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| SPORT SECTIONS |
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Monday, July 31 Saturday picks By Bill Finley Special to ESPN.com |
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The Jockey Club Gold Cup
Our suspicions are that the Woodward was actually a weak race. Not only was the time (1:50 2/5) slow, the Beyer figure (105) unimpressive, but Gander, certainly no star, managed to finish within three-quarters of a length of winner Lemon Drop Kid. So we're going to try to beat the big horses coming out of the Woodward. That leaves three options, Agol Lack, Albert the Great and Vision and Verse. Agol Lack is badly outclassed and Vision and Verse was awful in the Meadowlands Cup, but Albert the Great is a live contender and our pick. After a great effort in the Travers, where he ran second despite racing on a dead rail in the stretch, he finished third behind Fusaichi Pegasus in the Jerome, but had a big excuse that day. Pressed through torrid fractions (:44 1/5, 1:08 1/5), he understandably folded in the stretch. He might face some early pressure here from Skimming, but he proved in the Travers he can rate off the pace if need be. It's hard to knock Lemon Drop Kid, our second pick. He's the most accomplished horse in the country and is 4-for-4 since trainer Scotty Schulhofer put on the blinkers. We just wonder if his last race is a sign that a long campaign is starting to get to him. Behrens missed by just a neck in the Woodward, where he showed he's not through after all. He just can't seem to beat Lemon Drop Kid. Skimming is probably better than he showed in the Woodward. He was given an odd ride that day by Garrett Gomez, who chose to take him just off the pace. The switch to Kent Desormeaux is a plus. Picks Summary: 1. Albert the Great 2. Lemon Drop Kid 3. Behrens
The Beldame
What a race. Riboletta vs. Beautiful Pleasure. It's going to be very hard to separate these two magnificent mares, arguably the two best in the country. We may be splitting hairs, but we'll go with Beautiful Pleasure because Riboletta may bounce off her huge win in the Ruffian. Riboletta was brilliant in that race, winning by 7 1/2 and getting an out-of-this-world speed figure. But did that race take a little out of her? Maybe. She's coming back in only three weeks. Meanwhile, Beautiful Pleasure has had a little break since winning the Aug. 25 Personal Ensign. Last year's Beldame winner, she always seems to run well at Belmont Park. No one else has a prayer. For those trifecta players, we'll pick Back in Shape for third. She picks up Jerry Bailey and managed to finish second behind Beautiful Pleasure and in front of Heritage of Gold in the Personal Ensign. Picks Summary: 1. Beautiful Pleasure 2. Riboletta 3. Back in Shape
The Three Chimneys Spinster
We'd like to try to beat Heritage of Gold, who will be odds-on and is coming off a dull performance in the Personal Ensign, but we just can't. Even if she fires less than her best shot, she's too good for the competition. In her favor, she has worked very well for her return and is probably better at a nine than the 10 furlongs she faced in the Personal Ensign. Too much class for this group. Plenty of Light stands the best shot of posting the upset. A top prospect this winter in Florida, she sat out five months and has slowly come around after the layoff. She ran a good second in the Gazelle and might improve again here as trainer Elliott Walden seems to have her on the right track. If Beautiful Pleasure and Heritage of Gold did not exist, Roza Robata would have had a very good year. She's been beaten by one or the other five times this year. Despite getting beat in the Gardenia at Ellis Park in her last, she is pretty consistent and is as likely as anyone to complete the exacta. Picks Summary: 1. Heritage of Gold 2. Plenty of Light 3. Roza Robata
The Frizette
This one kind of looks like a no-brainer. The lightly raced Dancinginmydreams closed like a wild horse in the Matron and nearly caught Raging Fever, who led by seven at the eighth-pole. She should improve with the experience and the extra sixteenth of a mile will be in her favor. A nice filly with a bright future. Raging Fever won the Matron, but didn't exactly shine in victory. She gets Lasix here, which could help, and appears to be as good as anyone else in the race. Can she go this far? Stormy Pick beat a poor bunch in the Spinaway, but did score a convincing two-length win. She is another with possible distance limitations, but handled the stretch out to seven furlongs just fine. Picks Summary: 1. Dancinginmydreams 2. Raging Fever 3. Stormy Pick
The Champagne
We'll go for some new blood in here. Saint Verre didn't show that much in the Hopeful but came back with an impressive allowance win Sept. 28 at Belmont, which looked like a perfect prep for this spot. This is the same colt who turned so many heads after his sensational debut at Philly Park. Has a lot of talent and may be ready for this prime time race. With a lot of speed in here, he may have to prove he can rate. AP Valentine is making a huge jump in class from a maiden win into a Grade I stakes, but he might be up to the task. Another talented prospect, he looked good breaking his maiden, has worked sensationally since and trainer Nick Zito has said the horse may be the best he's ever trained. Most Zito 2-year-olds tend to improve as the year goes on. Point Given is still another top 2-year-old from the loaded Bob Baffert barn. He didn't beat much in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, but he certainly did it the right way. City Zip has been a marvelous 2-year-old, but he struggled in the stretch of the Futurity, showing that he's passed his limits so far as distance goes. Note that Burning Roma, who was placed ahead of him via disqualification in the Futurity, was a non-threatening fourth in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. Don't expect much from him here. Yonaguska is another who appears to have distance limitations. Picks Summary: 1. Saint Verre 2. AP Valentine 3. Point Given
