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December 18, 2001
Preseason predictions a hit-or-miss affair
ESPN The Magazine

Our 2001 preseason predictions followed by postseason results and comments (in italics). . .

25.That you're going to need a beach towel to soak up the tears if San Jose State safety Neil Parry makes good on his vow to play football again.

Parry suffered a compound fracture of his right leg during the third quarter of last October's game against UTEP -- an injury so serious that doctors later had to amputate just below the knee. Parry has since been fitted with two prosthetic devices and reported with the team Aug. 9 for the beginning of fall practice. He has yet to take part in any contact drills, but Parry can move forward, backward and laterally well enough that a comeback at some point this season isn't out of the question. His goal: to return to special teams coverage, which is where he injured himself against UTEP.

And if Parry doesn't play, the next-best comeback will be June Jones' return to the Hawaii sidelines Sept. 8 against Montana. Jones was nearly killed in a Feb. 22 car accident that left him in critical condition.

Parry didn't play this season, though he dressed out for practice every day and traveled with San Jose State on every road trip. During games he stood on the sideline and kept charts for the defensive staff.

This weekend Parry underwent surgery to deal with bone spur growth just below his right knee. If all goes well -- and it should -- Parry says he hopes to participate in the Spartans' spring practice.

As for Hawaii's Jones, he led the Warriors to a 9-3 record, including victories against Fresno State and BYU. His run-and-shoot offense was fifth in scoring offense and seventh in total offense, and his quarterback Nick Rolovich had the same number of TD passes as Florida's Rex Grossman -- and he did it in two less games (Rolovich had an amazing 20 touchdown passes and 1,548 yards in his last three games). And yet, Hawaii stays home while 11 other mopes with 6-5 records are playing in bowl games.

Jones is disappointed by the mainland bowl snub, but if he learned anything from the near-death experience, it was perspective. For instance, he says he won't leave Hawaii for any other college job and would like nothing better than to have a contract extension done by early January. Only an NFL offer could lure him away from Honolulu.


24. That Rex Grossman will be the starting quarterback when preseason No. 1 Florida opens its schedule against Marshall.

Grossman will be the starting quarterback next season, and the season after that if he decides to stick around Gainesville for his senior year. He went from a shaky No. 1 (after all, you're only a Steve Spurrier visor throw away from being banished to the sideline) to a second-place finish in the Heisman Trophy balloting -- and the 2002 favorite to win the statuette.

So good is Grossman that junior-to-be Brock Berlin has asked for and been granted his release by Spurrier to transfer to another program. As recently as last spring Berlin was at least even with Grossman on the depth chart and might have actually been slightly ahead on potential -- even though Grossman started the final eight game of 2000 and was a first-team all-SEC choice.

Now he's a first-team all-America, which is why Berlin is dotting the i on his transfer papers.


23. That if one of the many Matts -- Matt Leach, Matt Piotrowicz and Northwestern transfer Matt Morton -- don't start punting better, Florida won't be No. 1 for long.

Florida's national championship hopes took a hit after the loss to Auburn and officially ended after the loss to Tennessee, but it wasn't Matt Leach's fault. The Gators only needed 26 punts from Leach all season and he responded with a nice 40.2 average.

22. That two of the best players in the best conference -- the Big 12 -- are named Roy Williams, and neither one plays for Kansas.

Roy Williams No. 1 plays wide receiver for Texas. Roy Williams No. 2 plays safety for defending national champion Oklahoma. Williams faces Williams Oct. 6 at the Cotton Bowl.

Nebraska's Eric Crouch won the Heisman, but OU's Williams got his share of deserved votes. And Texas' Williams was no slouch.

As for the Big 12 being the best conference. . .

Yes, the Big 12 finished with three teams in the top seven and four in the top 11 of the BCS standings (No. 2 Nebraska, No. 3 Colorado, No. 7 Texas, No. 11 Oklahoma), but there still are a too few many gimmes in the league, starting with Baylor (0-8, 3-8), Kansas (1-7, 3-8) and Missouri (3-5, 4-7).

