The Magazine's Neil Reed knows what it feels like to get bitten by an underdog. Here, he explains how upsets can happen this week at the Dance.

I winced a little for the Tar Heels on Sunday. I've been there. Back in '97, Chauncey Billups rattled off 20 points in the opening 10 minutes of Indiana's first-round loss to Colorado. When we prepared for the game, we were incapable of simulating his size, quickness and skills.

Along the same lines, I don't think anyone -- not even Michigan State -- can adequately prep for Temple's match-up zone, especially with the bottom half of your roster playing the part in practice.

First shots are more essential than you think. They really do set the tone for the game, good or bad. Look at what Butler did to Wake Forest. Hot hands can carry teams (remember Harold Arceneaux? Glen Rice?) Cold hands (Terence Morris) can bury them.

A player's mental approach to tourney games is incredibly unpredictable -- take Loren Woods, for example. Adrenaline pumping through your veins sometimes replaces the oxygen meant for your brain. This drives coaches crazy -- trust me.

One more thing: stay outta foul trouble! Cheerleaders can't win games.

East

If you're up against Kentucky, you have to make Saul Smith shoot the ball. His defender should really pay attention to help-side D and even double Keith Bogans if needed. USC's weapon of choice is Jeff Trepagnier. His ability to play above the rim creates all kinds of opportunities to win games. Duke is pretty much unstoppable, sorry to say. But the Blue Devils can make quick work of the Bruins by fouling Dan Gadzuric out of the game. With no inside play, Jason Kapono can't get clean looks and Earl Watson is forced to create more than he's able.

West

Stanford is methodical. Teams have to be aggressive, pushing the ball up the floor and dictating tempo. Go right at the Collins twins -- foul trouble is key. This really is a perfect match for Cincinnati. The Bearcats rely on their athletes to disrupt every play with long arms and quick feet. Unfortunately, Kenny Satterfield and Steve Logan are the Bearcats' only offense. As for the D.C. Duel, a good point guard has to be able to recognize and adjust to Maryland's changing defenses. If Georgetown's Kevin Braswell has the right amount of court sense, Terp traps will equal easy baskets. The Hoyas like to use their size and athletic ability to make life miserable for opponents. The crazier the game (Arkansas), the better chance they have at winning. And this one should be wild.

South

Michigan State depends on the first five minutes of each half to stun its opponents. If Gonzaga can withstand the attack, they will be in this game 'til the end. But the Zags will have trouble matching-up with the size and speed of MSU. Penn State has to attack Temple's match-up zone by (1) penetrating its gaps, (2) dribbling the ball in one direction and then passing to another, and (3) finding shots in the short corners (the area between the foul lane and the sideline, on the baseline). If you make baskets against this zone (Wisconsin), you can win. Joe Crispin sometimes feels he has to carry the team, which can do more harm than good.

Midwest

Although Illinois is a very aggressive team, they aren't a big team. A solid inside presence can cause serious problems for the Illini. And Kansas has that presence in Nick Collison, Drew Gooden and Eric Chenowith. But the Jayhawks will have to be more patient on offense than usual. Time of possession will be very important in this game. Taking a look at Ole Miss vs. Arizona, the Rebels' Rahim Lockhart isn't that tall (6'8") but he's definitely wide (255 pounds). Unfortunately, he's been the team's only fire power. If Zona locks down on him, the Rebs are done. But the Wildcats will have to take care of the ball against Ole Miss's smothering D.

Neil Reed covers college basketball for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at neil.b.reed@espnmag.com.