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| Thursday, March 21 |
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| Kentucky Derby 128, from A to Z By Dave Johnson Special to ESPN.com | ||||||
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Every year at this time, I take a stab at each of the Kentucky Derby Future pools, sifting through the long list of Derby hopefuls, trying to find the 3-year-old who will wear roses on the first Saturday in May. It was during this process that I thought of an idea for a future Future Wager that might serve the fans better than the current set-up. Currently, each of the three pools of the Derby Future Wager is made up of 24 betting interests: 23 individual horses, and then the hundreds of others grouped together as "the field." So how about this? If we are indeed limited to 24 entries, let's assign one to each letter of the alphabet, with X, Y and Z grouped together as the last betting interest. The first letter of the Kentucky Derby winner's name determines the winners in the wager. Bet on the H if you like Harlan's Holiday. Put your money on C, if you think Came Home is the horse to beat. The beauty of this wager is that you could zero in on your choice, and at the same time get the other Derby starters whose name starts with the same first letter. Taking this approach, S is the most successful letter in Kentucky Derby history. There have been 16 Derby winners (and three Triple Crown champions) whose name started with the 19th letter of the alphabet: Spokane (1889), Sir Huon (1906), Stone Street (1908), Sir Barton (1919), Shut Out (1942), Swaps (1955), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Spectacular Bid (1979), Sunny's Halo (1983), Swale (1984), Spend A Buck (1985), Sunday Silence (1989), Strike the Gold (1991), Sea Hero (1993) and Silver Charm (1997). No Derby winner has ever had a name beginning with Q, X or Y, although Zev, victorious in the 1923 running, took care of Z. So, let's take that trip to alphabet city past the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs to see how this year's Derby contenders stack up. Azillion may be the most obscure of the Derby prospects on my list. But A is a tough letter this season. This Irish-bred raced in England last year. His third to Sunday break puts this Bob Hess trainee on my list. Buddha will have to be supplemented. But that's bound to happen after his almost 10-length tally in allowance company on the Florida Derby undercard. Came Home has done nothing wrong, and until he shows me he can't negotiate the longer distances, I'll keep him as the C to beat. Danthebluegrassman should have won the El Camino Real Derby, but his new jockey dropped his whip at the top of the stretch. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby before with less talented runners than this Dan. Ethan Man will show us more in the Lexington Stakes. His easy tally in the 7-furlong Swale for Byrne and Day makes him dangerous. Fonz's is the bargain of the current crop. Let's see what this $10,500 Florida bred does in the Santa Anita Derby for trainer David LaCroix. The G's look to be the longest shot in the alphabet. Doubt if any even make the starting gate on May 4. But I'll list Garrison Hill, only because of my admiration for owners Eugene and Laura Melnyk. Gene names all of his horses after locations in his native Barbados. Garrison Hill is where the island's racetrack is located. The Melnyks gave a million dollars for the Belmont Park backstretch day care center. They paid $560,000 for this son of Cozzene. I think the day care center will ultimately give them more satisfaction. Harlan's Holiday, the best Ohio-bred ever on the Triple Crown Trail, was the impressive victor of the Florida Derby. His devastating middle move was the most eye appealing performance this season. Prado's ready. The Is don't have it. At least, not this year. Iron Liege got the only win for this letter, but only because jockey Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line on Gallant Man in 1957. But, Imperial Gesture may get the Derby call for Godolphin, if none of their other high-priced stock make it to the old track on Central Avenue. Johannesburg has what it takes to win the roses. His preparation in Europe is definitely foreign to us, but let's see what last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champ does upon his return to action on April 6. He is scheduled to race on an all-weather track in England prior to USA assault. King's Consul cost $5.3 million as a Keeneland yearling. He won his debut last October at Belmont and is currently training in Dubai. Like A Hero overcame a slow start to finish an impressive second in his Santa Anita debut. What's next for this Beau Greeley trainee? Medaglia d'Oro was so impressive in San Felipe, I'll take him over Mayakovsky, whose erratic behavior in the Gotham stretch raises flags. Nokoma could be Todd Pletcher's best hope for a Derby berth. Ocean Sound is liable to pop up at right time in California. Perfect Drift jumps on this list because Murray Johnson talked Eddie Delahoussaye into riding this horse. That's enough for me. Quest Star, from the barn of Elliott Walden, is playing catch up. Repent needs Jerry Bailey. Millions in bonus money are also at stake. Saarland improves with every race. He's the best bred in the lot. Great foundation as a 2-year-old, but trainer Shug had some trouble finding him preps as a sophomore. It's time for jockey John Velazquez to step into the really big time. Tempera, even with the Dubai loss, may be Godolphin's fastest Derby hope. USS Tinosaproved he is a solid runner in the Sham, but needs a strong rider. Van Rougeis a classy gray homebred who can handle distance. He has a chance. Werblin looks like a miler to me, but must be given the chance to go the distance. Yougottawanna gives veteran trainer Jerry Hollendorfer his best shot. Now, if I was allowed only one letter to bet this year? It would be S hands down. With Saarland, Sunday Break, Siphonic, Saratoga Blues, Smooth Jazz and Stephentown, it could be an "all-S" Derby superfecta!
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