By Andy North
Special to ESPN Golf Online
Thursday, June 15
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. - The U.S. Open is a completely different animal than anything players see all year. It's always played somewhere where it's firmer, faster and harder.
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Andy's players to watch |
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When looking at favorites, everything begins with Tiger Woods. He is an amazing player and has proven that he can play on any course and in any conditions.
Below him are three groups of players who have a good shot this week.
The first group are the guys who have been playing well and are playing well heading into the Open. Phil Mickelson has a fabulous short game, has won three times this year and is ripe for a major. His game fits this course well.
Ernie Els loves the U.S. Open and hits the ball long and straight. Hal Sutton is a strong player and proved he can beat Tiger at the Players Championship. Davis Love III has contended often this year and has won a major, and David Duval is coming in on a roll after a great week at Westchester.
The next group of guys are players who have mental toughness or games that fit the Open. Justin Leonard drives the ball straight, is a gritty player and seems to elevate his game when the pressure is greatest. Jim Furyk is in the same category.
Colin Montgomerie is another guy whose game is perfect for the Open. He's won two times recently in Europe and, if he's putting well, could easily win this thing.
As far as darkhorses, Steve Stricker is a guy who jumps out at me because he brings his game to big events.
And don't forget the old guys. Jack Nicklaus, Hale Irwin, Tom Watson and Tom Kite all know how to manage a course, particularly this one, and there are a lot of major championships between them. Can they win? Probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them in contention as the week unfolds.
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The British Open is the closest thing in comparison, but the rough is completely different, and that's always a big part of the Open.
It takes a different mentality to win the U.S. Open. You have to be more patient, but most importantly you have to understand yourself as a player more than at any other event during the year.
The U.S. Open is not about making a lot of birdies and being flashy, it's about figuring out a way to score. And it doesn't have to be pretty. It's pretty difficult to think of any pretty rounds played by Open champions.
And at the end of the week, the Open champion is absolutely out of gas.
This year will be no different. When you think about Pebble Beach, your first thoughts are about the unbelievable photos ops. But Pebble Beach has some of the best holes you'll ever play.
Golf fans have no idea how small the greens are at Pebble. They are about half the size of the greens players normally see on tour. And when you combine that with the firmness, they become an adventure to hit.
I would guess that the player who wins this tournament will hit no more than 45 greens this week. That means the guy who wins is going to miss 27 greens during the week and still come out on top.
Under normal conditions like we've had during the practice rounds, you'd be happy to hit eight or nine greens in regulation during your round.
The key to success is to put your ball in the correct position. In many cases, you've got a better chance to save par when you're 20 feet off the front edge below the hole than you are 20 feet above the hole with a downhill putt.
Most courses the pros play, you want to know the yardage to the front of the green, to the flag and to the back edge. Here, you just want to know the front yardage.
When you look at Pebble Beach as an Open setup, you kind of divide the course into thirds. Walking off the sixth green, you've got to be even-par or better. The first six holes are the easiest stretch on the course, with genuine birdie opportunities on Nos. 1, 3, 4 and 6.
The next stretch, however, can be brutal. If you can get to the 13th tee in the same spot you left the sixth green, you'll be in great shape.
The real struggle comes on Nos. 8, 9 and 10. It's one of the most difficult stretches of golf all season. All par 4s and brutally long with tiny greens. Just to make par on those holes, you have to hit some fabulous shots, trying to hold long irons on greens not really capable of holding long irons.
In the past three Opens at Pebble Beach, the average score for the week on those three holes has been 5-over, meaning if you can go par-par-par-bogey on each of them, you'll be at least two shots ahead of the field.
Nos. 13-18 can be difficult, but not like the stretch before. No. 14, in particular, is probably the hardest par-5 I've seen where OB and water aren't factors. The green is almost impossible, and you don't ever want to be chipping downhill on that green.
Nos. 15 and 16 look pretty innocent, and you're not hitting much club to reach them. But both greens are very difficult to putt.
Then comes No. 17, simply an unbelievable par-3. Depending on the wind, guys will be hitting 3-woods and 2- and 3-irons to that green, which is a tiny target.
No. 18 is one of the prettiest holes you'll ever see, and it's not that difficult if you keep your wits about you and play it as a three-shot hole. But if you go for the green in two, that's when the ocean comes into play. And this year, playing it safe is more difficult because the fairway has been narrowed considerably.
The tournament probably will be lost in that middle stretch of holes if the conditions remain calm. But if the wind starts to blow, every single hole on the course can be a struggle. It's not a swirling wind, but it makes picking the right club to hit to a tiny green next to impossible.
Editor's note: ESPN analyst Andy North is a two-time U.S. Open champion. He will provide analysis of this year's event during each round at Pebble Beach.
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