The Pac-10 had two teams in the BCS top 10 and four in the top 15 (No. 4 Oregon, No. 9 Stanford, No. 12 Washington State and No. 15 Washington). Sure, Cal stunk it up and Arizona State, Arizona and Oregon State were 4-7, 5-6 and 5-6, respectively, but we'll still take the Pac-10 over the Big 12 this season by the slightest of margins.

Only two bowl games feature Big 12 vs. Pac-10: Colorado vs. Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl (otherwise known as National Championship Jr.) and Texas vs. Washington in the Holiday Bowl.


21. That Ohio State strong safety Mike Doss will hit someone so hard this season that their jersey numbers will fall off. Doss led the Buckeyes in tackles last season, including 16 in the John Cooper-killing loss to Michigan.

Doss became the 29th player in Ohio State history to be named to consecutive all-America teams. The junior led the Buckeyes in tackles, tackles for losses, fumble recoveries and also had two sacks, three interceptions, four pass breakups and two blocked kicks. The school doesn't keep statistics for Bells Rung, Snot Bubbles Caused, or Smelling Salts Capsules Snapped.

20. That nobody will play a tougher schedule this season than Notre Dame. This is the kind of schedule that puts hair on your chest. . . and bitchy alums on your back.

As ND honk Dickie V. would say, "Are you kidding me?" The schedule of doom (last season's record in parenthesis): at Nebraska (10-2), at Purdue (8-4), Michigan State (5-6), at Texas A&M (7-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), West Virginia (7-5), USC (5-7), at Boston College (7-5), Tennessee (8-4), Navy (1-10), at Stanford (5-6), at Rose Bowl and BCS championship game if the Irish somehow worm their way through those 11 games.

Runner-up in the Death March contest: Troy State, a transitional Division I-A member, which plays at Nebraska, at Middle Tennessee State (better than you realize), at Miami (the Florida kind), at Mississippi State, at Maryland.

Winner of the "Whew, did we luck out" scheduling award: Texas, which doesn't play Nebraska or Kansas State during the regular season.

Now former ND coach Bob Davie can tell you all about the Irish's schedule. We don't care what the NCAA computer says about Notre Dame's opponent lineup (only 21st toughest, according to their calculations), no coach would want to face nine bowl teams in 11 games, as the Irish did this season. And if he did, he wouldn't want to open the year with two road trips in the first three games (it would have been three out of four if the Sept. 15 game hadn't been switched).

The new guy (to replace the other new guy who replaced the old guy) gets a nice welcome in 2002: Purdue, Michigan, at Michigan State, Stanford, Pittsburgh, at Air Force, at Florida State, Boston College, Navy, Rutgers, at USC.

Schedule aside, if the Irish don't start scoring some points (five games of 18 or fewer points, no games higher than 28 points), they're going to have to change the famous mural's name to "Field Goal Jesus."

Meanwhile, Troy State and coach Larry Blakeney should be proud of a 7-4 record that included victories at Mississippi State and against bowl-bound (cough, cough) North Texas. Troy State also held its own against Nebraska and Miami.

And Texas? Even without the Huskers and Wildcats on the schedule, the Longhorns were unable to beat Oklahoma during the regular season, or Colorado in the Big 12 Championship.


19. That Bevo would need a truss to carry Texas' 568-page media guide.

In review: the New York Yankees have won 26 world championships and their media guide is 352 pages. The Longhorns have won two outright national titles and shared another, and yet you need a forklift to carry the thing. And good thing the Longhorns' sports information department doesn't design the Holy Bible, or else you'd have a photo of Mack Brown on almost every page -- just like this year's guide.

Texas's postseason guide is a more manageable 120 pages or so.

18. That even with the latest tweaking of the the BCS formula (minimizing margin of victory, rewarding teams for strength of schedule, tinkering with the lineup of computer polls), something will happen during the course of the season to create controversy -- not that it will matter. The BCS system runs through the 2006 bowl games and, according to John Swofford, the BCS coordinator and Atlantic Coast Conference commissioner, university presidents and ACC elite players aren't in favor of a playoff system.

