For the most shocking development of baseball's first half, take a peek at the top of each division. The six division leaders occupying the top spot were not division winners a year ago.

Each year there are a handful of surprising first-half teams. Some may have picked Boston or Arizona to win their respective divisions, but not Seattle, Minnesota, Philadelphia or the Cubs. And of the six division leaders on the morning of July 4, only the Mariners and Yankees made it to the postseason last year.

One can make a case for the Twins, Cubs and Phillies being the most surprising team of the first half because their performances have been so unexpected. But even more startling is the Mariners' 120-win pace. Everyone knew the Mariners were a good enough team to lead the AL West, but no one figured they would win 60 of their first 81 games, especially after losing three superstars -- Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson -- in three years.

BEST OF THE HALF

MVP AL -- (tie) Manny Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki, Bret Boone NL -- Luis Gonzalez Ramirez has been the man for the Red Sox all season. Ichiro ignited the city of Seattle and has been the catalyst for the Mariners. When they lost A-Rod, they knew Carlos Guillen wouldn't compensate for the loss offensively. But they also didn't figure Boone would have 82-plus RBI with a week left before the All-Star Game. I pick Gonzalez over Bonds because the Diamondbacks are in first place. CY YOUNG AL -- Roger Clemens NL -- Curt Schilling Both pitchers should be the starters in the All-Star Game. Schilling eats up innings and has 12 wins, while Clemens has gone 11-1. But Schilling pitched Tuesday, so he is due to pitch again Sunday. Rarely does someone start the All-Star Game on one day's rest. The Yankees have said Clemens may be used in relief over the weekend. With Pedro Martinez out, Clemens is the obvious choice.

Another surprising team, the Baltimore Orioles, is only playing .500 ball. But the Orioles have played much better than anyone thought. After they lost Albert Belle to retirement, Scott Erickson to injury and Mike Mussina to the Yankees, most assumed the Orioles would be a strong candidate for 100 losses. But they have found adequate replacements, especially on their staff, with rookie Josh Towers and Jason Johnson.

Surprising players: Ichiro!
Looking at individual first-half surprises, you must start with Ichiro. He may have won seven Japanese batting titles and had a lifetime .353 batting average for the Orix Blue Wave, but a lot of scouts who saw him in spring training thought pitchers would knock the bats out of his hands. But after the first week of spring training and facing hard throwers like Kerry Wood and Curt Schilling, Ichiro made adjustments in his swing to catch up to the 95-mph fastballs. He has been fun to watch as an unorthodox hitter and a spectacular baserunner and outfielder.

In the NL, John Burkett has been a godsend for the Braves, who have missed Kevin Millwood and John Smoltz for most of the first half. Even though Burkett has won only six games, he has matched Greg Maddux's ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts, helping the Braves recover and stay close to Philadelphia in the NL East.

Disappointments: Not in the Cards
The Cardinals have lost 11 of their last 12 on the road and fallen down the standings in the NL Central. The veteran team has received a tremendous boost from rookie Albert Pujols, but their pitching has failed, and players like Edgar Renteria, Ray Lankford and Mike Matheny have had poor halves at the plate. Mark McGwire looked like he would catch fire, but now he is scuffling at the plate and is hitless in his last 25 at-bats.

Other NL disappointments include the Mets, with their combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, and the Rockies' pitching. After Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle in the rotation, the rest of the pitching staff is offering little production.

In the AL, Cleveland's starting pitching has fallen well short of matching its hitting and bullpen. In the last 42 games, the ERA of the Indians' starters is over 6.70. The A's have struggled, from not having a No. 4 hitter (Oakland cleanup hitters are a combined .195 with seven home runs) to the bullpen's meltdown early in the year. Johnny Damon has never been a great first-month player, but he has performed far well expectations for the entire half. Toronto has stumbled and should be the first team to begin unloading players -- and it may happen quickly.

