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| Friday, August 15 A's young rotation ranks among best of all-time By Mark Armour, Joe Sheehan and Keith Woolner Special to ESPN.com |
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With the impressive debut of Rich Harden, the 2003 A's have a rotation that is not only among the best in baseball, but one that has no member over the age of 27. Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder have already established themselves as among the best pitchers in the league. Health and contract willing, the Big Four could dominate American League hitters for years to come. The current A's are the latest in a line of successful teams with young rotations, a group that stretches back to the early days of the 20th century. What are the most notable young rotations, and what does having a collection of excellent young pitchers say about a team's chances to win a championship?
As young as the century itself They got all but two of their 140 starts from pitchers 28 or under, and led the National League with a 3.06 ERA. Deacon Phillippe (20-8, 2.84) and Jesse Tannehill (20-6, 2.88) anchored the rotation, while Hall of Famers Jack Chesbro (15-13, 3.62) and Rube Waddell (8-13, 2.37) combined for 36 starts in their first full seasons in the NL. After finishing second in '00, Phillippe, Tannehill, Chesbro and Sam Leever would go on to win back-to-back National League pennants in 1901 and 1902, and Phillippe and Leever pitched for the 1903 champs.
The 1960s Rookies Steve Barber (10-7, 3.22) and Chuck Estrada (18-11, 3.58) were the old men among the group at 22, while 21-year-old "veterans" Milt Pappas (15-11, 3.37), Jerry Walker (3-4, 3.74) and Jack Fisher (12-11, 3.41) were a big part of the team's surprising season. You would be hard-pressed to find another team getting this much work from this many pitchers so young. While Pappas went on to win 209 games and get a permanent place in the game's history as the guy traded for Frank Robinson, the other four pitchers had much less success. Estrada threw 644 innings through the age of 24, just 120 after. Barber, who may have been the hardest thrower in baseball at the time, had big years in '61, '63 and '65, but hurt his elbow and was never the same after 1966. Neither Walker, who got hurt in 1960, nor Fisher ever finished above .500 again, although Fisher became an innings sponge for the 1960s Mets. Later in the decade, the Orioles would develop another crop of young pitchers that proved to have more success, culminating in four pennants and world championships in 1966 and 1970. In '66, Dave McNally was a veteran at 23, and put up a 13-6, 3.17 season. Jim Palmer won 15 games as a 20-year-old (and paid a price; he would miss almost all of the next two seasons with an elbow injury). Wally Bunker, 21, started 24 times (10-6, 3.33 ERA -- high for that era) and threw a shutout in Game 4 of the World Series. McNally and Palmer would be joined by young pitchers Tom Phoebus and Jim Hardin (as well as thirtysomething Mike Cuellar) for three straight pennants in 1969-71.
Young staffs didn't necessarily mean inexperienced staffs in this era, thanks in part to rules that forced players receiving big signing bonuses onto major-league rosters. The top four starters on the 1961 Dodgers were 28 or younger, but three of them had started their careers back in Brooklyn. Sandy Koufax (25), Don Drysdale (24), Stan Williams (24) and Johnny Podres (28) combined for 136 starts in the oddly-proportioned Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, putting up unimpressive statistics thanks to a Little League-distance left-field wall. By 1963, Dodger Stadium had opened, the strike zone was bigger, and the Dodgers were off to three pennants in four years. Koufax, Drysdale and Podres were key parts, joined in 1965 by 25-year-old Claude Osteen and in 1966 by 21-year-old Don Sutton. In 1964, in fact, all but 2 2/3 Dodgers innings were thrown by pitchers 28 and younger. Around the same time, over in the AL, the Indians assembled a strong young rotation that contributed to their only run of any success between 1959 and 1995. Sam McDowell, Steve Hargan and Luis Tiant all established themselves between 1964 and 1966. The '66 team featured those three (all 25 and younger) as well 29-year-olds Gary Bell and Sonny Seibert. They went 87-75 in 1965, 81-81 in 1966 and 86-75 in 1968 before slipping into a 25-year funk. Those mid-'60s staffs could have been even better. Tommy John won 14 games in 1965 and 1966 for the White Sox at 22 and 23. The Indians had dealt him and Tommie Agee away before the 1965 season to reacquire Rocky Colavito, who had his last good season in '65.