But here's the rub: some coaches (see, Oklahoma's Bob Stoops) argue that the leagues with conference championships are put at a disadvantage because of the extra game at regular season's end. He's right. . . and wrong.

It would be nice if every major conference had a championship game, but that means the Big Ten, the ACC, the Pac-10 and the Big East would have to find religion. And what happens if independent Notre Dame becomes a serious national player again? Since the BCS started in 1998, two of the last three national champions (Tennessee in '98, OU in '00) played in conference championship games. The Big 12 gets a fat check for more than $8 million because of its league championship, so don't look for those money-makers to go away anytime soon. Sorry, Bob.

All those who thought Colorado would crush Nebraska, and Tennessee would beat Florida at Gainesville, and Oklahoma would lose to Oklahoma State, and LSU would beat Tennessee, and Texas would lose to CU, please report to your local MENSA recruiter.

The BCS is 4 years old going on 50, what with back-to-back years of standings controversy. Last season it was the Miami debate. This season it's the Nebraska-Oregon-Colorado argument.

Poor Swofford became the punching bag for all BCS critics, but it's not his fault the university presidents won't sign off on a playoff system. Still, it looks like the BCS fellas are going to have to tweak the formula -- again -- during the offseason. That could mean extending the bonus scale from 15 teams to perhaps 20 or 25, or maybe rewarding a conference champion bonus points. (Editorial aside: make the coaches publicly accountable for their poll votes. Wouldn't you love to see who switched from Nebraska to Colorado in the final poll? The AP voters are accountable, why not the coaches?)

Whatever they do, it won't guarantee BCS peace, love and understanding. The system is far from perfect, but it didn't deserve to be likened to a cancer, as Oregon's Mike Bellotti compared it. And CU's Gary Barnett looked as if he'd swallowed a heaping helping of garlic tofu when he saw the Buffs had missed out on the Rose Bowl by five-hundredths of a point. Of course, someone needs to remind Barnett that last year's changes to the BCS formula gave CU 2.3 extra bonus points, pushing it past Oregon in the standings which, by the way, has one fewer loss than the Buffs.

And then there's the conference championship issue. If not for the loss to CU in Dallas, Texas would probably be in the Rose Bowl, not Nebraska. If not Texas, it might have been Tennessee (before its loss to LSU in the SEC championship).


17. That the Big Ten, Georgia Tech, UCLA, Louisville, Auburn, East Carolina, San Jose State, Texas Tech, Alabama and Toledo are underrated, and Oregon State, Washington, LSU, and Nebraska are overrated.

This is what happens when you have one too many Presidentes at the local Chili's. You grow bold. You become emotional. Neurons misfire.

The Big Ten wasn't underrated. It was right where it should have been rated -- a proud conference ready to have a so-so year. And those people were right: only Illinois cracked the top 15 of the BCS standings. There were no gimme wins in the league, but let's face it, there weren't any ESPN Classic teams in it, either.

Louisville won 10 games. Bowl-bound Texas Tech continues to get better with coach Mike Leach. Toledo (9-2) was a gas to watch. Auburn beat No. 1 Florida. The other supposed underrateds? The less said, the better.

Oregon State (5-6) won two of its last three or else it would have retired the Overrated Trophy. Washington finished 8-3, but lost by 58 to Miami and prompted a mini-controversy (Did Washington AD Barbara Hedges shake Miami AD Paul Dee's hand after the game, or didn't she?).

LSU recovered nicely from a 3-3 start to finish in a BCS bowl, so we screwed that one up. Nebraska didn't win its conference or even its division (looking good for us), but somehow winds up in the BCS Championship (not looking good for us).


16. That the Beaver and Husker Nations aren't going to like No. 17.

You don't hear much from Oregon State followers these days. Meanwhile, Nebraska fans are always e-mail ready.

