Here are some numbers that may help you handicap the Derby: 16-13, 15-2, 16-18, 15-4, 16-14. It may surprise you to know that these are the post positions of the first two finishers in the 2001, 2000, 1999, 1996 and 1995 Derbys, respectively. With three winners coming from the 16 hole and two from post 15 in the past eight runnings, it's clear that being in the second gate doesn't doom you.

So don't read too much into which horses end up where at Wednesday night's draw (ESPN 5-6 p.m. ET). Where you start doesn't determine where you finish. What happens after the gates open is what matters, and nobody can predict who will get bumped, blocked or checked and when. Even if a horse is in form and bred to get the distance, a bad trip almost surely will cancel its chances. Remember Brocco, Holy Bull and General Challenge?

Last year the key to victory was waiting in front. Victor Espinoza nursed War Emblem on an uncontested lead through moderate fractions and never was caught. Derby winners Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) and Sea Hero (1993) enjoyed bubble trips when the holes opened just when they needed them and no one got in their way. Even the best horses can overcome only a little bit of trouble in what will be the most grueling effort of their lives.

Barclay Tagg will saddle the New York-bred gelding Funny Cide, and although it's Tagg's first Derby, he knows the drill well.

"You never know what's going to happen in the Kentucky Derby," he said. "I've never been to it, but I've watched an awful lot of them. And you never can tell how it's going to work."

Foreign Intrigue
Tony Farina, a 23-year-old Frenchman, has eight wins in 64 mounts since coming to California last year to ride for compatriot Patrick Biancone. Farina is a respectable 6-for-40 on the main track, although he has ridden in only four dirt races of 1 3/16 miles or longer, finishing out of the money every time. He's also never won a stakes in the United States. What are the odds he'll end those droughts on Brancusi in his first Derby ride?

"He's a good rider and he knows the horse," Biancone said of Farina, who will stay with the trainer for the Churchill Downs meet and accompany him to New York.

It's also the Derby debut for Biancone, who has won many Group I stakes in Europe and Hong Kong. The colt has only one win in seven starts but did hang on for second behind Peace Rules in a slow Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Although he has tactical speed and a distance pedigree (by Deputy Commander out of an Alysheba mare), not many people expect him to be a major factor on Saturday. Farina disagrees. "This horse is getting better all the time," he said. "I think he has a great chance to win the Derby."

Biancone also expressed confidence. "Everything's done,'' he said Tuesday. "We'll just take it easy now. He's ready. He's grand."

Rip 'Em Up, Eddie Boy
Every February Eddie Mac at the Track writes about the folly of playing the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, and every year I take a few shots in the dark. Do as I say, not as I do. Except for a $5 play at 17-1 odds on Monarchos two years ago, I've paid for going against my better judgment. This year's three stabs, at $10 apiece, came in the first pool, on Indy Dancer, Ministers Wild Cat and Ten Cents A Shine. At least I got good prices. If there's such a thing as worthless value, it was all me.

The first two won't be parading under the Twin Spires when they play "My Old Kentucky Home," and I have the feeling my 34-1 odds on Ten Cents A Shine will be far less than his price when the gates open. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has pulled off many miracles in the Triple Crown series, but I don't expect one with this struggling colt. I'm willing to sell the ticket on Ten Cents A Shine for 10 cents on the dollar, and I doubt if I'll get any takers.

After he finishes up the track, maybe I'll take the three worthless tickets, stick them in a Derby program and set it on fire before hurling it into the Ohio River. Perhaps this Viking burial will remind me of this mantra: There's no future in the long-term prediction business. Don't count on it.

Who Really Knows?
During Derby week, no matter whether their horse works 5 furlongs in 58 seconds or 1:05, trainers always say, "That was perfect. It was exactly what I wanted." After his colts Empire Maker and Peace Rules put in their final serious moves Sunday, Bobby Frankel told the truth and said, "I don't know if whatever happens is the right thing, anyway."

Empire Maker's bruised right front foot may have occurred during a universally praised 6-furlong move in 1:12 3/5, which proved for the millionth time that you never can tell.

Family Business
Craig Dollase and his father, Wally Dollase, have a chance at the first "all in the family" Oaks-Derby double in 51 years. Craig trains Elloluv, the likely Oaks favorite, and Wally has the rapidly improving Ten Most Wanted in the Derby. The last relatives to do it were Hall of Famers Ben Jones and his son, Jimmy, with Real Delight (Oaks) and Hill Gail in 1952. Ben Jones, who had a record six Derby winners, was listed as the trainer in '52 even though Jimmy was doing most of the hands-on work.

Celebrity watch
Perhaps because we have no royals to obsess over, Americans can't get enough of celebrity gossip. Where but America's Race can you overdose on sighting stars from show business and sports? Among the celebs expected to attend the Kentucky Derby are Janet Jackson, Kid Rock, Bo Derek, Julius Erving and Steven Spielberg, a part-owner of Derby runner Atswhatimtalknbout.