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Monday, September 2
 
Lost games could cause some to miss out on Hall

By Gary Huckabay
Special to ESPN.com

In 1981, players went on strike for 50 days in the middle of the season, causing the cancellation of 712 games. The season was divided by the strike, and the league offices decided to have separate titles for first and second half divisional champions, who would then meet in an elimination series before the Championship series. In 1994-95, 232 days and 938 regular-season games were cancelled due to a labor stoppage, as well as the entirety of the 1994 postseason.

For those players fortunate and talented enough to have very long and successful careers, a labor stoppage can mean millions of lost dollars, or even worse, a lost opportunity for immortality through enshrinement into Cooperstown or the record books. What was the impact of the recent labor disputes on the careers of some of the greats? Who got hurt the most? Here are a few very successful players who lost significant time during the 1981 and/or 1994-95 labor disputes. And one who also lost an additional month to collusion. In some cases, the lost time may mean the difference between making or not making the Hall of Fame. (All stats from baseball-reference.com)

Harold Baines
Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1981 22 CHW AL 82 280 42 80 11 7 10 41 6 2 12 41 .286 .318 .482
1994 35 BAL AL 94 326 44 96 12 1 16 54 0 0 30 49 .294 .356 .485
1995 36 BAL AL 127 385 60 115 19 1 24 63 0 2 70 45 .299 .403 .540

There's two separate Harold Baineses here. One is a very young, fast, athletic outfielder, playing in an old ballpark rich in tradition and light on amenities. The other is an old but talented designated hitter with crumbling knees, playing in a new ballpark that would become the template for how to create a modern baseball palace.

Baines' Hall of Fame Case has two major holes. First, he spent much of his career as a DH. Second, he's one of the tweeners whose career spanned an era of low offense through his peak, and ended in a time of considerably greater offensive production. His career totals of 2,866 hits and 384 home runs are just shy of the magic 3,000 and 400 that it might take for him to get into the HoF.

How many more hits and home runs would Baines likely have logged? Using simple "on pace" calculations:

1981: 40 hits, 5 HR
1994: 51 hits, 7 HR
1995: 14 hits, 3 HR

That'd bring Baines to 2,971 hits and 399 home runs. He'd get my vote either way, but his odds would probably be considerably better with those numbers literally scratching at Cooperstown's door.

Bert Blyleven
Year Age Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
1981 30 CLE AL 11 7 20 20 9 1 0 159.1 145 51 9 40 107 2.88

Looking at Blyleven's record, the one thing that stands out is that with or without time lost to a strike, he's overqualified for the Hall of Fame. Cooperstown isn't hurting Blyleven by not honoring him with induction; they're only damaging their own already tattered credibility. Blyleven's W/L record doesn't have the magic 300 wins as part of it, in large part because of the rather mediocre teams for which he spent his career. Had the 1981 season been played out as planned, Blyleven was on pace to pitch an additional 90 innings, pushing his career over the 5,000-inning mark. He likely would have won another five or six games, pushing his career total from 287 to over 290.

It'd be easy to say that those additional numbers would push Rik Aalbert into the "can't keep this guy out category", but in many ways, he's already there. But people are strange when it comes to numbers and perception. Items are priced at $19.99 instead of $20.00 because they really do sell better that way. If Blyleven's career innings pitched were 5,060 instead of 4,970, he might already be in the Hall.

Barry Bonds
Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1994 29 SFG NL 112 391 89 122 18 1 37 81 29 9 74 43 .312 .426 .647
1995 30 SFG NL 144 506 109 149 30 7 33 104 31 10 120 83 .294 .431 .577

It's possible that this might be the most tragic performance loss of all. Bonds has a shot at reaching Aaron's record of 755 home runs, but that chance would be considerably greater without the loss of nearly 70 games during Bonds' age 30 and 31 seasons. Bonds could reasonably be expected to have hit approximately 20 additional home runs absent the '94-'95 strike. As of this writing, he has 607 lifetime homers, 148 behind Aaron with probably 3-5 more years left in his career. As great as Bonds has been, it's not going to be easy to get to 756.

It's entirely feasible that Bonds could end up at say, 740 home runs, shy of the No. 1 spot by about as many homers as he probably lost during the '94-'95 strike.

Ken Griffey Jr.
Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1994 24 SEA AL 111 433 94 140 24 4 40 90 11 3 56 73 .323 .402 .674
1995 25 SEA AL 72 260 52 67 7 0 17 42 4 2 52 53 .258 .379 .481

Griffey probably lost about 18 home runs during the lost season of 1994. Before there was the Mark and Sammy show in 1998, there was the 1994 version -- the Junior and Matt Williams show. Both were making a sustained, serious run at Roger Maris' record of 61 home runs when Baseball Tonight started leading with the considerably less pleasant Bud and Don show. Griffey's lost production from the 1995 season was primarily the result of a broken wrist he suffered in a collision with the right-center field wall in the Kingdome. He probably lost 3-5 homers during the 18 games lost at the start of the 1995 season, so the entire labor stoppage cost him around 22 home runs.

Griffey's increasing injury problems the last three years have put a serious dent in his potential pursuit of numbers like 3,000 and 755. Still, even with all the problems, Griffey has 467 home runs at age 33, and with a little health and that swing, those 22 homers could end up being worth a few spots on the all-time home run list. Mark McGwire missed nearly two full seasons before returning to health and becoming a force of nature. Who's to say Griffey can't do something similar?