A cautionary tale Almost all of the Reds' young pitchers in this era got hurt and had painfully short careers, perhaps because of their heavy work at young ages. Nolan was available only sporadically in '68 and '69, missed almost all of 1973, and never pitched in the majors after 29; chronic elbow soreness was the culprit. Maloney, who pitched with a sore arm his whole career, was done at 29. Ellis' career ended at 28, Queen's at 30. Billy McCool made 11 starts and had a 3.42 ERA as a 22-year-old in 1967. He was out of the majors by 26. Wayne Simpson was the best pitcher in baseball in the first half of 1970 (13-1, 2.27 through July 5), and did nothing afterwards. Don Gullett came up in '70 as a 19-year-old, threw 217 2/3 innings at 20 (16-6, 2.65), and was out of baseball at 28 with a career record of 109-50 and an ERA of 3.11. The Big Red Machine is remembered more for their lineup than their pitching staffs; if the Reds could have done a better job of keeping the many pitchers they developed in the 1960s and 1970s healthy, they might have won a couple more championships.
Like these teams Not as well remembered are the Cubs, who played bridesmaid to the Mets in 1969, but had a pretty good young rotation of their own, with four starters 29 or younger, three of them 25 or younger. Fergie Jenkins (25 years old, 42 starts, 3.21 ERA) and Bill Hands (29 years old, 41 starts, 2.49 ERA) anchored the staff, while 23-year-old Ken Holtzman and 25-year-old April pickup Dick Selma were an underrated part of the Cubbies' 92-win season. After a disappointing 1971 campaign, Holtzman was traded to the Oakland A's for Rick Monday. Just 26, he would again be part of a great young rotation for the A's, winning 19 games with a 2.51 ERA as the team won its second straight AL West title. The '72 A's finished second in the AL with a 2.58 ERA despite only Catfish Hunter, 26, having a career year. In 1973, the same five starters (Holtzman, Hunter, Vida Blue, Blue Moon Odom and Dave Hamilton) again finished second in the AL and won a world championship, with no one over the age of 28.
Generation X Two years later, Hurst, Boyd, Nipper and that right-hander -- Roger Clemens -- got within one out of a championship, eventually losing the World Series to the Mets -- featuring Bobby Ojeda -- in seven games. The Mets themselves were in the Series thanks to young pitching: five starters, Ojeda the oldest at 28, Rick Aguilera the worst ERA at 3.88. If anything, 1985 was the season in which the Mets' rotation was at its most impressive. Dwight Gooden's historic 24-4, 1.53 performance was backed up by Ron Darling (24 years old, 35 starts, 2.90 ERA), Sid Fernandez (22 years old, 26 starts, 2.80 ERA) and Aguilera (23 years old, 19 starts, 3.24 ERA). The big story in 1985 was another young rotation, one that won a world championship. Nobody over the age of 28 started a game for the Royals, while Bret Saberhagen won the Cy Young Award and the World Series MVP award at 21. Danny Jackson, 23, made 32 starts with a 3.42 ERA and had an ERA of 1.04 in the postseason. The rotation stayed more or less intact through 1987, but never again had this level of success collectively. The best recent parallel to the A's will be famililar to all of you: the early-1990s Braves, the youngest and best of which was the 1993 team. No pitcher older than 27 started a game, as free agent Greg Maddux replaced veteran Charlie Leibrandt before the season. The Braves led the league in ERA, and had the NL Cy Young winner in Maddux, a 22-game winner in Tom Glavine, and Steve Avery's last big year at the age of 23 (18-6, 2.94 ERA), plus John Smoltz. While the 1993 edition of the team lost in the NLCS, this staff would go to the World Series three more times and win one championship.
Conclusion Unlike the mid-1960s Reds, the current A's have not been worked particularly hard, nor were they asked to do too much as teenagers. Like the mid-1960s Dodgers and the mid-1980s Mets, they work in a very good pitchers' park. And they do so in front of a very good defense, which makes their job easier than, say, the pitchers on the Red Sox in the 1980s. Mostly, though, what we see in the list above are championships. Teams that feature rotations with the youth, performance and ability of the 2003 A's win pennants. They stay atop the game for extended stretches, and they usually win at least one World Series. Even the least successful of the teams above, such as the Royals and the Red Sox, were either contenders for a number of years or won a title. Only the Indians failed to leverage their young pitching staff into a pennant. The A's young rotation gives them a big leg up on winning the World Series, and will likely lead them to at least one championship by 2006. You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus at baseballprospectus.com. |
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