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| Monday, July 28 Updated: July 29, 10:04 AM ET Baker's Dozen: The week in preview By Jim Baker ESPN Insider |
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1. The Best Matchup of the Week It's an odd-numbered year so you know what that means: time for the Astros to line up for their bi-annual humiliation at the hands of the Braves in the first round of the postseason. If things stay as they are now, the Astros and Braves will collide again in the first round where Houston was dispatched by Atlanta with a total of one victory in 1997, 1999 and 2001.
Can this be avoided again? There is a scenario that would allow the Astros to dodge the Braves: If a team out of the Western Division can come away with the Wild Card (I capitalize it much as I would the name of a deity out of shameless respect for the institution), then the Braves would draw that team in the first round, allowing Jeff Kent to meet up with his old chums in the first round. The players can protest all they want to the contrary, but you know darn well that the Astros do not wish to face the Braves again come October.
2. The Match to the Powder Matchup of the Week What happens when a team with the highest slugging average in history meets a team with an ERA over 6.00? We're fixin' to find out, I tell you what. (Sorry. I shouldn't really write things like "fixin'" and "I tell you what." I don't really have the right to talk in the jargon of my adopted state. I was wondering at what point -- if ever -- I will, though. Will I have earned the right to buy a pair of cowboy boots and say "might could" instead of just "might" or "could" after 10 years of residency? Considering that I never used the jargon of my actual home state, this all might could be moot.) The interesting thing about the Rangers is that, as bad as their pitching is and has been for the past four seasons, it wasn't all that spectacular even in 1998 and 1999 when they won their division. In those two years, the pitchers managed ERAs of just 5.00 and 5.07. Those figures don't appear to be too entirely different than the 5.52, 5.71 and 5.15 they have registered in the three years previous to this, however. When the Rangers won their division with those plus-five ERAs, things were a lot softer out west. Winning 100 games was not a requisite for nailing the division -- much as it is now with the ascension of the Mariners and A's. Also, the league average ERA was a bit higher. The Rangers are in their 10th year at the Ballpark at Arlington and have managed to better the league ERA just twice in that time: 1995 and 1996. So, unlike the Rockies in Coors Field who have never come close to bettering the league ERA, we know that it is at least possible for the Rangers to do so. Unfortunately, they have moved further from that mark than ever. This year's staff is 1.5 runs worse than the league ERA, worse than 1998's previous high. Facing the Red Sox this week can only make it worse, unless R.A. Dickey (5.09), Robert Ellis (18.00) and Colby Lewis (8.33 and pitching against Pedro Martinez in one of the less sporting propositions of the year) can rise to the occasion.
3. The Direct Competition Matchup of the Week In addition to racking up one of the best stolen base percentages in the annals of base thievery (30 for 31 so far to go with the 31 for 32 he managed two years ago), Carlos Beltran has added another wrinkle to his game: walking. Here is the improvement he has shown in his career on the basis of plate appearances per walk:
1999: 15.7 Getting back to the swipes, his career stolen base success rate is now nearly 90 percent. If he can keep this up through his prime, there may come a day that he will be able to combine speed with experience and have a perfect season in this department. When you look at players like Davey Lopes and Joe Morgan, they cut down on getting caught as they got older, albeit with fewer attempts. One can see Beltran following this pattern in his 30s and going two or three years without getting caught while getting 50 or 60 total steals in the process.
4. The Extreme Opposite Polarized Contrarian Matchup of the Week The combined score of the Dodgers' last four games is 3-3, or, just two runs above the minimum required to actually call them games. On the other extreme, the combined score of the Phillies' last four games through Sunday was 30-34. So, brave soul, how do you figure they will reckon with one another this week?
5. The Most Interesting Pitching Matchup of the Week
Note: Baker's Dozen is not responsible if fate or team management intercedes to make it so these two do not face one another. What if Randy Johnson's career had somehow gotten off to a different start? What if he had hit the ground running the way that Dontrelle Willis has? As you know, Johnson did not reach the majors until he was 24 and really didn't get rolling until two years later. It was another three seasons before he got the walk thing under control, taking his game to the next level. Since then, it's been a decade of nightmares for hitters. In spite of the slow start, Johnson is a lock for the Hall of Fame, but it is fun to speculate how many wins he might have by now if he had made a Dontrelle-like splash on the major league scene at 21 or 22 years old. I wouldn't go so far to say he would already be at 300, but he'd probably be half-way between there and the 225 he has now.
