Down on the Farm

John Sickels

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Sunday, June 15
 
Phillies prospect Hamels posts dazzling numbers

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

Dan S. writes: Despite being a later addition to the Lakewood Blue Claws roster due to reporting in poor shape, left-hander Cole Hamels has been nothing less than amazing in his brief professional career. He has allowed only 17 hits in 32.2 innings while also striking out a Billy Wagner-esque 54. Combined with his miniscule 0.83 ERA, he has numbers that rival any pitcher in the minors. Do you think that if he continues this pace for the rest of the year the Phillies will have any other choice than to fast track him to the majors?

All the numbers you mention are accurate, but I would also like to point out that Hamels has walked 11 guys, so he has a 54/11 K/BB in 32.2 innings, excellent. Basically, there are no holes in his numbers.

Is Hamels destined for the fast track? Possibly, although it is too early to tell for sure. He was Philadelphia's first-round pick in 2002, out of high school in San Diego. He was the 17th-overall pick, but many scouts felt he was the best high school pitcher in the draft and worthy of a top-five slot. He fell to the middle of the first round because of concerns about a high school pitching injury. He broke his throwing arm as a sophomore. The injury healed properly, and isn't the same type of break that ruined the careers of Dave Dravecky, Tom Browning, and Tony Saunders, but it was enough to scare teams at the top of the draft away.

Hamels has a fastball clocked between 89 and 94 mph. His curveball is excellent, and his changeup is certainly better than that featured by most 19-year-olds. His control is decent, and he is overpowering minor-league hitters with ease thus far. If he continues doing that, he could be fast-tracked, yes. But the Phillies are generally conservative with their pitching prospects, and like to promote them one level at a time without rushing them or skipping levels. I think that's a good philosophy. If Hamels continues with the sub-1.00 ERA, he could move up a notch to advanced A-ball, but I would be surprised if we see him in Double-A before next spring, and even that may be pushing it. The Phillies know they have a gem here, and I doubt they'll do anything reckless with him.

The final thing to remember is that it's just six games. One bad start can easily throw his numbers off.

David R. asks: Can you give me your thoughts on two Dodgers' prospects -- Franklin Gutierrez and Bubba Crosby. Both are outfielders and have been tearing up their respective leagues. How far away from a call-up are they?

Gutierrez was signed out of Venezuela in 2000. He hit .283 with 12 homers and 13 steals last year for Class A South Georgia, but didn't get a lot of attention in the prospect press. He is very toolsy and athletic, but needs refinement in his swing and improved plate discipline. Although he has cooled down somewhat after a fast start this year, Gutierrez is still hitting .304 (.365 OBP, .579 SLG) this year, with 15 homers and 12 steals at Class A Vero Beach. He strikes out too much, fanning 73 times in 67 games, and making contact at higher levels will be difficult unless he changes his approach. But he is just 19 years old, and has made significant progress this year. I wouldn't expect to see him in the majors for at least two years.

Crosby was the Dodgers' first-round pick back in 1998, out of Rice. His progress through the system has been stalled by injuries and general inconsistency. But he hit .401 through 49 games at Triple-A Las Vegas this spring, earning a promotion to The Show, where he is 1-for-9 so far. Crosby is a line-drive hitter with a high octane hustle approach. He doesn't have enough raw power to be an everyday corner outfielder, and his range is marginal for center field. But as a fourth outfielder, he can do good work.

Ari S. writes: I have found your book and your ESPN comments and analysis to be tremendously helpful in evaluating potential minor-league draft choices for my rotisserie team. I wanted to ask you about Jeremy Reed, the White Sox OF prospect. He was not listed in your book, but he is hitting for a torrid BA with a 41-17 BB/K ratio and 27 steals and a respectable slugging average in high A. He also did not strike me as either particularly old or particularly young for his league. Did he come out of nowhere, and is he a real prospect? If he is, what grade would you give him and what major-leaguer might be a good comparison in terms of projected future performance?

Reed is currently hitting .333 (.431 OBP, .477 SLG) at Class A Winston-Salem in the Carolina League. He has just four homers, but has knocked 18 doubles, and as you point out he is also stealing bases and controlling the strike zone.

I'm not sure why I didn't put him in the book. It looks like an oversight/mistake. He didn't really come out of nowhere; he was a second-round pick out of Long Beach State in 2002, and had a good college career. He also hit .319 in the Sally League after signing last year. Reed is a line-drive hitter with a smooth stroke from the left side. He does not hit many home runs, but he has gap power, steals bases, and gets on base. I don't think he has enough power to be a corner guy unless he hits .300 plus in the majors. Whether he turns into a .300 hitter or a .260-.280 guy we don't know yet; we need to see what he does in Double-A and Triple-A. But so far Reed's career is off to a fine start.

Grant D. asks: As a Jays fan I've noticed Simon Pond putting up huge numbers last year at Single A, and again this year at AA New Haven, yet I've never heard anything about him, anywhere. What's his story? Is he for real?

Pond is currently hitting .338 (.440 OBP, .513 SLG) at Double-A New Haven, with 17 doubles, 39 walks, and 33 strikeouts in 61 games. Last year, he hit .284 with 13 homers at Class A Dunedin. As a left-handed hitting third baseman with some apparent juice in his bat, you'd think he'd get some attention, but he doesn't. Why?

Two reasons: defense and age. First, he's made 20 errors in 53 games at third this year, an unacceptable ratio. He can also play first base, but doesn't have as much home run power as most people at that position, so he doesn't profile well there in the majors. Secondly, he is old for a prospect, being 26 years old and still in Double-A. He was originally in the Expos system, drafted in the eighth round in 1994 out of high school in British Columbia. He didn't do much in the Expos system, was traded to Cleveland in 2000, then joined the Jays as a minor-league free agent for '02. He's played better since joining the Toronto system, but due to his age, he projects as just an organization player or possible bench contributor.

He is hitting very well this year, and if he continues to do so, the Jays are open-minded enough to give him a trial at some point, though his defensive limitations will make it hard to fit him on the roster except on an emergency basis. I imagine we'll see Pond's name on Double-A and Triple-A rosters for the next seven or eight years, as he joins the ranks of minor-league journeymen looking for a cup of coffee.

John Sickels is the author of the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered from his Web site, JohnSickels.com. His biography of Bob Feller will be published this fall by Brassey's. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com.





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