15. That our 10 most intriguing early season games are: Sept. 1 -- Miami at Penn State (the JoePa Countdown begins); Wisconsin at Oregon (Badgers get a week's head start with game against Virginia. If they beat the Cavaliers at Madison, Oregon will have problems); Sept. 7 -- Northwestern at UNLV (How will will the Wildcats regroup vs. Vegas quarterback Jason Thomas?); Sept. 8 -- Notre Dame at Nebraska (Could be as good as last season's 27-24 NU thriller); North Carolina at Texas; Sept. 13 -- Penn State at Virginia (If Joe Pa beats Miami, this one will be for Bear Bryant's record); Sept. 14 -- Colorado State at UNLV (No, this isn't a typo); Sept. 15 -- Tennessee at Florida (Can Spurrier mess with Phillip Fulmer's mind. . . Can Vols' DE John Henderson mess with Grossman/Berlin's limbs?); Georgia Tech at Florida State (If Tech can beat FSU. . . can you say possible Rose Bowl?); Louisville at Illinois (Dave Ragone vs. Kurt Kittner).

Only Tennessee-Florida lived up to the preseason hype.

Otherwise, these were the most compelling games of the season (our apologies if we miss one or two): the 7 overtime-fest between Arkansas and Ole Miss; Army-Navy; Auburn's upset of Florida; JoePa's record-breaking win against Ohio State; Stanford over Oregon; Virginia Tech's near upset of Miami; Fresno State's consecutive wins against Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin; Maryland's win at North Carolina State; Georgia's comeback win against Tennessee; Colorado's scorched-earth policy against Nebraska; Michigan State's timer-aided win against Michigan; Rice's comeback win against Hawaii; Hawaii's rout of BYU; BYU's comeback wins against Mississippi State and Utah; Nebraska's win against Oklahoma; South Florida's upset against Pittsburgh; Toledo's comeback win against Marshall.


14. That five players will be sitting in the Downtown Athletic Club come time to pick a Heisman Trophy winner: Nebraska's Eric Crouch, Oregon State's Ken Simonton, Northwestern's Damien Anderson, Clemson's Woodrow Dantzler and UCLA's DeShaun Foster.

Who knew they wouldn't be at the DAC? Or that Simonton and Anderson would flame out, that Dantzler would be done in by a 6-5 team, that Foster would forget about that annoying NCAA "extra benefits" rule?

So we wound up 1 for 5, but at least we got the winner.


13. That we can't wait to see how Glen Mason reacts if his Minnesota team somehow beat visiting Ohio State Nov. 3.

Mason, a former Buckeye player and assistant coach, thought he was the heir obvious when Ohio State canned John Cooper last season. Instead, OSU athletic director Andy Geiger hired Jim Tressel of D-IAA Youngstown State, which meant Mason had some explaining to do in Minneapolis. For starters, he said he was done interviewing for jobs (he flirted with openings at LSU at Michigan State in the past). Of course, if he really wants to make nice with the Golden Gopher faithful, he'll figure out a way to finish above .500.

It almost happened. Ohio State 31, Minnesota 28.

12. That the best line of the preseason came during the Big Ten media kickoff in Chicago. Asked by David Jones of the Harrisburg Patriot-News if he would consider retirement after passing Bear Bryant in total wins, Paterno said, "The only retirement I've thought about is yours, and I can't wait."

Paterno, who turns 75 on Dec. 21, is so out, he's in. Those rolled khakis? The Gap ought to do a commercial with him.

11. That new Alabama coach Dennis Franchione owes former Crimson Tide coach Bill Curry a thank you note. Curry, the first Bama coach not from the Bear Bryant coaching tree, was never embraced by Tide faithful. Franchione, another "outsider," will get the benefit of the doubt, thanks in part to the silliness Curry endured at Tuscaloosa.

Franchione finished 6-5, got the Tide to a bowl (sort of -- The Independence Bowl), and beat Auburn at Auburn. The toughest opponent is still to come: NCAA sanctions.

10. That we'll bet USA Today's oddsmaker Danny Sheridan a dollar that Oregon or Oregon State (1,000: 1) will get closer to a national championship than Virginia Tech (25:1).

Still waiting for the buck, Danny.

