First, I want to wish everyone a safe holiday weekend. Before dipping into the mailbag, I want to take a moment and talk about fastballs.

One of the most important components in prospect analysis is getting accurate velocity reports for pitchers. I try to see as many pitchers in person as possible, but no one can see everyone. For pitchers I can't see in person, I have to rely on reports from scouts, front offices, other journalists, interested fans, etc. Velocity reports are often exaggerated. If a pitcher throws six pitches at 90 mph and one at 93 mph, he will often be reported as having a "93-mph fastball" in the papers or on the telephone. For that reason, I try to be conservative when discussing velocity reports for pitchers I have not seen in person, since we don't want to mislead anyone.

	Foppert

This has come up recently in two cases, Jesse Foppert and Royce Ring. Foppert was widely reported as having a fastball timed as high as 99 mph, with regular velocity in the mid-90s. But this year, pitching for the Giants, he's more often in the 89-91 range, and a lot of Giants fans have been disappointed.

I saw Foppert pitch twice last year, once in Double-A and once in Triple-A, and both times he was consistently in the 94-96 range, at least according to the radar guns I was looking at. I did not personally see him hit 99 mph, but others, who would have no reason to lie about it, did. From watching him in person, it certainly seemed like he was capable of throwing that hard. For whatever reason, he has not had that sort of velocity this year, although his velocity has been up in his last couple of starts. He may never hit 99 again, but this 89-91 stuff he's been doing this year is several mph slower than what I saw in person last summer.

I wrote a quick report on Ring this week when he was traded from the White Sox to the Mets. After I wrote that report, I received a message from a reader who has seen Ring several times this summer, throwing just 88-90 mph. Again, this is a case of what I've seen in person not quite matching up with what other people have seen in different games under different conditions. I saw Ring pitch college ball last year, and he threw 91-93 mph in the game I saw.

The point of all this is pitcher velocity reports, even from the best of sources, should be taken with a grain of salt. I try to be as conservative as possible in my reports, generally giving a "in the range" report with a peak reading, reporting a pitcher with an "90-92 mph fastball, hitting 94 at times" for example. It is also true that some pitchers lose a bit of velocity between high school and/or college ball and pro ball, or even losing a bit between the minor leagues and the majors. Different playing conditions, weather, wear and tear on the arm, fatigue, nervousness, mechanical flaws, all can impact a pitcher's velocity in a negative way.

To the mailbag.

David H. writes: Given that the Phillies didn't have a first- or second-round pick. do you have an assessment of their draft for a Phils fan who feels a little left out? Also, are you still optimistic about Marlon Byrd being a quality player?

First, Byrd.

	Byrd

He got off to a slow start, but has played better recently now that his April knee injury has cleared up. He has his batting average up to .279 with a .365 OBP through 55 games. The power isn't there yet, with just a .377 slugging percentage, but I think that will come around. I'm still optimistic about his ability to become a steady, productive player.

Lacking first- and second-round picks, the Phillies needed to make a big push in the later rounds in the draft this year. Here are their picks in the first 10 rounds.

3) Tim Moss, 2B, University of Texas
4) Mike Bourn, OF, University of Houston
5) Javon Moran, OF, Auburn
6) Jordan Parraz, RHP, HS, Henderson, Nevada
7) Kyle Kendrick, RHP, HS, Mount Vernon, Washington
8) Matt Linder, RHP, HS, Thunder Bay, Ontario
9) Jason Crosland, 3B, Lamar CC (Colorado)
10) Matt Hopper, 1B, University of Nebraska

Moss, Bourn, and Parraz have yet to sign.

Speed looks like the main focus in this draft. Moss, Bourn, and Moran are all speed demons, among the fastest players in the college game this year, and will provide a quick boost of leg velocity for the farm system. However, all three have had trouble with strike zone judgment, and it remains to be seen how well they will adjust to wooden bats, if they'll show any power, or if they'll get on base enough to make their speed useful.

Parraz, Kendrick, and Linder are also risky guys historically, being high school right-handers. Parraz throws quite hard, but is unrefined in other ways. Kendrick doesn't throw quite as hard, but is very athletic and projectable. Linder has the least velocity of the three, but like Kendrick is a good athlete and projects well. None of these guys are expected to advance quickly.

Crosland and Hopper are power hitters with questionable defensive skills. It's too early to assess the later rounds at this point.

Overall, the first few rounds look pretty risky to me. The Phils are banking on the speed guys showing some plate discipline, the high school pitchers staying healthy and learning their craft, and the power hitters finding a position.

A Royals fan asks: What do you think of Jimmy Gobble, and Zach Greinke ... what's your timetable for when they will be in the big leagues? What do you also think about Colt Griffin and Mike Stodolka? Do you think they are the busts everyone is labeling them to be?

The Royals drafted high school pitchers in the first round three years in a row, 2000 (Stodolka), 2001 (Griffin) and 2002 (Greinke). Gobble was a supplemental first-round pick in '99. This group illustrates very well both the perils and potential rewards of high school pitching.

Stodolka hasn't shown the same zip to his pitches as a pro that he did in high school. His performances have been mediocre, or worse, and he's currently sidelined with arm trouble. Griffin has one of the best arms in the minor leagues, but is still trying to figure out what to do with it. He is currently at Burlington in the Class A Midwest League, pitching OK (3.92 ERA), but is still having serious issues with his command, and is repeating the level.

Gobble and Greinke have had more success. Gobble is at Double-A Wichita. He has slumped recently after a strong start, and probably won't be ready for major league action until some time next year. Greinke, on the other hand, has been brilliant as a pro, with a 1.24 ERA and 73/13 K/BB ratio in 80 innings this year in the Class A Carolina League. He may be the best right-handed pitching prospect in baseball right now.

At this point, Stodolka can be labeled a bust, although there is still a slight chance he could be useful. Griffin is still in the "unknown" category. Gobble looks pretty good, and Greinke has been excellent. Gobble will probably be the first of the group to reach the majors, and Greinke isn't far behind. If I had to put ETAs, I would go Gobbleinn 2004, Greinke in '05, Griffin in '07 and Stodolka a question mark. Of course, lots of things can change between now and then.

	Claussen

Janet T. writes: What do you think of Brandon Claussen, who was recently promoted to the major leagues by the Yankees?

Before blowing out his elbow and having Tommy John surgery last year, Claussen was probably the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. His recovery has been rapid and successful; I don't think many people thought he'd be appearing in the major leagues so quickly this year. He had a 1.34 ERA in six starts at Triple-A Columbus before being promoted, with a 27/5 K/BB ratio in 40 innings. His command is back, though from what I've been told he isn't throwing quite as hard as he did before the injury. That should come back in time. Even if it doesn't, he gets enough movement on his pitches to be successful when his command is on, which it has been so far.

So basically I like him, and am very impressed with his quick recovery from surgery. He's re-emerged as a fine prospect, no question.

John Sickels is the author of the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered from his Web site, JohnSickels.com. His biography of Bob Feller will be published this fall by Brassey's. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com.