Kudos: Depleted Red Sox getting it done
I can think of no greater Red Sox fan's nightmare this season than having Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, Carl Everett, Jason Varitek, John Valentin, Frank Castillo and Rich Garces on the DL. Yet somehow, the Red Sox are only a half-game behind the Yankees. It's a tremendous testimony to manager Jimy Williams, who gets his 25 players to believe they can win every day. Boston is still winning despite several lineup changes.

The Dodgers deserve credit for hanging tough in the NL West. I don't think they have enough to win the division; they have lost Andy Ashby and now Darren Dreifort for the season. Kevin Brown has missed time this season. Gary Sheffield has been gutting it out, playing with a bad finger. Eric Karros has a back problem. Mark Grudzielanek just returned from the DL. Yet the Dodgers have stayed close, winning eight straight games.

Above the Dodgers in the standings, the Diamondbacks have experienced several setbacks. Brian Anderson and Armando Reynoso have been on the DL twice. Todd Stottlemyre is out for the season. They haven't had Mike Morgan or Bobby Witt all year. They lost their closer, Matt Mantei. Matt Williams has played only 38 games. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks still have a 4½-game lead.

Second half: M's pace will slow
Don't expect the Mariners to continue winning at the same rate in the second half. Sooner or later, they will hit a skid. As a veteran manager, Lou Piniella knows he has one job to do -- get his players and pitchers rested and ready to eat bear in the postseason.

I think they need to acquire a power pitcher to complement Freddy Garcia. Piniella does not like to use finesse pitchers in the playoffs. Aaron Sele throws a fastball, curveball and changeup, but he's not overpowering. Neither are left-handers Jamie Moyer and John Halama and right-hander Paul Abbott.

For instance, if the Mariners play the Yankees in the postseason, and the Yankees get Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez back, they can use Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and El Duque. It won't matter how many games the Mariners won in the regular season. The pitching matchups would favor New York over everyone but Garcia.

Piniella must keep an eye on Ichiro, who plays all-out but has never played more than 135 games in a season. He has used Jeff Nelson, Arthur Rhodes and Jose Paniagua to set up Kazuhiro Sasaki, but he must make sure in the last few weeks of September that they are ready for October. Forget about 120 wins; it means nothing unless they win the World Series. It's like the '98 Yankees, who won 114 games. If they hadn't won the World Series, the season would have been considered a failure.

Second-half keys
AL East -- Pedro Martinez, Boston: He must be totally healthy. The Red Sox need him down the stretch to close out the division. They are winning now with glue, paste and baling wire. If Williams can keep pushing them to the All-Star Game and a little beyond, the Red Sox will be fine, especially as they start getting players back one by one, including Martinez and Nomar. If they don't get Martinez and other key players back, the Yankees will leave them in the dust.

AL Central -- Cleveland's starters: The Indians have all the offense they need and a solid bullpen. On paper their rotation looks strong, but it's been an unmitigated disaster for the last six weeks. To keep up with the Twins, the starters must put a stop to their inconsistent ways.

AL West -- Lou Piniella, Seattle: There is no key player in the West, not with the Mariners having better than a 20-game lead. Piniella will try to win as many games as possible and keep pushing them, like a Tony La Russa. But once the Mariners have the division firmly in hand, he will know when to back off and get the team rested for the postseason grind.

NL East -- Unknown player, Atlanta: There is no doubt the Braves will go out and acquire some help at first base. We don't know it will be, but they need another bat in the lineup.

NL Central -- Scott Elarton, Houston: The Astros can make a run in the second half. They have the best offense in the division, and it looks like Roy Oswalt and Tim Redding have come up from the minors to stabilize the rotation. They need Elarton (4-8, 6.77 ERA) and Shane Reynolds to pitch better in the second half if the Astros hope to close the gap and overtake the Cubs.

NL West -- Livan Hernandez, San Francisco: He'll be the key player for the Giants. He had a miserable first half, going 6-11 with a 6.20 ERA. As well as Arizona has played, the Giants are still looming, and they finished well last year (51-26 after the All-Star break). They need some quality starts from Hernandez, who emerged as the staff ace last season, especially in the second half.

Dave Campbell, who played eight seasons in the major leagues, is an analyst for Baseball Tonight and ESPN Radio.