9. That if we could hire a mid-D-IA coach to fix a major program it would be Southern Mississippi's Jeff Bower or East Carolina's Steve Logan.

We'll stick by this one and a few other names to the list of up and comers: Troy State's Blakeney, Louisiana Tech's Jack Bicknell, Louisville's John L. Smith, and Central Florida's Mike Kruczek.

8. That by season's end you'll know all about Tennessee quarterback/wide receiver Kelley Washington, Auburn running back Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, Hawaii quarterback Timmy Chang and Virginia Tech running back Kevin Jones.

Washington, a freshman who had never played wide receiver, turned out to be one of the best WRs in the SEC. The freshman Williams was beginning to establish himself as a force until he was sidelined by a late-season injury. Chang hurt his wrist early in the season and is expected to receive a medical redshirt. And the freshman Jones proved why he was one of the nation's top recruits a year ago.

7. That the toughest player to tackle in the SEC is none other than Kentucky quarterback Jared Lorenzen. This observation comes courtesy of Ole Miss defensive back Syniker Taylor, a preseason second-team All-SEC selection.

The former porker Lorenzen lost his starting job, then regained it, then kicked a little butt. Even though he dropped some pounds, Lorenzen and perhaps LSU's Rohan Davey were the two most difficult SEC quarterbacks to bring down.

6. That we wouldn't want to be Mack Brown if quarterback Chris Simms struggles early in the season. Simms has the pedigree and arm, but there are coaches in the Big 12 who still believe Major Applewhite is the better quarterback.

Brown almost made it through the whole season without a quarterback controversy. Simms struggled in the loss against OU, but he wasn't the only one. What really prompted the fan unrest was Simms' performance in the Big 12 Championship against CU. Brown replaced him with Applewhite and will keep Applewhite in the starting position for the Holiday Bowl game against Washington.

5. That we'll never understand why Southern Cal insists on being called Southern California, or why Central Florida wants to be known as UCF. Seriously, UCF? That's either the University of California-Fresno, or a surgical procedure.

Whatever you call them, they combined for a 12-10 record.

4. That Kansas' Terry Allen, Indiana's Cam Cameron, Utah's Ron McBride, Vanderbilt's Woody Widenhofer and Franchione (sorry, habit at Bama) might want to have winning seasons.

Allen, Cameron and Widenhofer were a combined 10-23. McBride salvaged things with a 7-4 season.

3. That former Arizona State defensive coordinator Phil Snow will make a significant difference at UCLA, and former North Carolina State offensive coordinator Norm Chow will do the same at crosstown Southern Cal (damn, forgot).

Snow made a difference, all right: the Bruins held opponents to 21 or fewer points eight times. Too bad he couldn't have driven Foster around town. And Chow had the Trojans semi-cooking by mid-to-season's end: 27 against UCLA, 42 against Arizona State, 41 against Arizona, 55 against California.

2. That Indiana's favorite play should be, "Throw it to No. 11."

No. 11 is Antwaan Randle El, who will spend time at wide receiver, as well quarterback. Is it a good thing when your best quarterback and wide receiver might be the same guy?

The grand experiment didn't last long. Randle El returned to QB fulltime and the Hoosiers eventually returned to semi-respectability, winning four of their last five games. If there would have been a fourth spot on our Heisman ballot, Randle El would have been on it.

1. That the safe bet would be a Florida-Oregon or Florida-Miami Rose Bowl. But that's no fun. Our longshot pick: UCLA beats Georgia Tech on its home field for the national championship.

To hell with safe -- we still would have been wrong with the Gators-Ducks pick. We were looking like geniuses early in the season as UCLA started 6-0 and Georgia Tech clicked off three early wins. But QBs and SUVs buried the Bruins, and the Techies spun in against Clemson and then for good against Maryland.

But just for old time's sake: Miami beats Nebraska, 28-27, for the national championship.


Gene Wojciechowski is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine. Movers and Shakers appears each Sunday during the college football season. E-mail him at gene.wojciechowski@espnmag.com.



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