Rickey Henderson
Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1981 22 OAK AL 108 423 89 135 18 7 6 35 56 22 64 68 .319 .408 .437
1994 35 OAK AL 87 296 66 77 13 0 6 20 22 7 72 45 .260 .411 .365
1995 36 OAK AL 112 407 67 122 31 1 9 54 32 10 72 66 .300 .407 .447

Henderson is already going to cruise into Cooperstown on the first ballot. He's rightly considered the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, but people do have a tendency to forget what a tremendous player Henderson's been if he hadn't stolen more bases than anyone else. Henderson spent the bulk of his prime in two of the toughest hitters' parks in recent history -- the Oakland Coliseum and Yankee Stadium, prior to renovations on both parks that made them more hitter-friendly.

Henderson's already in the record books for his run and walk records, though both are in jeopardy at the hands of Barry Bonds. What were Henderson's expected losses in terms of runs, walks, and stolen bases?

1981: 43 runs, 31 walks, 27 stolen bases
1994: 27 runs, 30 walks, nine stolen bases
1995: eight runs, nine walks, four stolen bases
Total: 78 runs, 70 walks, 40 stolen bases

Some fairly significant losses. The runs and walks might have eventually made the difference between first and second on the all-time lists, depending on how Barry Bonds' remaining years play out.

Dale Murphy
Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1981 25 ATL NL 104 369 43 91 12 1 13 50 14 5 44 72 .247 .325 .390

Murphy doesn't have a particularly strong statistical case for the Hall of Fame, and his 1981 season stands out as a serious down year between two seasons of brilliance. If we limit ourselves to assuming he would have played at this level for the entire season, and the Braves could have played all 162 games, his numbers end up looking like this:

Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1981 25 ATL NL 159 564 66 139 18 2 20 76 21 8 67 110 .247 .325 .390

Not a huge boost. It does put Murphy over the 400 home run plateau, but it's still a difficult case to make for the HoF, at least in terms of mere performance. Murphy's rapid decline, beginning in the 1988 season, kept him from piling up some of those milestones that voters like to see.

Tim Raines
Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
1981 21 MON NL 88 313 61 95 13 7 5 37 71 11 45 31 .304 .391 .438
1987 27 MON NL 139 530 123 175 34 8 18 68 50 5 90 52 .330 .429 .526
1994 34 CHW AL 101 384 80 102 15 5 10 52 13 0 61 43 .266 .365 .409
1995 35 CHW AL 133 502 81 143 25 4 12 67 13 2 70 52 .285 .374 .422

1987 is included here because of collusion. Raines was unable to find a taker on the free-agent market because of collusion, and as a result, missed all of April because he was prohibited from re-signing with the Expos until May 1. After that, Raines went on a tear that didn't end all year, posting that .330/.429/.526 season, which was amazing, even within the inflated offensive context of 1987.

Raines' HoF case is somewhat muted because of his misfortune in being a direct contemporary of Rickey Henderson. Raines did everything Rickey did -- just not quite as well. Even without the time lost to labor disputes, Raines has a tremendous case for the Hall of Fame. His career numbers:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
2487 8854 1563 2601 430 113 170 979 808 146 1330 961 .294 .368 .425

Viewed in the context of the times in which he played, Raines is a very deserving Hall of Famer. None of his counting stats except stolen bases really jump out at you, and that could hurt him with a number of voters. How badly were those counting stats hurt by various labor disputes? Let's focus on lost hits, runs scored, and stolen bases:

1981: 47 hits, 31 runs, 36 stolen bases
1987: 29 hits, 20 runs, eight stolen bases
1994: 44 hits, 34 runs, six stolen bases
1995: 18 hits, 10 runs, two stolen bases
Total: 138 hits, 95 runs, 52 stolen bases

That'd move Raines up to 2,739 hits, 1,658 runs, and 860 stolen bases. Hopefully, he'll be admitted to the Hall immediately upon eligibility, but the little boost in counting stats certainly couldn't hurt. By the way ... did you check those SB/CS numbers for the seasons affected by labor stoppages? 147 steals, 18 caught stealing, for a nasty 89 percent success rate -- enough to make Henderson envious.

Cincinnati Reds
1981, First half: 35-21 (2nd place in NL West)
1981, Second half: 31-21 (2nd place in NL West)

The Dodgers and Astros took advantage of the split-season format to earn berths in the expanded 1981 postseason. Meanwhile, the Reds posted the best record in the Senior Circuit during the regular season, and got to watch the Dodgers, whom they beat by four games during the regular season, become World Champions. That had to sting a little bit.

Montreal Expos
1994: 74-40 (1st place in NL East)

Like the Reds 13 years earlier, the Expos were deprived of an opportunity to play in the postseason, despite having the best record in the National League. The Expos also had a chance to do something no team has done since -- break the Braves' stranglehold on the NL East title. Since that lost opportunity, the Expos have become the poster child for ineffectual management and player exodus, losing or trading the likes of Larry Walker and Pedro Martinez.

What really jumps out at you upon looking at the performances of these players is the scope of the loss in the event of a work stoppage. Records, particularly in counting stats like hits, walks, or home runs, are reached at the end of a career, usually by scratching and clawing during the final phases of one's career. The loss the game suffers because of a strike or lockout isn't confined to a single season; its impact is felt in the record books through the absence of some truly deserving players. Thankfully, when someone's writing a piece similar to this several years down the road, they won't have to include the 2002 or 2003 seasons in a piece lamenting milestones barely missed by the likes of Alex Rodriguez or Randy Johnson.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus at baseballprospectus.com. Gary Huckabay can be reached at ghuckabay@baseballprospectus.com. Baseball Prospectus is a registered trademark of Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.






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