The Forest Hills Handicap
It's hard to go against Forest Camp. Coming off an eight-month layoff he returned with a bang to win the Pirates Bounty at Del Mar by four lengths. Facing off against a fairly weak group of competitors, he should have no problems as long as he runs back to that race. Delaware Township should fare better than he did in the Vosburgh, where he got off to a sluggish start. He gets a major rider switch from Joe Bravo to Pat Day and turns back to six furlongs, his preferred distance. A fast horse who could win it with a few breaks. Shadow Caster scored a huge upset in the Forego. That may have been a fluke, but if not, watch out. He beat a better field that day. We don't know quite what to do with Kelly Kip. At times the top sprinter in the country, he returns after a six-month layoff and has worked sharply. In a typically bizarre move from trainer Allen Jerkens, he switches from the red hot Jean-Luc Samyn to Raul Rojas, who is 1-for-44 at the meet. Picks Summary: 1. Forest Camp 2. Delaware Township 3. Shadow Caster
The Phoenix Breeders' Cup
What would a Phoenix Handicap be without Bet on Sunshine? Starting in the race for the fourth time in the last five years, the old pro should pick up the win. At 4-for-4 this year, he appears to be in the best form of his career and may be on target for a big run in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Just too good for these. Desert Air might sneak in to the money here at a decent price. He's coming off a win at Arlington, where he received a good speed figure and has been freshened for this. Also comes from a very capable barn in the Michael Stidham stable. Five Star Day was a big disappointment in his return to the races, losing a Del Mar allowance at 3-5. He didn't seem to have any fight that day, quitting badly in the stretch. We don't really like him that much here, but his speed makes him dangerous and there doesn't appear to be anyone to go after him early. Picks Summary: 1. Bet on Sunshine 2. Desert Air 3. Five Star Day
The Ancient Title Breeders' Cup Handicap
Elaborate ran a huge race in the July 9 Triple Bend, his first start in a sprint in nine months. In his next race he lost all chance when rearing at the start. It looks like he's very comfortable at this distance and can score a mild upset here. Kona Gold is no doubt the horse to beat. Arguably the best sprinter in the country, he is using this race as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. That's the problem. Trainer Bruce Headley went the exact same route last year and Kona Gold wasn't primed and was second in this race at 4-5. Might not fire his best shot here. Regal Thunder hasn't been out since the ë99 Breeders' Cup Sprint but comes from a great barn and might be ready for a big effort. Chilukki will take some money at the windows but the 3-year-old filly might find these tough older males a little too tough for her. Picks Summary: 1. Elaborate 2. Kona Gold 3. Regal Thunder
The Oak Tree Breeders' Cup Mile
Sharan might score an upset here. He's arguably the best closer in a race overloaded with speed and he's done some of his best running at a mile. Don't know what happened to him in the Eddie Read, where he was a non-threatening eighth after a slow start, but his race in the Shoemaker Mile behind Silic and Ladies Din was a big one and proved that he runs well fresh. If he runs back to that he can take this race. War Chant is the marquee horse since he competed in the Kentucky Derby. He's been off since then and has never run on the turf, so there are some unknowns here. You have to respect Neil Drysdale's ability to get them ready for a big turf race off dirt form. Remember Prized in the Breeders' Cup Turf? Irish Prize, another member of the Drysdale barn, could also benefit from a fast early pace. Seems to be improving. Picks Summary: 1. Sharan 2. War Chant 3. Irish Prize
The Hillsborough Handicap
Miss of Wales has been running against far better horses in Caffe Latte, Tout Charmant and Tranquility Lake and hasn't fared too badly against them. Stable has found a soft spot for her and she should get the job done. Beautiful Noise is another Southern California shipper who has run some big races at Del Mar. Gets Russell Baze for this and everyone knows what Russell Baze does in Northern California. Note that Baze took off Show Me Genius for main man Jerry Hollendorfer to ride this filly. Chime After Chime should be loose on the lead and will be extra dangerous if able to set a slow pace. Picks Summary: 1. Miss of Wales 2. Beautiful Noise 3. Chime After Chime  Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories |
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