Will the Rangers trade Pudge?
Last week, Peter Gammons answered that question with an honest, "It apparently is too early to tell ..."
Yesterday, Rangers owner Tom Hicks met with Ivan Rodriguez, and later answered that question with, "I told him we have absolutely no interest in trading him before June 2 ... He's the heart and soul of our team."
Frankly, I don't have any idea if the Rangers will trade Pudge, so let's address a related, but different, question ... Should the Rangers trade Pudge?
First, a few particulars:
1. Rodriguez's current contract runs through the 2002 season.
2. If he's still with the Rangers on June 2 -- that's only 12 days from today -- he'll become a so-called "10-and-5" guy, which means that he'll have been a major leaguer for 10 years, the last five of them with the same team. And once Pudge becomes a 10-and-5 guy, he'll have to approve any trade. Which leads us to ...
3. Even though his contract runs through the 2002 season, we're already talking about his next contract. And it's likely that if Rodriguez does agree to a trade, he would only do so after working out a new deal with his new team (along with, perhaps, a bonus from the Rangers).
4. And here's the kicker. That next deal will probably run in the neighborhood of $20 million per season, and run through (approximately) the 2008 season ... when Pudge will be 37 years old.
So what should the Rangers do?
I'll answer that question in a few minutes. But in addition to the four points listed above, we need to know just what the Rangers -- or another team -- will be getting for their money.
Let's start with Pudge's defensive contributions. Now, there are those who would argue that the catcher actually has very little, if anything, to do with the pitcher's performance. Mind you, I've never met any of these people, but I can assure you that they exist; I've got the names and e-mail addresses to prove it. And to tell you the truth, I'm not so sure that they're wrong.
But for the sake of argument, let's assume that they are wrong, that the catcher plays a significant role, or even an insignificant role, in his pitcher's fate. If Pudge were a great defensive catcher rather than "merely" a great throwing catcher -- which, of course, he is -- then what would we expect to find? Well, off the top of my head I can think of two things: a good pitching staff or, at the very least, a pitching staff that's better with Pudge behind the plate than without.
To test the first of those, let's go back to 1992, Rodriguez's first full season (and, not coincidentally, the first season's work for which he won a Gold Glove). I entered the innings pitched and earned runs for every American League club from '92 through 2000, which gave me nine-season composite ERAs for the 14 current AL franchises. Over that span, the Rangers rank 12th with a 4.80 team ERA.
"But," you protest, "it's not Pudge's fault! Look at what he's had to work with!"
Fair enough. We'll call it The Tony Muser Defense. But if pathetic pitchers are masking Pudge's brilliant pitcher-handling abilities, then we would expect those pitchers to do even worse when Pudge wasn't catching, right?
Thanks to the STATS Major League Handbook, we can check.
Pudge Others
Innings ERA Innings ERA
1992 983 3.81 478 4.69
1993 1117 4.16 321 4.71
1994 838 5.22 185 6.51
1995 1065 4.76 220 4.17
1996 1223 4.73 227 4.25
1997 1201 4.77 229 4.25
1998 1197 4.92 234 5.34
1999 1208 4.94 228 5.76
2000 736 5.35 693 5.69
One can see interesting cuts in the data here. Each season from 1992 through 1994, the Rangers' ERA was significantly lower when Pudge was catching than when he wasn't (in '92 and '93, Rodriguez's primary backup was Geno Petralli, generally considered subpar defensively). Each season from 1995 through 1997, the Rangers' ERA was significantly higher when Pudge was catching than when he wasn't. And each season from 1998 through 2000, the Rangers' ERA was lower when Pudge was catching than when he wasn't.
Over the entire nine seasons, Texas pitchers posted a 4.72 ERA with Rodriguez behind the plate (9,568 innings), and a 5.11 ERA (in 1,830 innings) without him.
Of course, those numbers contain the benefits of Pudge's amazing ability to limit the opposition's running game. What's more, simply by virtue of catching the great majority of the innings (last season notwithstanding), Rodriguez should know his pitchers better, right?
I believe Pudge is a very good, or perhaps great, defensive catcher. But of course, his greatest asset is obviously his throwing, which seems to become less and less important with each passing year. And let's be honest, folks, he's not exactly working miracles with the pitching staff this year.
And Pudge's hitting? Frankly, he's always been overrated, because most people ignore his low walk rate and his high double-play rate. That said, he is the second-best hitting catcher in the game (well, him or Jorge Posada) ... but for how long?
In Gammons' latest column, he enumerated the late-career woes of history's best catchers, and I'd like to expand on that theme a bit. When Pudge's current contract runs out, he'll be just short of 32 years old. I identified 10 great-hitting catchers -- Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, Gabby Hartnett, Ernie Lombardi and Ted Simmons -- and compared their hitting stats before they were 32 to their hitting stats after they turned 32.
Remember, these are (with the exception of Carter and Simmons) Hall of Fame catchers, the guys who stayed productive long enough to be rewarded with plaques in Cooperstown. Remember, too, that some of them shifted to other positions, at least part-time. Bench played third base, and some first base, too. After turning 33, Yogi Berra never caught more than 116 games in a season, instead spending some time in the outfield. After turning 34, Ted Simmons became a DH/first baseman. And even Fisk, who seemingly caught forever, DH'd occasionally (and spent a forgettable few weeks in the outfield).
Pre-32 32+
G/Season 121 104
R/150 G 80 62
RBI/150 G 94 80
On-Base .367 .345
Slugging .484 .435
OPS 851 780
All players decline as they get older, and this group's isn't as steep as I would have guessed. However, what's telling here is perhaps the first row. While the great-hitting catchers have generally played into their late 30s or (in the case of Fisk) early 40s, even those guys played less and less. (And for you students of baseball history, I didn't include Yogi Berra's 1965 season with the Mets, in which he played four games, or Ted Simmons' first two, in the study.)
Look, every time you sign a player to a contract, you're making a bet. Sometimes you make a lousy bet, and it pays off. Sometimes you make a great bet, and it doesn't. But most of the lousy best won't pay off, and most of the great bets do. And signing a 32-year-old catcher to a long-term contract, while perhaps not a lousy bet, almost certainly isn't a great bet. Or even a good one.
So if the Rangers shouldn't give Pudge $120 million for five or six years, does that mean they should trade him?
It depends. It depends on their chances of competing between now and the end of his current contract.
At this moment, the Rangers are 17 games out of first place in the AL West, and 14 games behind Cleveland in the wild-card standings. It's safe to say that the Rangers won't compete for anything this season, except for third place. If they're lucky.
So that leaves 2002. Will the Rangers be competitive next year? Barring a major investment in the offseason, it looks pretty unlikely. Four everyday players are in their late 30s, and while the Rangers do have some fine prospects waiting in the wings, it's unrealistic to expect them to play championship-quality baseball as rookies. What's more, neither the Mariners nor Athletics look like they're ready to collapse. That's not to say the Rangers can't contend -- stranger things have happened, at least on daytime TV -- but I wouldn't bet on it.
So yes, the Rangers should trade Ivan Rodriguez. He's been a wonderful player, and it's been a great run. But it's time to move on, time to build the franchise around Alex Rodriguez. This franchise is at a crossroads, and Tom Hicks and Doug Melvin have 12 days to decide which road to take.
Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer for ESPN.com. His column runs Monday through Thursday. You can e-mail Rob at rob.neyer@dig.com.
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