It's that time of the year. Time to get ambitious about post-season possibilities. Time to get single-minded about cutting down the nets. Time to get serious. Non-conference games will soon go the way of tinsel and tree ornaments. It's the time when the sun shines in the House of the Goat. And I don't mean Chris Webber.

Astrologically speaking, it's the time of Capricorn -- the sign that produces great leaders. Martin Luther King, Joan of Arc, Jesus Christ and uh, Richard Nixon? The thing you must remember about the ambitious, single-minded, serious Goats is that they crave respect and they'll do anything to attain it. But who among the top 10 teams will actually achieve it?

Once again, Michigan State is number one. The Spartans play great defense and they rebound like demons. But minus Cleaves, MoPete and A.J. Granger, Izzo's boys have trouble scoring. They won't win it all. Hey, Kentucky almost beat 'em.

Next up, Stanford. The Cardinal had enough to pull out a W against Duke. They're not as lumbering as they once were, but will they have enough consistent guard play to win it all? I say no.

The Blue Devils have the opposite problem. Their guard play -- Jason Williams in particular -- is stellar. But when your point guard is also your leading scorer, you're in trouble.

So who will win it? All I can say, as I look to the stars, is that it's going to be a shocker. Look at the rest of the top 10. Wake Forest? Get real. Florida? Not unless they play the entire tourney at home. Tennessee? Maybe if they clone Vincent Yarbrough. Kansas? I call history as my witness. Virginia? I could play center for them. (And I don't even play center for my shoddy office team.)

No, the team I'm picking at the season's midpoint is Illinois. The Illini have played everyone tough. They've got guys who can stick it from deep like Corey Bradford, and big fellas who can finish. I really like the bench: Archibald, Johnson and Harrington. Plus their coach, Bill Self, just celebrated a birthday (b. 12/27/62). It's going to be a good year for Caps.

John Gustafson writes college hoop for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at john.gustafson@espnmag.com.