![]() | |
![]() |
| Friday, May 16 Marlins could have a gem in lefty Willis By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
I have to deal with Alfonso Soriano once again. In last week's mailbag, I said the comment in my May 2 mailbag about his increasing walk rate was misleading because I hadn't accounted for unintentional walks, which made up half of the apparent increase. This generated further e-mail, pointing out that my original post was correct -- that Soriano's walk rate actually was higher since unintentional walks only made up one-third of his total. The problem was that Soriano drew some walks after last week's mea culpa was written, but before it was posted on ESPN.com. So let's address this one more time, looking at games through May 14: Soriano has five intentional walks, and 11 unintentional walks in 174 at-bats. His unintentional walk rate is still higher than it was last year, although at this point in the season, the sample size is still quite small. I will revisit the issue of Soriano's patience or lack thereof later in the year when there's more data to evaluate. Toby P. writes: Would you give me the skinny on Dontrelle Willis, the Florida Marlins' little-known super prospect.
Willis has made two starts for the Marlins now. He has a 4.91 ERA, but I note the fact that he's fanned 14 in his first 11 innings, a good sign for the future. He hasn't received as much attention as some other hot pitching prospects, but he's certainly one of the best lefty prospects around, and with all the injuries on the Marlins pitching staff, he's getting a chance sooner than expected. Willis, a left-hander, was originally drafted by the Cubs in the eighth round in 2000, out of high school in California. He pitched well for their short-season A-ball club in '01, then was traded to Florida in the Matt Clement deal last spring. In '02 he emerged on the prospect lists with a strong season at Class A Kane County and Class A Jupiter, combining for a 128/24 K/BB ratio in 158 innings, with a 1.82 ERA. Impressive on the mound at 6-4, 200, Willis has a decent fastball that registers in the upper 80s/low 90s on the radar gun. But the pitch has good movement, and he uses a very deceptive delivery to make the pitch look faster than the guns say it is. He also has good control and a strong changeup. Willis has come very far, very fast, and has very little experience above A-ball. How he adjusts to major-league conditions is uncertain at this time, though he's done OK in his first two outings. He is definitely an exciting prospect, but I worry that Florida may be forced to rely on him for a lot of innings this year, and he might not be ready for that just yet. Dan M. writes: Any idea what happened to Devil Rays prospect Josh Hamilton? He seems to have fallen off the face of the earth. Hamilton took the first few weeks of the season off for personal reasons, then came back in early May. But a few days ago, the D-Rays announced that Hamilton had left the organization again and was unlikely to play more this year. His problems apparently have nothing to do with drugs, alcohol, or women. A recent Baseball America article says that Hamilton is struggling with "depression caused by family problems and professional pressures." I don't know the details of all this, and frankly it really isn't any of our business. As someone who has struggled with depression throughout my own life, I have nothing but sympathy for anyone experiencing similar problems. It's easy to say something like "Hamilton is set for life and is a professional athlete with the world at his feet, so what does he have to be depressed about?" But sometimes we forget that ballplayers are human, too. Fear or self-doubt can haunt anyone; it is not a sign of weakness or lack of character. Whatever the nature of his problems, I wish him the best of luck. Augusto asks: Jason Bay, Jason Bay, Jason Bay. The guy is having an incredible year. He is hitting for power, taking walks and getting some steals. What kind of prospect is he? Bay is hitting .333/.447/.618 so far for Triple-A Portland in the Padres system, dramatically outhitting teammate Tagg Bozied, who is much more heralded as a prospect. Bay also has eight steals, and has drawn 24 walks vs. 20 strikeouts in 39 games. Power, speed, walks; he is doing it all. Who is this guy? Bay was originally in the Expos system, a 22nd-round pick in 2000 from Gonzaga. A right-handed hitting outfielder, he gained notice by hitting .362 with 13 homers in 87 games for Class A Clinton in '01. He was traded to the Mets in March of '02, then on to the Padres last July in the Steve Reed trade. Entering '03, he has a career minor-league average of .300 in 286 games, with a .388 OBP and a .466 SLG. What he's doing this year is not at all out of career context, but he's doing it in Triple-A, in his first exposure at that level. He's 24, not young as prospects go but not too old, either. I think he's likely to be a better player than many more-heralded prospects. His tools aren't the best in the universe, but he plays like a Seven Skill player, and that's what it's all about. He could be really good. Andrew J. asks: Can you tell me a little bit about Orioles right-hander John Maine? It seems like he is tearing up the Sally League and advancing quite quickly. Is he a true prospect to watch or just taking advantage of Sally League hitters? What are his chances of being with the O's in 2005? Maine was a sixth-round pick last year, from UNC-Charlotte. He pitched great after signing, posting a 60/7 K/BB ratio in 43 innings, with a 1.45 ERA. As you mention, he is manhandling the Sally League right now, going 4-1, 1.30 in eight starts, with a 53/11 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He has little left to learn at that level, and a promotion will probably happen shortly. Will Maine continue pitching like this at higher levels? It's possible. He throws hard enough (89-94 mph), and his slider is rated as a plus pitch. He had problems with his mechanics and command in college, but these haven't been evident as a pro. His exact ETA in Baltimore will depend on what happens when he gets promoted, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him rated among the better pitching prospects in the game a year from now. Keep a close eye on him. John Sickels is the author of the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered from his website, JohnSickels.com. His biography of Bob Feller will be published this fall by Brassey's. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com. |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||