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Will Furyk or Fowler win FedEx Cup?

The 2013-14 PGA Tour wrap-around season is down to one more event -- the Tour Championship at East Lake.

So will one of the top five in the FedEx Cup standings "control their own destiny" or might one golfer sneak in to snatch that $10 million prize?

Our scribes dive into those topics and more in the latest edition of Four-Ball.

1. Give us someone outside the top five "control your own destiny" group that could make some noise at East Lake.

ESPN.com senior golf analyst Michael Collins: Rickie Fowler. He's ninth in the points standings going into the final event, but look closely at his finishes since his last missed the cut at the Memorial: eight starts, worst finish T-23, six finishes T-9 or better. This will be his second start at East Lake, but his first start with his new Butch Harmon swing tweak.

ESPN.com senior golf writer Farrell Evans: Jim Furyk is an easy pick. In 2010, Furyk won the Tour Championship at East Lake to earn the playoff title. At seventh in the standings, he needs some help to take his second playoff crown, but with top-10s in three of his past four events, including a tie for fourth in the BMW Championship, he's been one of the hottest players of the past month.

ESPN.com senior golf writer Bob Harig: Jim Furyk. He's seventh in the standings, coming off another strong finish -- a tie for fourth at the BMW -- and poised to sneak in if somebody ahead of him falters. Furyk has also fared well at East Lake, winning the Tour Championship in 2010.

ESPN.com senior golf editor Kevin Maguire: Rickie Fowler. Realistically, going deeper than top 10 in the points list will be hard for someone to grab the $10 million this week at the Tour Championship, so Fowler at No. 9 fits the bill. He's posted top-10s in six of his past seven starts and done everything except win. Don't be shocked if he's raising two trophies on Sunday.


2. How is it possible for someone, in this case Billy Horschel, to overcome his finish a week ago and turn around to win the next week?

Collins: Same way it was possible for Kyle Stanley in 2012 to win the Waste Management Open the week after collapsing the final round at the Farmer's. Billy Horschel's comeback was actually easier because it was one bad swing at the wrong time, compared to a bad round. Guys at this level know when they're playing well and won't allow a bad swing to change that.

Evans: Players talk about the emotional toil of competing on the leaderboard. But this is the Super Bowl of the PGA Tour. If Horschel can't get up for this week in Atlanta, he's blown the biggest opportunity of his career. Still, generally, the week after a win is often prime time for a letdown for most players.

Harig: Horschel said he never let the bad shot bother him. Laughed it off. Acknowledged that they happen and wouldn't let it consume him. He took the positives out of his play and it showed at Cherry Hills.

Maguire: It's actually easier than it sounds, at least for elite-level golfers. (Easy being a relative term, of course.) The best players can put a bad shot behind them and turn around to make birdie the next hole. Well, that's basically what Horschel did at the BMW. He made a quad (relatively speaking) on the final hole in Boston last week, then posted an ace at the BMW. It's one of the many reasons the rest of us aren't out on tour and why he is.


3. In hindsight after this week's BMW Championship, how are you feeling about Tom Watson's captain's picks? Anything he might have done different if they were a week later?

Collins: I feel great. Because now Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley will practice together for two weeks while Rory McIlroy finds a hole at East Lake to four-putt. Seriously, though, the captain's picks finished T-53, T-59 and WD. I'm trying to stay positive, I just feel like Tom Watson went into a prevent defense with his picks. What does that prevent? Victory.

Evans: Off Watson's logic and criteria that he used to make his three picks, another week would not have mattered very much. By going off mostly past Ryder Cup experiences and match play performances, the U.S. captain could have made his picks after the PGA Championship, when the rest of the team was announced.

Harig: He might very well have considered Horschel. Not only has he gone 2-1 in the past two weeks, but his demeanor would seemingly be perfect for the Ryder Cup. Horschel gets fired up, and that can work well in such a setting.

Maguire: It's easy to say Billy Horschel should have made the team, but he'll be the first person to tell you that he didn't deserve a pick because he didn't earn his way there. That being said, it does bring up the point: Why are the picks made three weeks prior to the matches? The Bradley pick remains solid and I'm not too worried about Hunter Mahan despite his T-59 at Cherry Hills. Webb Simpson remains the question mark there instead of Chris Kirk, but Kirk bested Simpson by just one shot per round outside Denver, so that's basically a toss-up.


4. Fill in the blank: The biggest surprise in the field at the Tour Championship is______.

Collins: Dustin Johnson. Yeah, I know he's not technically "in the field" that's playing but THAT is the issue. Even with FIVE times the points available for three straight weeks, the guy who didn't tee it up once still qualified for the Tour's Super Bowl. What message does that send to the guys playing? SMH.

Evans: Geoff Ogilvy. The former U.S. Open champion went into the second playoff event in Boston 100th in the standings. Then a tie for second vaulted him to 25th, where he will start at East Lake.

Harig: Morgan Hoffmann by far. He started the FedEx Cup playoffs 124th. He was no guarantee to advance to even the Deutsche Bank, let alone Atlanta. He is just the third player in the history of the FedEx Cup playoff -- joining Heath Slocum in 2009 and Kevin Streelman in 2010 -- to advance to Atlanta after starting outside the top 100.

Maguire: Overall, eight players who opened the playoffs inside the top 30 fell out of that elite field, so there had to be some surprises. No one rose higher than Morgan Hoffmann, who began the playoffs at No. 124 with hardly a chance to make it to the second tournament, much less the finale. He'll start at East Lake in 21st place in the playoff standings, so a $10 million payday for winning the whole thing is next to impossible. Then again, even teeing it up in Atlanta would have seemed unlikely a month ago, too.