Hello, everyone. We'll be doing the Down on the Farm mailbag a few times this month, then once the season begins we'll start up once-per-week again. We have plenty of letters in ye olde e-mail box, so let's get right to it.

Michael B. writes: This is something I've wondered about as I've become more familiar with the process of drafting and bringing along prospects. Clearly, high school pitchers are, in general, a bad gamble in the early rounds of drafts, as any number of studies have shown. However, just as clearly, there are high school pitchers who should be drafted early, even in the first round. A draft strategy that writes Josh Beckett off your list can't be the way to go. So what should fans (and organizations for that matter) look for in high school pitchers that would set them apart from the many flameouts? Or is it just a complete crap shoot?

	Beckett

As you point out, many studies show that high school pitchers are bad bets in the first round. My colleague here at ESPN.com, Dave Schoenfield, recently wrote an article about this. There's no question that, over a long period of time, first-round high school pitchers have underperformed their college counterparts.

"A draft strategy that writes Josh Beckett off your list can't be the way to go." The problem is that we don't know exactly how Josh Beckett's career is going to develop. A few years ago, we could have written the same sentence about Steve Avery or Dwight Gooden ... or Roger Salkeld. Beckett is the best pitching prospect in baseball, right now. But Beckett could blow out his shoulder next week and never pitch again, for all we know.

It is easy to say something like "If I were a scouting director, I'd never pick a high school pitcher." But faced with someone with the talent of Josh Beckett, well, it might be hard to stick with it. I think what it boils down to is knowing the odds: the odds are stacked against first-round high school pitchers. They are also stacked against high school catchers, yet the Twins had no compunction about drafting Joe Mauer last year, and it is hard to fault their decision.

There are occasional examples of pitchers who are so overwhelmingly talented that history is less important. It would be foolish to tell any scouting director not to draft Josh Beckett or Joe Mauer. But it would be equally foolish for scouting directors to draft first-round high school pitchers year after year, which some teams do, in defiance of history.

How do you tell whether a guy is a good gamble as high schoolers go? Well, you have to look at the same things you look for in any pitcher: velocity, command, mechanics, intellect, emotional maturity, workload history, overall athleticism. And even a high school pitcher who has all of those things still has the odds stacked against him. Josh Beckett may beat those odds. If he does, he's an exception to the rule. We'll find out soon enough.

Jeff from Washington writes: I have acquired Jimmy Gobble (Royals), Nick Ungs (Marlins), and J.D. Martin (Indians) in our latest draft and I would like to hear what you think of them. I'm thinking Gobble is the best of the three, but I'm having trouble with the rest. Ungs' control is intriguing, and his college numbers (with Northern Iowa) were impressive, though he seemed to struggle a little against the better schools (Wichita State/Nebraska), so I'm wondering if he was just pitching against lower-level talent. Martin dominated in the Appy league, but they didn't move him up when he was obviously better than the competition at that level. What do you think of this trio?

Gobble is the best of the batch at this point, definitely. He is one of the better southpaw prospects in the game; if he pitched for the Yankees or Dodgers rather than the Royals, more people would have heard of him. He's a year away and needs Double-A/Triple-A time, but he is a solid long-term property as young pitchers go. His fastball is decent, he throws strikes with his breaking stuff, and he's been healthy since signing in 1999.

Martin was a supplemental first-rounder by the Indians last spring, out of high school in California. He went 5-1, 1.38 in rookie ball, with an awesome 72/11 K/BB ratio. I wouldn't worry about the fact that the Indians didn't promote him; he was just out of high school, and keeping him in rookie ball was a wise move. No sense in pushing him too quickly. His fastball isn't super-hot, but his command and control are exceptional.

Ungs isn't nearly the prospect that Gobble and Martin are, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be watched. He was a 12th round pick by the Marlins last year, out of Northern Iowa as you point out. His fastball is average, but his command is so good that it's hard to believe ... he walked zero guys in 61 innings in the New York-Penn League. You have to love his control, but we need to see how his stuff holds up at higher levels. College-trained finesse pitchers often don't face a real challenge until they get to Double-A.

I'd rate them Gobble, Martin, Ungs, in that order.

John B. writes: After just reading your farm system analysis regarding the Chicago Cubs, I must be blunt in begging for your mercy. Hearing educated baseball writers praise the Cubs are grounds for my left arm to start hurting, as well as my vision becoming blurry. While your reports obviously ring true in a sense, I beg of you and other analysts to never mention the Cubs again. If they start the season 40-0, kindly look away and iterate about the disappointing start to Mo Vaughn's big apple campaign. If there is a God somewhere, and you consider yourself a compassionate human being, please do not mention any surprising developments coming from 1060 W. Addison. The curse of the Billy Goat might be ridiculous, but inflating heads of MLB players can be done. Thus, let Cubs fans hold cautious (driving 15 mph in an afternoon drizzle cautious) optimism about the boys in blue who never cease to break our hearts.

I've received several similar letters from Cubs fans, begging me to stop praising their farm system for fear of the hubristic curse that will inevitably result. Cubs fans are like the blue-skinned businessman eating at Charlie's Restaurant on Sesame Street ... gluttons for punishment. But I have to call it like I see it: the Cubs farm system is loaded, quite probably the strongest in the game.

Of course, this doesn't mean that everything will work out. Having a strong farm system is a necessary condition for long-term success, but it is not a sufficient one. It is always possible that Andy MacPhail could morph into Grover. But the raw material for success is here. That's the first step, and the most important one.

Justin V. asks: I'm wondering if you might have any information on a certain prospect in the Blue Jays organization. I live in Dunedin, Fla., which is where the Jays hold their spring training and also have their Class A team in the Florida State League. As you can imagine, living in this area, I have had the opportunity to see numerous Dunedin games and Blue Jays spring-training games. Last year a certain pitcher caught my eye, right-hander Vinnie Chulk. This kid topped out at 96 mph and had a wicked slider and nasty change to go along with it. He started out at Dunedin and ended up in Double-A Tennessee (with a few cameos in Triple-A Syracuse). He dominated hitters in the Florida State League, and seemed to put up good numbers everywhere he went last year. What do you think of him?

Chulk was a 12th-round pick in 2000, from St. Thomas University in Florida. He started his career in rookie ball in '00, then vaulted all the way to Triple-A in his first full season last year. Most of his campaign was spent at Double-A Tennessee, where he posted a 43/8 K/BB ratio in 43 innings, allowing just 34 hits. I should have put him in the Minor League Scouting Notebook this year, but neglected to do so.

In 152 professional innings, he has a fine 147/45 K/BB ratio. He throws hard, and the Blue Jays are already mentioning his name as a potential middle-relief candidate for later this year. He looks like a pretty decent relief prospect to me, a C+ or B- at this point, someone to stash away on your sleeper lists.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.