COLUMBUS, Ohio – Fifty-fifty.

In my mind, those are the U.S. national team's chances of qualifying for the 2002 World Cup. It may look like the ultimate hedge, but when I look at the six teams battling for the three CONCACAF positions -- Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Trinidad and the U.S. -- 50-50 is what I'm left with.

I'm laying those odds out there today because, if for some reason the U.S. does not qualify for the next World Cup, you are going to read about the "shock" and the "shame." Not here. I'm just not sure the U.S. is one of the top three in CONCACAF this time around. We will start to learn Wednesday night at 7:30.

Wednesday, of course, is when the CONCACAF Hexagonal gets under way in Columbus, with the U.S. hosting Mexico. And surely you know how important every home qualifier is.

Every team in this region will expect to win its home games. And until the standings start to take shape over the next few months, road teams are going to be content to tie. Losses at home are going to seem catastrophic and road wins will look like historic triumphs.

So even though there will be nine more games for the U.S. to play in this round, you have every right to call this a "must-win" -- even if basic math says otherwise.

Expect the game on Wednesday to play out like a chess match. Mexico will not take any offensive chances and the U.S. will be cautious not to get caught on a counter. Translation: don't expect the camera to be panning from end to end too much. If you're thinking about telling a non-soccer-fan friend to tune in for the match, maybe you should tell him or her to watch the pre-game intros, get a look at all the nutty U.S. fans who will be yelling themselves silly, then switch back over to Temptation Island. I'm just trying to save you the unpleasant experience of having to listen to some dope complain about the lack of scoring. I'm not saying it's going to be a bad or boring game, but I don't expect it to be a highlight reel of goals either. It's a qualifier, for Pete's sake, not an exhibition.

Coach Bruce Arena is keeping the U.S. lineup top secret, but we expect a 4-4-2 that will look something like this: Brad Friedel in goal; David Regis, Jeff Agoos, Eddie Pope and Tony Sanneh from left to right in the back; Chris Armas in defensive midfield; Cobi Jones wide left; Claudio Reyna in the central attacking slot. Earnie Stewart wide right; Joe-Max Moore and Brian McBride up front.

Can that lineup produce a goal against what is expected to be a stacked-up Mexican midfield and defense? If yes, the Americans can go to Honduras next month and stick to the win at home, tie one the road formula. If not, the formula is altered.

And to think: we've got nine months of this ahead.

MLS West Questions

Ah, yes, still one MLS conference left to question -- the West. What do we want to know in the pre-season?

Kansas City:
Can Roy Lassiter still score?

He couldn't do it in Miami and the blame fell upon the Fusion's playmakers. Actually, it remains to be seen who's going to set up Rocket Roy in KC. We all know Lassiter's fast and can finish a chance with his left foot. But can he, like Miklos Molnar, get on the end of crosses, or score simply by outworking a defender? Also remember: the Wizards traded Chris Henderson to get Lassiter. Who's ready to fill Henderson's shoes on the left side of K.C.'s midfield? Overall, a pretty significant shakeup for the defending champs. Definitely worth watching.

Los Angeles:
Will Robin Fraser be a salary cap casualty, and can the Galaxy survive?

It appears Cobi Jones is staying put in L.A., which is good news for the Galaxy, but only to a point. With Cobi in, it all but assures that Robin Fraser, the classy captain, is going to be traded, most likely to Western foe Colorado. The Galaxy certainly showed they can put up a good defensive front without Fraser in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, but how much will Fraser's presence be missed over the course of a long season? The heaviest burden will fall on Greg Vanney, who will certainly move from the left into the center. Coach Sigi Schmid likes Vanney's passing talents out of that slot, but can he read a game and organize a defense like Fraser?

Colorado:
Who's responsible for a team's style?

All the propaganda coming out of Denver this winter says ex-coach Glenn Myernick is the reason why the Rapids played conservative soccer. So it will certainly be incumbent upon new boss Tim Hankinson to open things up. Hankinson said he's going to stress an "attacking mentality," but at what price? I don't see a lot of blazing speed in the Rapids defense, and I certainly don't see anyone like Chris Armas in their midfield. So if the forwards and midfielders are really hell-bent to move ahead, it's going to be interesting to see how the men behind them respond. Right now, I'd tell Adin Brown to be ready in the nets, because he's going to be tested.

San Jose:
Who's Going to Fill Those Last Two Allocation Spaces?

While new coach Frank Yallop has done a decent job of stockpiling solid pros like Jeff Agoos, Manny Lagos and Zak Ibsen, the real question for the Quakes is, can they find a star? They waited forever to sign foreign talent last year and got nothing. They won't want to make that mistake again. Of course, a lot of people expect Landon Donovan to end up in Silicon Valley and become one of the league's marquee talents. But let's not forget, he's 18 and unproven as a pro.

Jeff Bradley is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail jeff.bradley@espnmag.com.