How am I supposed to pick the Kentucky Derby if I can't figure out how the post positions are drawn?

I understand the premise of picking gate spots.

It's a good premise.

The premise is to put blind luck in its proper place, which is as an element and not the whole show. Blind luck picks the order in which people pick the post positions.

I came into this year's selection process a little late and don't get the following: Numbers are shaken at random from a bottle. These numbers are assigned to a horse and establish the order of the post position selection process. But how were the horses put in a particular order? The list of horses awaiting numbers seemed to start out alphabetically before becoming scrambled.

Here's how I get in the proper frame of mind to pick the Derby. First I got play a few dozen games of Keeno. And then I buy a handful of the scratch-and-weep lottery cards.

If there is a more difficult gamble than the Derby, I have yet to find it.

This is the way you make money at the horse races: You study and study and study and study and wait and wait and wait and wait and wait. It's like counting cards at blackjack. And then when the conditions are right, you take it to them on your terms.

The Derby is more like homework than handicapping - it's something you have to do.

The good side of this very tough race is $2 will get you plenty on the Trifecta.

Most so-called expert handicappers are afraid to play a long shot for fear of looking like an idiot. Most put a short horse on top. Most scatter immediately after the big race, the way refs do after a pro basketball game.

Here is the field in general, beginning with the inside post postion.

1. Songandaprayer - Will have only a song left by the first turn.
2. Millennium Wind - Figure seniors to tab one of their own at the windows.
3. Balto Star - Will run shortest distance.
4. Thunder Blitz - Sounds like old XFL promo.
5. Fifty Stars - Seen worse Tri fillers.
6. Express Tour - Trendy long shot. Redefines the term "shipper." Had to ship to a place from which to ship.
7. Arctic Boy - Overrated middle post spot a sandwich waiting to get stepped on.
8. Congaree - See above note. Jockey's first date at Derby.
9. A P Valentine - See that guy over there with the fake nose and beard? It's former Kentucky basketball coach Rick Pitino.
10. Dollar Bill - Will be over-bet with cowboy Day in the spurs.
11. Talk is Money - No comment.
12. Startac - Third horse with star in name.
13. Invisible Ink - Hung out to dry.
14. Keats - Poetry in motion for a half.
15. Jamacian Rum - Has solid designated driver.
16. Monarchos - Owner from my hometown, Tulsa.
17. Point Given - Sherman Tank. Off a month.

This figures to be one of the most entertaining Derbies, ever, primarily because of the rockets on the front end. Balto Star's strategy will be to run as far as it can, fast as it can, and hope the wire shows up before the competition does. Imagine what Pincay's knees must feel like at age 53. They figure to operate best up front as well.

Balto Star's speed duel is apt to be with himself.

If Congaree can do something with the eight-hole except get stuck halfway between here and there, he should be tactically perfect as he stalks the would-be thieves down the back side.

Express Tour will be somewhere in the middle, wondering what all the greenery is about.

Monarchos and Point Given will move toward the rail and save ground and will challenge Congaree at the top of the turn for home and see who has been running around lucky without even knowing it.

Trifecta tops: Point Given, Monarchos.

Trifecta middles: Point Given, Monarchos, Congaree,

Trifecta bottoms: Millennium Wind, Express Tour, A P Valentine, Fifty Stars.

Winner: Monarchos over Point Given.