6. The Biggest Mismatchup of the Week I had the pleasure of attending Saturday night's game at Comerica Park in which the Tigers dispatched the Royals 5-1. Owing to geography and the quick-working style of Jeremy Bonderman, I had the unique experience of watching a complete night game and leaving the stadium while there was still light in the sky. Detroit sits on the western-most edge of the Eastern Time Zone and, therefore, sees the sun go down later than those further east or to the west do. Bonderman -- God bless him -- gets the ball back from the catcher, gets his sign and throws the next pitch. If baseball is serious about trimming time from games, let's use Bonderman as the threshold. Every pitcher who enters the league from this point forward must work as fast or faster than he does. Those who preceded him will be grandfathered. Since Bonderman is only 20, it will take a few years for this to take effect, but it will definitely help the situation. A couple of other notes from the game:
7. The Friendly Confines, My Eye Matchup of the Week The Cubs are in the minority of teams who have played better on the road than they have at home. (Four of the six NL Central Division teams are on this list: coincidence or conspiracy?)
Milwaukee: 5 games better If this continues for the Cubs, it will mark only the 12th time since they moved into Wrigley Field in 1916 that they played better on the road (well, 11th, one year -- 1957 -- was a tie). Just for fun, below on the left is a list of the years in which the Cubs had better away records than home. On the right is a list of hit songs and the performers that made them famous. Match the song with the year in which it was popularized.
8. The Invite Me Over and Beat Me Matchup of the Week Predictably, the opposite is true of the Rockies. Once again, they have a vastly superior record at home than they do on the road -- the biggest in baseball. Here are the teams with the five largest home/road splits:
Colorado: 21 games better
9. The Our Men in the Hall Matchup of the Week Sunday's Hall of Fame inductees Gary Carter and Eddie Murray were teammates for one year. Both were with the Dodgers in 1991. How rare is it for teammates to go into the Hall of Fame together? Not especially, as this list of teammate co-inductees from the last 30 years proves:
2003: Eddie Murray/Gary Carter: 1991 Los Angeles Dodgers Of these pairings, only two were not of the ships-passing-in-the-night variety: Reese-Drysdale and Mantle-Ford.
10. The 2000 ALDS Rematchup of the Week How has one of baseball's rarest swaps worked out? Which team -- to this point -- has "won" the Lou Piniella for Randy Winn trade? The Devil Rays finished with a .342 winning percentage last year and you would have to think that just about any manager could have improved on a mess like that. Piniella has them playing at a .359 clip, good for a two-game improvement if that keeps up, but nowhere near the expectation of keeping them away from their third-consecutive 100-loss season as was hoped he would. Winn had a nice season in 2002, a year in which he was by far and away the Rays best performer. His production has fallen this year, perhaps by as much as a third. In his defense, he has gone from a park that helped him to a park that hinders him. His road numbers are better this year after having the opposite hold true while toiling at Tropicana Field. Even with that, though, he has not lived up to expectations. To this point, I'd call the trade a wash -- a bad wash for both teams; apples to oranges though it may be.
11. The Borrowed Anthem Matchup of the Week I recently attended a ballgame in which the singer made five lyrical mistakes while singing our National Anthem. I won't mention where this was because my intent is not to show up any one individual but to show pity on the entire singing community as a whole. Let's face it, The Star Bangled Banner is a stone difficult one to sing and, even when done right, it is not an especially great song. On the other hand, everybody loves O Canada, right? It's short. It's got a nice melody. It makes its point and then lets the listener get on with their lives. Here are the lyrics:
O Canada! See? Direct and to the point. So, here's my idea: why doesn't the United States buy the rights to O Canada from Canada and adopt it as our own National Anthem? I'm not talking about stealing the melody like we did for My Country Tis of Thee, I'm talking about throwing some serious money at the Canadians for their wonderful song. With only a few adjustments (like going PC with the "sons" thing), it works perfectly. The wonderful coincidence is that the line O Can-a-da fits the new lyric perfectly in terms of the meter:
A-mer-i-ca! Wouldn't baseball games be more palatable if we did this? You bet they would.
12. The Mystery Matchup of the Week These two teams are linked by a trade involving a player who improbably went on to a job in the media after his playing days ended. More famous as a member of the home team than of the visitors, he hit exactly 100 career home runs. Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com. |
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