
Ramon Vazquez, SS, San Diego. Doesn't run well, but is a steady shortstop who walked 76 times in the PCL, hit .300, showed power and went out and won the Puerto Rican League MVP award.
Wilson Betemit, SS, Atlanta. The Braves will give this incredibly talented 21-year-old the same chance afforded Rafael Furcal -- who was a natural second baseman -- got two years ago. In 47 games in Double-A, he hit .355 with a .394 OBP and .514 slugging.
Adam Everett, SS, Houston. The question is the bat, but Jimy Williams loved him before he got traded for Carl Everett. We know which Everett is Jimy's favorite.
Jack Cust, OF, Colorado. Most scouts feel he has DH written all over him, but for now the Rockies want to see if he can learn to at least be a Dante Bichette left fielder with 40-homer potential. Hey, he'll work at it.
Not quite a rookie
Brad Wilkerson, OF, Montreal. He's a sleeper. Ask the A's, Padres and several other teams who have been trying to get him.
Rookies to watch: NL pitchers
Josh Beckett, Florida. 200 minor league innings, 264 strikeouts ... health is the only question.
Juan Cruz, Chicago. And there are some baseball people who like this guy even more ... 293 strikeouts in 261 2/3 innings.
Carlos Hernandez, Houston. Hurt his shoulder sliding in September, but if he's healthy, his two full pro seasons and 364 punchados in 304-2/3 innings show him to be a potential star.
Carlos Zambrano, Chicago. Control is the one thing that could put him in the bullpen, but the stuff is there to contribute somewhere, like with Kyle Farnsworth in front of Flash Gordon.
Nick Neugebauer, Milwaukee. Health and control are issues, but he's been clocked at 103 and fanned more than 12 batters per nine innings. In time might be a great closer.
Kurt Ainsworth, San Francisco. The question will be opportunity, but he can flat pitch.
Jason Jennings, Colorado.
Denny Stark, Colorado.
NL midseason names to remember
Bobby Hill, 2B, Chicago. Batting leadoff for years to come.
Dennis Tankersley, RHP, San Diego. And to think the Padres got him for Ed Sprague.
Brett Myers, RHP, Philadelphia. Big-time battler, good stuff, 28-12 in 2½ year minor league career.
Marlon Byrd, OF, Philadelphia. Power, speed ... Eventually will get full shot when Phils decide what to do with free agent Scott Rolen and first baseman Travis Lee.
David Kelton, 3B, Chicago. Has .927 OPS in minor league career, and like Hill, Choi and right-hander Ben Christensen was held back by injuries.
Abraham Nunez, OF, Florida. Injuries have held back this five-tool talent, who one baseball exec thinks is better than Escobar. Can walk, hit for power but needs to play.
Austin Kearns, OF, Cincinnati. He could go right in for Opening Day, and a Kearns/Griffey/Adam Dunn outfield take the Reds right into their new stadium.
Jake Peavy, RHP, San Diego.
Carlos Silva, RHP, Philadelphia.
Jose Valverde, RHP, Arizona. Bomb-thrower with 72 strikeouts in 42 innings who could rush into the D-Backs pen with Matt Mantei out a couple of months.
Cody Ransom, SS, San Francisco. It's hard to see him getting an opportunity with a proven All-Star shortstop in Rich Aurilia in place, but has some power, can field and made himself a big-league player.
Ricardo Aramboles, RHP, Cincinnati. Some of those Reds folks love this guy.
Eric Valent, OF, Philadelphia. He needs an opportunity, which might come if Lee gets traded and Pat Burrell goes to first.
Hee Seop Choi, 1B, Chicago.
OK, Pads reliever Jeremy Fikac isn't a rookie, and he's going to be a little behind in spring training. But did anyone notice that this changemaster pitched in 23 games for San Diego last season and left-handed batters were 0-for-27 against him? That's what one finds reading the STATS Inc. books on vacation.
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