Thanks to the wonders of satellite technology, Sunday I watched C.C. Sabathia start his first major-league game for the Indians. Here in Seattle, it was chilly and rainy. Upwards of 2,000 miles away in Cleveland, though, it was 73 degrees under a cloudless blue sky.
Of Sabathia's first 23 pitches, 23 were fastballs. He's got a great fastball, mid-90s and higher with decent movement, but there aren't many humans on this planet who can get away with throwing nothing but fastballs to major-league hitters. And Sabathia's not one of those humans. After Brady Anderson led off with a fly to left, Mike Bordick doubled off the center-field wall. Delino DeShields walked on five pitches (again, all fastballs), and then Jeff Conine hit a thigh-high fastball into the left-field bleachers.
Four batters into his debut and Sabathia was down 3-0.
But after throwing three more fastballs, Sabathia started mixing in his breaking ball, and suddenly he looked like one of the best pitching prospects on this planet, retiring 10 straight Orioles and permitting just one more hit and one more walk before getting lifted in the sixth. He didn't get a decision, but the Indians did come back to win, 4-3.
Without actually being there, I suspect that Cleveland's management, from Charlie Manuel all the way to Mark Shapiro and John Hart, were euphoric over Sabathia's performance. If he can pitch that well in his first start, at the tender age of 20, what will he do in a few months, or a few years?
To answer that question, I made a list of every 20-year-old pitcher in the major leagues since 1980. As it happens, only 49 pitchers have faced major-league hitters in their Age 20 season (the season in which they were 20 on July 1) since 1980.
However, I ignored those pitchers who debuted in September of their Age 20 season, because it's possible that it wasn't their talent that got them up, but the expanded roster. That left me with 37 pitchers.
Next, I removed all pitchers who didn't make at least one start. That left me with 30 pitchers. Thirty pitchers since 1980 who started at least one game in their Age 20 season and debuted before September 1 of that season.
Only 30 pitchers in 21 years, which means that C.C. Sabathia is, if nothing else, the newest member of a fairly exclusive club.
And as a group, that club performed quite well, posting a 4.07 composite ERA in the Age 20 seasons, and a solid 3.85 career ERA. However, the numbers are seriously skewed by a small number of pitchers. Only six of those 30 pitchers started 20 or more games, and they account for the lion's share of the innings pitched by the group. Those six? Fernando Valenzuela, Mike Witt, Dwight Gooden, Edwin Correa, Steve Avery and Rick Ankiel. All but Avery (3-11, 5.64) pitched well in their Age 20 season. That leaves 24 pitchers, and these guys didn't fare so well: 1,207 innings pitched with a 4.86 ERA. And remember, for most of the last 20 years, a 4.86 ERA was not close to the major-league average (as it was last year).
So it seems that most of the 20-year-old starters did not make positive contributions to their teams, which should be worrisome to the Indians, who of course have designs on a division title.
Then again, John Hart surely thinks that Sabathia has the talent to become the seventh 20-year-old pitcher since 1980 to start 20 games. After all, everyone thinks that their guy is "special," and so history is not particularly relevant in their particular case. But to paraphrase a tired old saying, those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, so Hart and his staff should probably take heed of the past.
Even if the past means last year. Sabathia posted a 3.54 ERA in 10 Class A starts, then a 3.59 ERA in 17 Double-A starts. Those are fine numbers for a 19-year-old pitcher at either of those levels, but not so fine for a pitcher with immediate designs on the major leagues. What's more, his strikeout-to-walk ratio in Double-A -- 90 strikeouts, 48 walks -- was just league average. These are the numbers of a pitcher who, last year at least, still lacked a bit of polish.
Maybe Hart is right, though. Maybe C.C. Sabathia really is ready to give the Indians enough quality innings to help them return to the postseason.
But what about those six pitchers who did make 20 or more starts in their Age 20 season? What happened to them? If Sabathia does become the seventh, what might he become after that?
In Tuesday's column, we'll try to answer those questions.
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His column runs Monday through Thursday. You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com.
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