![]() |
| Wednesday, October 3 Maddux or Glavine? Doesn't matter By Rob Neyer ESPN.com |
||||||
|
Watching the Braves and Phillies last night, I heard Don Sutton raise an interesting point. Namely, that while the Braves still have to be considered favorites to win the East, how they win the East could have a big impact on their chances once they actually reach the postseason. Why? Greg Maddux started last night, which means that his next turn in the rotation comes Sunday. If the Braves have clinched by then, then Maddux won't pitch against the Marlins but will instead be held for Game 1 of the Division Series. But if the Braves have not clinched, then Maddux will have to pitch against the Marlins, which would leave him available for only one game of the Division Series rather than two. What does that mean for the Braves? Well, not as much as you might think. First of all, there's of course no guarantee that the Division Series will require a fifth game. There have been 24 Division Series since the current postseason format was adopted. Would you like to guess how many of them have gone the distance? Four. But if Maddux can't start in Game 1 of the Division Series and it does go five games, Tom Glavine will start twice instead. Maddux has allowed 2.58 runs per start (not including the start he exited after two batters); Glavine has allowed 2.62 runs per start. That is to say, there's no good reason to think it'll make much difference who starts Game 1 of the Division Series for the Braves, assuming of course that they even make it that far. And with Maddux supposedly suffering a slight arm problem, they might actually be better off with Glavine anyway. Of course, there's a similar story in Arizona, where Randy Johnson is still 11 strikeouts short of the single-season record, and will pitch Sunday in Milwaukee only if the Diamondbacks think they need to win. And that's at least moderately likely; the Giants simply have to gain one game in the standings before Sunday. That would leave them one game behind Arizona, and the Diamondbacks-Brewers game is scheduled to begin two hours earlier than the Giants-Dodgers game. Theoretically, then, Sunday afternoon Johnson could take the mound needing a win to put the Diamondbacks into the postseason, and 11 strikeouts to set a new record. And remember, the Brewers set their own record -- Most strikeouts, season -- each time they take the field.
Barry vs. Sammy, part 47 But here's one of them, variations of which have been proposed by a fair number of media types and ESPN.com visitors who took the time to send e-mail my way. It goes something like this ... "The Giants have a better offense than the Cubs do, which makes Sosa's contributions all the more valuable." I don't agree with the conclusion, but that's something of a philosophical issue. The real problem here is the premise that Bonds is surrounded by productive hitters while the Cubs lineup is Sosa and a bunch of banjo hitters.
The Giants have scored 4.84 runs per game this season.
The Giants rank sixth in the National League in runs. Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa both bat third in their lineups.
Giants No. 1 and No. 2 hitters have combined for a .340 on-base percentage.
Giants No. 4 and No. 5 hitters have combined for a .460 slugging percentage. (And I should note that our own David Schoenfield reported much of this same information last week. I repeat it here because apparently somebody missed David's column.) So let's see here ... Overall, the Cubs have actually scored virtually as many runs as the Giants have. And more to the heart of the matter, the hitters around Sosa have been slightly more productive than the hitters around Bonds, at least as it relates to Sosa's and Bonds' RBI and runs scored. So this idea that Sosa has piled up big numbers despite being handicapped by his teammates ... well, it simply doesn't stand up to the sort of analysis that anybody with a high-school degree and Internet access could perform in less than an hour. It's just too bad that a lot of people can't be bothered.
Rob Neyer's column will run Monday through Friday through the end of the regular season. He can be reached at rob.neyer@dig.com, and to order his new book, Feeding the Green Monster, click here. |
| |||||