The first three weeks of the season are not nearly enough time in which to begin drawing conclusions about anything. Nevertheless, we've already seen the the Devil Rays fire their manager, the Yankees go through fifth starters like Anne Robinson goes through stupid people, and a near frenzy over the Twins' hot start.
We know nothing yet. Over a three-week period, any team in baseball can look like champs or chumps. Remember the Yankees in September of last season? The Expos were 14-9 in April last year, 53-86 after. Any pitcher can look like Christy Mathewson in three starts, and any player can hit like Babe Ruth in 60 at-bats. Don't believe me? Here are some of the hitters who were struck by lightning in April, 2000:
|
Player
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
AB
|
|
Derek Bell
|
.385
|
.444
|
.567
|
104
|
|
R. Gutierrez
|
.355
|
.415
|
.559
|
93
|
|
Mike Matheny
|
.313
|
.397
|
.463
|
67
|
|
Eric Owens
|
.375
|
.423
|
.458
|
96
|
Those of you rushing to grab Bret Boone in your fantasy leagues are duly warned.
If players' performances can be all over the map, we can expect teams to be as well. One of the ways we can check a team's performance, though, is by looking at its runs scored and runs allowed. Those are the best indicators of team quality, for one, and it's been established that the relationship between the two is a solid predictor of a team's record. That relationship, often called "Pythagorean," can be expressed as:
Runs Scored^2 / (Runs Scored^2) + (Runs Allowed^2)
The gap between a team's actual record and their Pythagorean record is generally ascribed to luck, no matter how much you may read about it being because a team is scrappy or has a lot of heart or intestinal fortitude or other internal-organ-related attributes. Even over the course of a season, luck does not even out, which is how the 1987 Twins can make the playoffs or batting averages can rise or fall 80 points from season to season or Bill Gullickson can win 20 games.
Within a season, we can look at Pythagorean records to discern which teams have gotten lucky, and can therefore be expected to decline, and vice versa. As an example, here are the six division leaders as of Friday. The first record listed is their actual record, while the second is their projected record based on runs scored and runs allowed (note that the projections use the more accurate exponent of 1.83, not 2).
|
Team
|
Actual Record
|
Pythagorean Record
|
|
Boston
|
12-4
|
14-2
|
|
Minnesota
|
11-3
|
9-5
|
|
Seattle
|
12-4
|
10-6
|
|
Philadelphia
|
8-6
|
7-7
|
|
Chicago Cubs
|
10-5
|
9-6
|
|
Colorado
|
9-6
|
9-6
|
|
San Francisco
|
9-6
|
6-9
|
The first thing I notice here is just how dominant the Red Sox have been. They've allowed just 32 runs in 16 games, and are actually underachieving despite playing .750 ball. Expecting their pitching to maintain that performance is a bad idea, but it's clear that this team can keep their opponents off the board and score enough runs to win games, with or without Nomar Garciaparra. The Twins are playing good ball, but not as good as their record would indicate; same for the Mariners. The Giants are the luckiest team in baseball so far.
The other thing that jumps out is the difference between the two leagues. Four AL teams have at least 10 wins, while just one NL team does. The NL has no teams with 10 losses, while the AL has four.
If you look at the actual and Pythagorean records of the division leaders, you can see just how disparate the two leagues have been so far. If you rank the teams in baseball by Pythagorean record, you find that the top four and the bottom three teams are all from the American League. The NL has no teams playing below the projected 6-9 of the Cardinals, but the AL has Detroit at 5-9, and the sad sacks of the AL East, Baltimore and Tampa Bay, at 4-12 and 3-13, respectively.
So which teams are overachieving and underachieving?
|
Team
|
Actual Record
|
Pythagorean Record
|
Gap
|
|
San Francisco
|
9-6
|
6-9
|
+3
|
|
Minnesota
|
11-3
|
9-6
|
+2
|
|
Seattle
|
12-4
|
10-6
|
+2
|
|
Baltimore
|
6-10
|
4-12
|
+2
|
|
Atlanta
|
8-8
|
6-10
|
+2
|
The Giants can't be expected to remain atop the deep NL West unless they begin playing better. And Orioles fans can mull over the fact that their disappointing hometown heroes have actually done better than could be expected.
|
Team
|
Actual Record
|
Pythagorean Record
|
Gap
|
|
Florida
|
6-9
|
8-7
|
-2
|
|
Kansas City
|
4-11
|
6-9
|
-2
|
|
Los Angeles
|
8-8
|
10-6
|
-2
|
|
Boston
|
12-4
|
14-2
|
-2
|
|
Anaheim
|
7-9
|
9-7
|
-2
|
The Marlins have been doing a convincing impersonation of the 2000 Astros, with a 1-6 record in one-run games. Their performance so far is basically indistinguishable from the Phillies and Expos, the other teams in the NL East with Pythagorean records of .500 or better. The Los Angeles Times will note that the two local teams have been among the game's unluckiest so far.
The thing to keep in mind is that three weeks just isn't enough time to make decisions. Using Pythagorean records one way to get a better handle on how teams are really performing, but the best analysis takes a step back and waits until the Easter baskets are empty before making any grand statements.
Or printing playoff tickets, Cub fans.
The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com.
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